2019 Zippo 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Saturday August 3rd, 3:18PM (EST) at Watkins Glen International
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

On Saturday, all eyes will turn to the Xfinity Series for road course racing at Watkins Glen International with the running of the Zippo 200. Tomorrow’s race marks the 1st of 3 road course events in the Xfinity Series over the next 4 races and perhaps even provides a prelude to Sunday’s Go Bowling at the Glen alongside the participation of a few Cup Series veterans. Among those popular names participating on Saturday includes Kyle Busch who has won in 3 of his 4 starts this year in the series. Obviously Busch will be a huge favorite once again as the best overall talent in the field. However, I do believe there are a few live dark horses that will challenge Busch at the front of the field once the green flag waves. We take the time to discuss the best betting options and provide our 2019 Zippo 200 race picks for Watkins Glen!

Unlike some venues where Kyle Busch has just dominated, Watkins Glen has not produced the same success rate for Rowdy. In fact, Busch has just 1 victory in 10 starts at the Glen in the Xfinity Series marking the worst win rate (10%) of any track in the series with at least 5 starts. With that being said, I believe Busch’s path to victory will be a lot easier on Saturday as the level of competition is relatively underwhelming. Tomorrow’s Xfinity Series entry list features Ryan Blaney from the Cup Series who is not necessarily known for his road course skills and a host of Xfinity Series regulars that simply lack talent and experience. In practices earlier today, Busch posted the fastest lap in both sessions along with the best averages meaning the #18 ik9 Toyota will enter Saturday’s race with dominating potential.

Like I said before, Busch’s win rate is not exactly overwhelming and little mistakes can be extremely costly at the Glen. So if Busch has trouble in any sort of way, rest assured the competition will be ready to pounce. Our goal is to target those drivers that have the best opportunity at positioning themselves for a shot at victory if Busch runs into trouble. So let’s shift our focus towards the drivers to target on Saturday. Additionally, let’s discuss a few drivers that should exceed expectations on Saturday to target in H2H match-ups. I am sure Busch is going to saturate some risk potential on the future bets especially if we attempt to use the #18 as a parlay starter. However, we should be ready to pull the trigger on a few H2H match-ups because road courses are typically good tracks for betting match-ups.

Drivers to Target

Aside from Busch, Ryan Blaney is currently listed as the 2nd leading favorite ahead of tomorrow’s Zippo 200. I must admit that I am rather confuses to see Blaney at such low odds given the fact he has never performed extremely well at the road courses. Then again if you think back to my sentiments about the level of competition in tomorrow’s field then perhaps Blaney’s talent alone keeps him at lower odds. Blaney did post solid laps times in practices today finishing P2 and P5 on the board. So perhaps the #12 has the speed to stay upfront for those that are wanting to put a favorite on their lineup at better odds than the #18. Personally, I just do not trust Blaney based on the current odds from the #12 and believe the risk far outweighs the reward.

A couple of drivers that I believe do meet the risk/reward criteria include the likes of AJ Allmendinger, Austin Cindric, and Justin Allgaier. All 3 of those drivers have been at 10-1 or better this week in terms of odds. I took a stab at Allgaier early in the week because of his prestigious resume at road courses which includes wins at Road America and Mid-Ohio. Allgaier has also posted finishes of 4th and 3rd over the last two races at the Glen. Based on the talent in tomorrow’s field, Allgaier has to be considered a threat. Likewise, the Dinger has to be considered a strong driver tomorrow based on his road course background. Allmendinger surprised me with his strong effort at Daytona last month and appears to be right at home with this part-time role with Kaulig Racing. Allmendinger was in the top 4 spots in both practices today so he definitely looks like he has another ride capable of contending for victory.

Meanwhile Austin Cindric may just be my favorite bet on Saturday from a dark horse standpoint. Cindric has shown his road course talent in the Truck Series and this style of racing suits his skillset. I thought Cindric was very strong in practices with probably the best consistency behind the #18 car. I will definitely find a way to have Cindric in my line-up tomorrow and will likely put a lot of focus on his H2H potential as well. If I can get a match-up with Cindric paired up against any of his normal competitors at decent odds, I will have full confidence backing the #22 on Saturday as I expect both car/driver to be really strong. Speaking of H2H match-ups, move Noah Gragson up towards the upper echelon of drivers who looked really strong in practices. I personally never thought of Gragson as a road course threat but the #9 was really solid in practices and may be worth consideration in H2H match-ups as well.

Drivers to Fade

One of the popular names to fade this week includes Tyler Reddick. In fact, Reddick may be worth fade potential over the next several weeks at these road course venues because he clearly struggles at these layouts. Unfortunately, odds makers were on top of their game this week and there were not many good match-ups to fade Reddick. Unless that changes, we may have to target sharper fade options. My sharp fade for Saturday will be looking to go against the #98 of Chase Briscoe.

Last week, we had Briscoe on our lineup when he pulled out a huge win at Iowa. With the help of new tires, Briscoe was able to get by Christopher Bell in the closing laps for a fun victory. If you combine that victory with Briscoe’s win on the Charlotte ROVAL last year, I think we have a perfect scenario where expectations may be a bit too high. Nobody has mentioned the fact that this will be Briscoe’s first start at Watkins Glen in any of the top touring series and I noticed that consistency was a struggle for the #98 car on Saturday. There were some solid laps times but there were also some laps that were not good. Considering the Glen has a few heavy breaking zones that are tough to navigate in racing conditions, I think the lack of experience could cause the #98 to struggle on Saturday. As a result, I will be adding Briscoe to my fade list!

2019 Zippo 200 Optimal Lineup

*TBD after qualifying on Saturday*

2019 Zippo 200 Race Picks

*Final

AJ Allmendinger +740 (1.25 units)
Austin Cindric +1000 (1 unit)
Justin Allgaier +1100 (1 unit) *early play
Ryan Preece +5500 (.25 unit) *early play

Two Team Parlays

AJ Allmendinger +140 over Ryan Blaney
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

Noah Grayson +155 over Tyler Reddick
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Justin Allgaier +150 over Ryan Blaney (2 units) *early play