2019 Ultimate Tailgating 200 Race Picks
NASCAR Gander Outdoors Truck Series Betting Preview
Saturday February 23rd, 2019 4:30PM EST
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com
The Gander Outdoors Truck Series will drop the green flag on Saturday for the running of the Ultimate Tailgating 200 at Atlanta Motor Speedway. The green flag is scheduled at approximately 4:30PM (EST) but that ultimately depends on the finishing time of the Xfinity Series’ Rinnai 250 which precedes the Truck Series race. However, NASCAR’s double header on Saturday presents several betting opportunities as we turn our focus towards the first traditional oval racing of the season. With two practices in the books, let’s discuss what we should expect on Saturday in the Truck Series as we provide our 2019 Ultimate Tailgating 200 race picks for Atlanta!
There is still some level of unknown ahead of Saturday’s Atlanta 200 or newly renamed Ultimate Tailgating 200. Atlanta Motor Speedway is a tough track for handicapping because there is such a heavy premium on long run speed. Due to the rugged surface at Atlanta, lap times fall off significantly each lap. On paper, practice speeds often provide a certain level of deception. To be fast at Atlanta, you have to be good at the end of the run opposed to being fast the first few laps which are often shown on practice sheets. Even in practices on Thursday, only a handful of drivers ran more than 10 consecutive laps which condenses our expectations of who has the best long run speed.
With those things being said, I can say with complete confidence that Kyle Busch looked incredible in race trim. Busch is looking to break the Truck Series all-time record in wins this weekend and judging by Thursday’s final practice; he has an excellent opportunity to find victory lane. Busch put together a 20 lap run in final practice that was downright intimidating. At the end of his run, he was running lap times in the 32.1-32.2 time brackets. To put those lap times into perspective, they were 2-3 tenths to the good of the nearest competitors for drivers that ended their race trim runs. To state it simply, Busch was in a different zip code in race trim and it is going to be hard to beat the #51 truck without some unforeseen misfortune.
Aside from Busch, Johnny Sauter was probably the next best group in terms of race speed. I know stating Kyle Busch and Johnny Sauter as favorites is basically stating the obvious. However, I was not sure if we would see the same speed from Sauter this early in the year after the late switch to Thorsport Racing this offseason. However, Sauter and the #13 team were really solid on Thursday especially in race trim. I cannot say the same for the likes of Todd Gilliland, Brett Moffitt, and Stewart Friesen. I subconsciously expected those drivers to be among the weekly favorites this season as they build off strong 2018 campaigns.
Instead, there were some cobwebs on the 1.5 mile package from those teams. Despite posting the fastest lap in practice 1, Friesen struggled for the majority of the afternoon with the balance and overall handling of the #52 truck. Moffitt was decent in race trim but I personally expected him to be better. Meanwhile, Gilliland and the #4 team was “off” in the early practice on Thursday before getting things turned around late in the afternoon. Before the dust settled, Gilliland appeared to have a much better truck in race trim so it will be interesting to see how that group races on Saturday.
A few more quick observations include the following: last week’s winner Austin Hill had clutch/transmission issues in the 1st practice but rallied in the final practice to show decent speed. Rookie Sheldon Creed looks like he is going to be the real deal. I’m sure there are going to be growing pains but you can’t ignore the raw talent. He jumped right to the top of the board in his first run. Grant Enfinger did not have very good long run speed. Matt Crafton really liked the handling on his truck for what it’s worth. Timothy Peters and Ross Chastain are flashy names that will garner some attention on the entry list. However, I’m just not sure either driver has the equipment with Niece Motorsports to be considered a “threat.” The organization is rather young and moving into their first full-time season in the Truck Series.
Draftkings is featuring the Truck Series in 2019 which is a big win for fantasy players. For that reason, I believe the likes of Parker Kligerman and Anthony Alfredo are some lower tier options that could bring value if their qualifying results do not overachieve. Kligerman has looked pretty decent from a lap times standpoint and I simply consider Alfredo as an option based on his asking price on Draftkings. So keep those two drivers on your radar for value purposes.
2019 Ultimate Tailgating 200 Race Picks
*Final
Kyle Busch -130 (3 units)
Johnny Sauter +1150 (1 unit)
H2H Match-Ups
Todd Gilliland -120 over Sheldon Creed (2 units) *early play
Johnny Sauter -115 over Stewart Friesen (2 units)
Ross Chastain -105 over Timothy Peters (1 unit) *early play
