2019 Toyota Save Mart 350 Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday June 23rd, 3:13PM (EST) at Sonoma Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

NASCAR’s best will face the ultimate driver’s test this weekend with the running of the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway. Not only does this Sunday’s race welcome the first taste of road course racing this season but it also introduces an entirely new layout at Sonoma. Technically the layout is not new but Sonoma Raceway has reverted back to the 2.51 mile road course that incorporates the carousel from turns 4-7. The last time NASCAR utilized the full 2.51 mile road course was back in 1997 meaning none of the current drivers have any relative experience on this layout. We have already seen drivers struggle through practices and it’s safe to say this Sunday’s race will be unlike any other in recent memory at Sonoma. However, we are ready for 350 miles of road course racing and ready to put our money towards the drivers that appear poised for victory. Check out all of our observations from practices and betting advice as we provide our 2019 Toyota/Save Mart 350 race picks!

The return of the carousel has definitely added another degree of difficulty towards NASCAR’s first road course challenge of the season from a driver standpoint. From a betting standpoint, there is another angle that we must consider in that the new 2.51 mile course will make lap times even longer compared to the old 1.99 mile surface we are accustomed to at Sonoma. Therefore fuel mileage and pit strategy will become even more important as this race unfolds on Sunday. The new stage lengths will fall on laps 20, 40, and conclude on lap 90 in the final stage. Since the fuel window is approximately 31-34 laps, teams could technically make this a two stop race.

We know that track position is extremely important at road course races and it would seem that the fewer stops would be the optimal strategy. However, tire wear is also very significant at Sonoma with lap times falling off as much as a couple of seconds in as little as 10 laps. Therefore while we certainly will put our focus towards the best drivers/cars that are prepared for the new Sonoma, we will also need a little luck to make sure our picks hit the correct strategy calls on pit road. I would highly anticipate that most teams will pit before the end of the first 2 stages and once more during the final stage. However, we know that drivers and teams will try to mix things up to create opportunities. Therefore from a betting standpoint, it will not hurt to spread out our betting options in case strategy changes the outcome of the Toyota Save Mart 350.

In terms of handicapping, I think we should point out the drivers that have clearly defined themselves as the best road course talents in the business. Kyle Busch (4), Martin Truex (3), and Kevin Harvick (2) are the only active drivers in the Cup Series will multiple wins on road courses. Perhaps unsurprisingly, those 3 drivers are also among the top 4 drivers in the Cup Series on road course layouts going back to 2017 over the last 5 road course races. Truex leads all drivers with a lucrative 122.8 average rating during that time period. Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, and surprisingly Chase Elliott are the only other drivers that have eclipsed a plus 100 rating over the last 5 road course races combined. In terms of notable mentions, the next tier of drivers with ratings above 90 include the likes of Kurt Busch, Clint Bowyer, Brad Keselowski, and Denny Hamlin. I mention these numbers because we should establish a baseline for the “better” road course talents and these drivers have supplanted positive trends in terms of both performance and finishes.

Toyota Save Mart 350 Practice Notes

As we move past the historical narrative, let’s now shift our focus towards observations from both of Friday’s practices as another component towards our handicapping formula for the Toyota Save Mart 350. In Happy Hour on Friday, I thought Martin Truex Jr clearly emerged as the driver to beat on the stopwatch. Truex’s lap times were fast and very consistent. I already mentioned above that Truex has the highest driver rating over the last 5 road course races and now it appears he has the car to go after another road course victory. The #19 car was already on my radar this week specifically from a tire wear standpoint. I have made mention on multiple occasions this season that the #19 team has excelled on the high tire wear tracks and I think that is an important factor for Sunday’s race. Needless to say, Truex has checked off everything that I wanted to see this week and he is clearly my overall favorite.

As we know, we cannot put all of our money on a single driver. Therefore, let’s talk about a few other observations from practices that are worth noting. Two of the other heavy favorites in Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch surprisingly struggled. Harvick’s struggles were directly the result of a tight setup and the team made some big changes before Saturday’s impound qualifying. While Harvick did not look great in practices, his long run speed and overall talent deserve the ultimate respect. For Kyle Busch, he struggled far more than anyone would have expected on Friday. I counted 3 times Kyle Busch ran through turn 4 and another solo incident where he spun coming out of turn 1. Busch’s car was obviously not handling well and never looked comfortable throughout either 90 minute session. I respect the hell out of Busch’s talent but it only takes 1 mistake like we saw on Friday to lose enough track position to take him out of consideration for the win on Sunday.

A few other quick observations include Kyle Larson, Alex Bowman, and Clint Bowyer who are all trending in the right direction. Larson laid down several fast laps and will arguably be one of the talked about drivers heading into Sunday. However, I would point out that we have seen the fast lap speed from Larson in the past at road course races but his long run speed is still the biggest question mark. Larson’s driving style and potentially setup have rendered horrible long run speed on the road course races in the past which remains the biggest liability for the #42 team ahead of Sunday’s green flag. On the other side of that long run speed spectrum, both Alex Bowman and Clint Bowyer were really solid on the long haul. Bowyer entered the week as one of the main favorites and I was hoping his odds would improve. However, that appears to be wishful thinking at this point. For Alex Bowman, I think we should consider the #88 a sneaky betting option. When I say sneaky betting option, I am not necessarily saying in terms of an outright win but more in the realm of betting match-ups. Bowman has literally improved in every road course start and is becoming a decent talent. He finished 9th in this race last year and provides some value in terms of match-ups against intermediate opposing talent.

Drivers to Fade

With the introduction of the carousel and this relatively new layout, I think we should seize the opportunity to fade drivers that have struggled with the 2.51 mile layout. I think Kyle Busch is a considerable fade among the overall favorites due to his consistent struggles throughout practice. Despite having 2 Sonoma wins, Busch has finished outside the top 10 in 8 of his 14 career starts at Sonoma. It is literally hit or miss with the #18 car at the road course races and I cannot help but think all of the struggles this team had on Friday along with the possible continuance of those issues into the weekend.

A few other drivers that are also high on my fade list includes the likes of Austin Dillon, Brad Keselowski, and Ryan Preece. Austin Dillon is just awful at the road course tracks specifically Sonoma. I have yet to see match-ups posted as I write this preview but Dillon should be an underdog in nearly every match-up. If you can find any match-ups near even money against Dillon, I would fade the #3 with complete confidence. I think similar standpoints could be geared towards both Bubba Wallace and Ryan Preece who have limited road course experience in their careers. Wallace has consistently got himself into trouble in these events and Preece struggled immensely in his first taste of Sonoma Raceway on Friday. Another more popular name that deserves fade consideration includes Brad Keselowski. Team Penske cars were off on Friday but more importantly Keselowski has just one Top 10 finish in his career at Sonoma. If you can find a decent driver paired against the #2 at reasonable odds, Keselowski may be worth fade consideration as well.

Toyota Save Mart 350 Dark Horses

Like I said earlier, it is not a bad idea to have a few dark horses or at least intermediate betting options on your lineup this week in the event track position and/or pit strategy provides a surprising outcome. If you are looking at extreme dark horses, Matt Dibenedetto and Chris Buescher provide some upside. However, I am mostly focused on those drivers as fantasy value options. In terms of drivers with more legitimate winning chances, I believe Denny Hamlin, Kurt Busch, and Jimmie Johnson will be your best options in terms of betting odds.

Hamlin and Johnson were both solid in practices and have the track resume to warrant betting attention. Hamlin has 2 wins already this year yet remains underrated as a road course talent in recent years. Hamlin is also another driver that has really excelled at the tire wear tracks this season. For the 7-time champion Jimmie Johnson, I know he is probably in fade mode for most bettors. Obviously it seems like Johnson is on the downtrend of his historic career but he remains one of the better drivers at Sonoma Raceway. If there is a big number next to the #48 on Sunday, it may be worth a small play. Meanwhile, Kurt Busch did not show the greatest speed in practices. However, I am not that concerned about Busch’s practice observations and he always seems to find the front at these types of races. If anything Friday’s practice session, just helped bettors get a better number for the elder Busch.

Practice Data

*Data excludes warm-up, cool down, or any other laps were drivers were not at full speed.

	Avg. Speed	Timed Laps
William Byron	93.06	17
Jimmie Johnson	92.95	10
Martin Truex	92.89	18
Chris Buescher	92.69	18
Matt Dibenedetto	92.68	25
Clint Bowyer	92.67	29
Denny Hamlin	92.65	26
Kyle Larson	92.62	20
Alex Bowman	92.61	25
Ryan Blaney	92.55	20
Erik Jones	92.54	19
Chase Elliott	92.53	22
Ricky Stenhouse	92.52	15
Kyle Busch*	92.52	14
Paul Menard	92.49	15
Brad Keselowski	92.48	25
Aric Almirola	92.39	22
Daniel Suarez	92.39	18
Kevin Harvick	92.32	21
Kurt Busch	92.27	22
Joey Logano	91.77	31

*Kyle Busch had several laps excluded due to incidents described previously. If laps are not up to speed, they are excluded to provide the best averages of cars at full speed.

Draftkings Toyota Save Mart 350 Optimal Lineup

2019 Toyota Save Mart 350 Race Picks

*Final

Chase Elliott +1000 (1 unit)
Joey Logano +1500 (1 unit)
Kyle Larson +1500 (.5 unit)(cover)
Denny Hamlin +1500 (.75 unit) *early play
Clint Bowyer +2500 (.5 unit)
Jimmie Johnson +5000 (.25 unit)
William Byron +10000 (.25 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Christopher Bell +150 wins CircuitCity.com 250 (win)
Martin Truex Jr +640 wins Toyota Save Mart 350
Risking 1 unit to win: +1750

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Jimmie Johnson +125 over Ryan Blaney (3 units)
Clint Bowyer +135 over Kurt Busch (3 units)
Martin Truex Jr -115 over Kyle Busch (2 units)
Chris Buescher -115 over Michael McDowell (2 units)
Denny Hamlin -145 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Jimmie Johnson +340 wins Group C (1 unit)(Suarez, Blaney, Keselowski)
Chris Buescher +800 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Matt Dibenedetto +1700 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)