2019 Sugarlands Shine 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander Outdoors Truck Series Betting Predictions
Saturday October 12th, 1:10PM (EST) at Talladega Superspeedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

For the first time in nearly a month, the Gander Outdoors Truck Series will roar to life at the high banks of Talladega for superspeedway playoff racing in the Sugarlands Shine 250. Tomorrow’s Sugarlands Shine 250 will officially kick off the 2nd round in the Truck Series’ playoffs which features 6 drivers who will be fighting to keep their championship hopes alive. Beyond the championship picture, superspeedway racing will bring unprecedented drama this week in both Trucks and Cup Series’ races. As we prepare for the ultimate wildcard in the playoffs, we take this time to breakdown the best betting options and provide our 2019 Sugarlands Shine 250 race picks!

Unlike the Xfinity and Cup Series, the Truck Series has only participated in one superspeedway race this year which come back in speedweeks at Daytona. The Truck Series schedule traditionally provides just one race at Daytona and Talladega each year. Therefore, we don’t get the opportunity of analyzing additional races to handicap the better superspeedway talents like we do in the higher series’. As a result, we are perhaps at a bigger disadvantage than normal. Not only is this style of racing unpredictable by nature but the field is compiled of mostly inexperienced talent that can easily turn a superspeedway race upside down. So what does that mean from an expectation and predictions standpoint? Well let’s discuss our approach to tomorrow’s Sugarlands Shine 250.

Betting Strategy

Any time the superspeedway races roll around, my main focal point is always geared towards “value.” Because there are so many potential winners in this style of racing, it is always a good idea to downsize risk per bet and broaden the amount of overall bets. Instead of taking 3-4 drivers at 1 unit each, take some half unit and ¾ unit plays backing 5-6 drivers. Therefore, we allow more opportunity based on variance while keeping our total risk relatively the same. I sincerely believe that is the best long-term strategy for superspeedway racing because you are staying within the normal range of risk while maximizing profit opportunities.

In the past, my picks at superspeedway races could be a result of numerous angles. Ultimately, I like to have guys that I believe will put themselves in position for victory and are aggressive enough to make the necessary moves in those final laps to “secure the flag.” The main theme that I always target at these race surrounds finding “value” in all my picks. I have often faded the “favorites” because of saturated odds and have chosen drivers based on “value” alone in many instances. For tomorrow’s Sugarlands Shine 250, I am going to change up the formula slightly. Instead of focusing solely on value picks, I am going to put together a line-up with drivers who I think are simply the best superspeedway racers. If I go a little higher than more normal superspeedway risks, I will live with it. Luckily we have done really well this season, especially in recent weeks. So in some weird way, I feel like we have a freeroll this week. Instead of worrying too heavily on risks, it’s time to go after the win. If we fail to cash, we still have profit to fall back on from the past several weeks.

Betting Targets

If you noticed in my early plays email, I did something I rarely ever do at a superspeedway race by backing the overall favorite. I took Ross Chastain at just better than 8-1 odds because I thought it was a fair number for the most threatening guy in the field. Chastain proved in the Xfinity Series race at Daytona that he is going to be very aggressive getting to the front, very aggressive blocking, and anything else needed to get the victory. Chastain’s driving style gives him boom or bust potential at Talladega this week. If he happens to get out front at any part in this race, look out because he is going to be tough to pass.

For the rest of the competition, Austin Hill proved that he could get the job done back at Daytona in rather impressive fashion. Hill actually led the opening practice on Friday and will likely be one of the guys at the front of the field. I really like Hill’s chances but I don’t believe he should be listed with the favorites in terms of odds. All of the Kyle Busch Motorsports trucks involving Todd Gilliland, Harrison Burton, and Riley Herbst had noticeable speed in practices. I’m not sure if that practice observation has any substances towards tomorrow’s race but it is worth mentioning. Grant Enfinger, Brett Moffitt, and Johnny Sauter are experienced talents that have proven superspeedway backgrounds. I actually believe Enfinger may be the most talented superspeedway driver but his betting odds are rather risky if you consider Enfinger’s extremely low career win ratio.

Though Matt Crafton does not have the greatest superspeedway resume on paper, the driver of the #88 has supported an average driver rating greater than 90 over the last two races at Talladega which is pretty impressive. Crafton is currently listed at slightly better odds that the group of favorites so he may fall into the acceptable “value” category. Lastly if you are wanting a few long shots, don’t overlook guys like Clay Greenfield, Brennan Poole, and Timothy Peters. Peters has been the best driver at Talladega in recent years and scored that memorable victory in this race one year ago in a part-time start role. Peters returns this week with similar ambitions this week with 3 victories in the last 5 races at Talladega. For Greenfield and Poole, both drivers have displayed their talent in this type of racing in the past and provide lottery style odds could pay big dividends.

Drivers to Fade

For superspeedway racing, I don’t recommend H2H match-ups or fantasy line-ups because these races are more about luck than skill. With that being said, I may take a big plus money match-up with the simple hopes to have a parlay available for Sunday. I would love to have a live parlay with both Logano/Keselowski at Talladega as the backbone of my line-up. For that reason alone, I will likely have some type of parlay starter for tomorrow’s Sugarlands Shine 250 if the odds are fair.

The drivers that I have labeled as potential fades surrounds the likes of John Hunter Nemechek and Sheldon Creed. For John Hunter, I just don’t believe he is a good driver at this style of racing. I have watched him in several superspeedway races and he rarely makes things happen. If you are content with riding mid-pack, your luck is eventually going to run out in most superspeedway races and that explains John Hunter’s career in these races. At Talladega alone, John Hunter has 4 starts with a best finish of 6th. More importantly, John Hunter has failed to finish 2 out of his 4 Talladega starts and has never led a single lap in either start. I like those trends for a driver that I am thinking of possibly fading.

For Creed, the angle is much different. We don’t really know how good Creed is at this style of racing. We do know the young driver has been performing really well in recent weeks 5 straight finishes of 6th or better. With that being said, I still don’t think Creed deserves to be getting “favorite” type odds. This is still a very inexperienced superspeedway driver that has a lot of learning ahead of him. For that factor alone, Creed deserves to be receiving intermediate-range type odds. I simply cannot find any justification in Creed’s odds being the same as Hill, Chastain, Moffitt, and Enfinger. If Creed makes a good qualifying effort tomorrow to sustain his current price, there could be some high quality plus odds match-ups fading the #2 that may just be too good to pass up.

No fantasy optimal line-up this week. Take advantage of drivers starting in the rear, set your line-up, and pray for good luck!

2019 Sugarlands Shine 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Ross Chastain +820 (1 unit) *early play
Harrison Burton +1540 (.75 unit)
Matt Crafton +1540 (.75 unit)
Tyler Ankrum +2750 (.5 unit)
Riley Herbst +3000 (.25 unit) *early play
Austin Wayne Self +8800 (.25 unit) *early play
Brennan Poole +8800 (.25 unit) *early play

Two Team Parlay

Matt Crafton +115 over Sheldon Creed
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD