STP 500 Early Preview

by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

NASCAR’s West Coast swing is officially in the rear-view mirror on the heels of Kyle Busch’s historic 200th win in the Auto Club 400 on Sunday. From one of the biggest ovals on circuit to one of the smallest, NASCAR heads to Martinsville Speedway this weekend for the running of the STP 500. As we prepare for a completely different type of racing this weekend at Martinsville, I wanted to provide my weekly thoughts about the upcoming weekend, the racing package, and all other topics that are worth discussing. Take a look at some of the “early” discussions for this week’s STP 500 at Martinsville!

Martinsville Speedway by the numbers
Martinsville Speedway, nicknamed the paperclip for its short half-mile layout, is one of the oldest tracks in NASCAR with racing that goes back to 1949. The King Richard Petty owns 15 victories at Martinsville which stands as the most wins all-time. In the modern era of racing, Jimmie Johnson has made Martinsville his stomping grounds. Johnson owns 9 victories and also owns the best average finish (8.08) among active drivers which includes 34 career starts. In the most recent years, Kyle Busch has emerged as the potential top dog at Martinsville though teammate Denny Hamlin’s 5 victories could make an argument. Still, Busch has posted a lucrative 2.85 average finishing position over the last 7 races with top 5 finishes in each start and two victories during that stretch.

Considering the recent momentum that Busch has shown in the Cup Series including back to back wins at Phoenix and Fontana, it will not be any secret that the #18 will once again be the overall favorite once odds are released and should have a legitimate shot to score his 3rd straight victory. From a statistical standpoint, I would imagine the likes of Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano will be among the heavy favorites as well. Keselowski has recorded top 5 finishes in 6 of his last 8 starts at the paperclip which includes a 2017 victory in the STP 500. Meanwhile, Joey Logano has the 2nd best average over the last 10 Martinsville races behind Kyle Busch with several quality finishes. Logano is also the most recent winner at Martinsville stemming from his victory in the First Data 500 last October.

Drivers to potentially fade this week
If things go according to plan, Kyle Larson and Kevin Harvick could be excellent fades this weekend. I was probably one of the only people on earth fading both Larson and Harvick last weekend which somehow worked out. However, I just have not seen the speed that we expect from Harvick and Larson so far this year. Harvick has shown quality speed but they still need to find a bit more before the #4 team breaks through with a victory. Meanwhile, Larson and the #42 team are not even in the ballpark when you consider overall speed. Larson posted a solid 6th place finish at Phoenix but finished 12th on all other standard ovals (Atlanta, Las Vegas, and Auto Club). It has been pretty obvious that the #42 team does not have a good grip on this new package and they need to make improvements to fight back into the top echelon of the competition where they belong.

For this week’s race at Martinsville, I like fading both Harvick and Larson for multiple reasons. Not only does neither team have “momentum” but both drivers have a disappointing resume at Martinsville. Harvick is a former Martinsville winner but he has also recorded just 5 different top 5 finishes in 35 career starts. Harvick has finished 10th or worse in 4 of the last 6 starts at Martinsville. Those stats are not biased in the fact that the #4 car wrecked, had equipment failure, but are mainly a result of simply not being very good.

For Larson, he has been even worse at Martinsville which is honestly not that surprising when you understand Larson’s driving style. Larson is one of those talents that can drive a car extremely deep into the corner, carry a lot of speed, and get back to the throttle quickly while relying on his natural talent to control it off the corners. None of those qualities are important at Martinsville. To run well at the paperclip, you need ultimate consistency, a car that will continuously rotate throughout the corner, and a driver that can save the rear tires for the long run. Larson has not found that magical Martinsville formula and has posted just 1 top 10 finish in 10 career starts.

Numbers are obviously not always the perfect indicator of upcoming performance. However I believe we can trust the numbers this week with Larson because this new package will not make things easier for the #42 driver. With the higher spoilers, corner speed will increase this week which will create a more significant difference in speed with tire wear. I am not saying that tire wear will increase more than in previous races but it will have a bigger impact on lap times once it does. Larson’s biggest issue historically at Martinsville has been wearing out the rear tires and if that happens again this week; it will be even more costly for the #42 team.

Sleepers – Martin Truex Jr and Clint Bowyer
I never like giving sleeper predictions until I have seen the cars unload off the hauler and had a chance to examine lap times. It is also probably worth noting that a driver is not a true “sleeper” if they are the defending winner of the race. However, I feel like Bowyer has always been a “sleeper” driver and never one to be considered a favorite. For this week’s race, everyone should keep their eyes on the #14 team for a shot at the repeat. When Bowyer has been in good equipment, he has always run extremely well at Martinsville. Since joining Stewart-Haas Racing, Bowyer has posted finishes of 7th, 3rd, 1st, and 21st with the latter the result of a late race spin after racing for the majority of the day inside the top 10 despite significant handling issues.

With those stats in mind, I think everyone should keep the #14 on your radar this week. Bowyer is not a driver that is going to turn a lot of heads in practices but he will be there when it counts if the car is decent. Likewise, I think Martin Truex Jr remains a sleeper again this week. I stated last week that Truex is going to win soon because of the #19 team’s performance particularly on long runs. Truex got into an incident at Auto Club Speedway which hurt the car but was still able to rally for an 8th place finish after several repair efforts. Before the incident, Truex was one of the fastest cars on the track which has been the case in each of the last few races as a result of their brilliant long run speed. Furthermore in the last few races at Martinsville, Truex has been surprisingly strong despite 0 wins throughout his career on short tracks. Truex has finished 2nd, 4th, and 3rd in the last 3 races and honestly could have won two of those events. If this #19 team can nail the long run setup again this week, I would not be surprised if they pulled away with the outright victory!