2019 Sport Clips Haircuts VFW 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Saturday August 31st, 2:43PM (EST) at Darlington Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

NASCAR’s throwback weekend will kick off on Saturday when the Xfinity Series drops the green flag for the Sport Clips Haircuts VFW 200 at Darlington Raceway. Along with the old school paint schemes, fans will get a treat as Dale Earnhardt Jr returns to action for a one race deal with the #8 team with a paint scheme that will honor his father Dale Earnhardt Sr’s first career Cup Series start in the 1975 World 600. Along with Dale Jr, a few other popular names via the likes of Denny Hamlin and Ryan Blaney will also join the Xfinity Series regulars in a 200 mile battle for a victory at one of the most infamous venues in motorsports. At this time, we shift our focus towards the betting side of Saturday’s race and provide our 2019 Sport Clips Haircuts VFW 200 race picks for Darlington!

Earlier today, both Cup and Xfinity Series teams participated in two separate practices among each series in preparation for this weekend’s races. The overall favorite heading into the Sport Clips Haircuts VFW 200 was Denny Hamlin who was listed at 2-1 odds before practices began. However, Hamlin suffered a setback in the opening practice when the #18 machine got into the wall and the team was forced into a backup car. The #18 team was still working on the car for the first half of Happy Hour but eventually got the car on the track. Hamlin was able to post the 6th fastest time in Happy Hour despite the minimal on-track time. The good news is that Hamlin is by far the most talented driver in the field on Saturday if you compare Darlington resumes. Hamlin has 5 prior Xfinity Series victories at Darlington along with 2 additional wins in the Cup Series against the Lady in Black. So while there may not have been a ton of confidence or time to get the car dialed in on Saturday, I am not sure if that removes Hamlin from the overall favorite position. If anything, it makes Hamlin’s odds a little bit riskier.

For the rest of the notable non-Xfinity regulars, Ryan Blaney did not look strong in either practice session. To be fair, Blaney has never been overly strong in his prior Xfinity Series starts but I thought the #12 car would have been better in practices, especially in terms of takeoff speed. Dale Earnhardt Jr did not look bad despite not being in a car for more than a year. JR finishes 5th on the board in the opening practice and fell to 10th in Happy Hour. Earnhardt stated the team setup the car on the “tight” side to build stability due to his layoff and were working to free the car up in final practice. So I am not sure if they have the greatest “race” speed unless they can free up the #8 car. However, you can be assured the JR. Motorsports cars as a group have speed. Along with Earnhardt, both Noah Gragson and Justin Allgaier finished 1-2 in Happy Hour to flex some muscles for the JR Motorsports brigade.

Among the Big 3 that includes Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, and Cole Custer, I did not see any team with overwhelming speed nor consistency. Cole Custer struggled on the stopwatch while Reddick was decent. From a stylistic point of view, Tyler Reddick should run well at Darlington as it fits his driving style better than the others. However, Christopher Bell emerged as one of the top drivers in Happy Hour. I personally faded Bell at openers this week though it was against the overall favorite with Denny Hamlin. My reasoning was mainly due to Hamlin’s success at Darlington but also we should remember that Bell has limited Darlington experience under his belt. Bell also struggled in this race one year ago. He got into the outside wall by himself early in the race and had another similar incident late in the event. Therefore, I am not completely convinced the #20 is the best bet on Saturday.

Drivers to Target

Like it or not, my favorite driver that emerged on Friday included the #7 of Justin Allgaier. Now with that being said, I think it’s important to mention that Allgaier has had a forgettable season thus far in 2019. Furthermore, Allgaier has never been a dominant driver at Darlington either and has failed to crack the Top 5 in his 5 prior starts. Still I alluded to the speed that the JR Motorsports cars showed earlier today in practices and Allgaier was the best of the group. The #7 emerged as the fastest car in 10 and 15 lap averages. The car handled well and showed little signs of distress that would raise alarms in race conditions. As a result, I will be looking to target Allgaier in betting match-ups as long as the odds make sense and potentially for the outright win if the odds present value.

Another driver that I will be looking to target includes the #2 of Tyler Reddick. I mentioned earlier that this track aligns with Reddick’s driving style but he was also pretty fast in practices as well. Once the track rubbers up and gets slick Saturday afternoon, I believe Reddick will be even more dangerous as long as he can stay out of trouble which is always a risk. Another driver that is on my radar for betting/fantasy purposes includes Gray Gaulding. I am not sure if Gaulding will be listed in match-ups but I would love to see it. This #08 team continues to improve and has rattled off top 15 finishes in 4 of the last 5 races including a season best 6th place result at Bristol. In practices earlier today, I noticed Gaulding was once again trending above their norm. As a result, I believe the #08 team provides both betting and fantasy value ahead of Saturday’s race.

Drivers to Fade

One of the bigger surprises from the potential contenders list included the lack of speed from the #00 of Cole Custer on Friday. When I say lack of speed, Custer and team were really close to race winning speed. In fact, Custer’s lap times were borderline top 10 in terms of speed. I am sure the team will be better on Saturday but I don’t think it is going to be enough to get into the upper echelon of talent. I envision tomorrow’s race being a struggle for the #00 and I will be looking to fade Custer against the premier threats for Saturday’s event. If you want an additional name to target for fades, look no further than the #23 of John Hunter Nemechek. Aside from the short tracks, this #23 team has been pretty awful throughout the 2nd half of the season. Combine that note with the fact this will be John Hunter’s first career start at Darlington and you have a recipe for disaster. Therefore, feel free to fade the #23 with complete confidence.

2019 Sport Clips Haircuts VFW 200 Optimal Lineup

2019 Sport Clips Haircuts VFW 200 Race Picks

*Final

Tyler Reddick +700 (1 unit)
Justin Allgaier +1350 (1 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Denny Hamlin +185 wins Sport Clips Haircuts VFW 200
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

Justin Allgaier +135 over Cole Custer
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Denny Hamlin -160 over Christopher Bell (2 units) *early play
Tyler Reddick -105 over Cole Custer (2 units)
Justin Allgaier +135 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)