2019 ROXOR 200 Race Picks
NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Saturday July 20th, 4:16PM (EST) at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
NASCAR makes its lone stop in Loudon this weekend for racing at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Earlier today on-track action began with the opening Cup Series practice, followed by two Xfinity Series practices, and then Brad Keselowski won the Busch Pole for Sunday’s Foxwoods Resort Casino 301. Before we turn our attention towards Sunday’s main event, we must first put our focus towards the Xfinity Series and the running of the ROXOR 200 on Saturday. I believe tomorrow’s Xfinity Series race will provide some advantageous betting opportunities and I’m ready to provide my 2019 ROXOR 200 race picks for New Hampshire!
Christopher Bell enters the weekend as the defending winner of the ROXOR 200 though the race was previously named the Lakes Region 200. In last year’s event, Bell led 93 of 200 laps to beat out Brad Keselowski for the victory. Before the week began, I believe it was a safe assumption to put Christopher Bell and Cole Custer at the top of everyone’s rankings. Bell is largely believed to be the most talented driver in the Xfinity Series and his short track skills have been on full display this year with wins at Iowa, Dover, and Bristol. However in recent weeks and perhaps for the entire season, Cole Custer is quickly becoming the new darling of the Xfinity Series. Custer surprisingly pulled away from Bell in the latter stages of last week’s race at Kentucky despite the #20 appearing to have the better car. The end result netted Custer his 5th victory of the year which is the most in the Xfinity Series. Custer has now won 2 of the last 3 races and has possibly become “the guy” to beat on a weekly basis.
Judging by practices earlier today, Bell and Custer appear to be poised for another battle towards victory. Bell finished 2nd on the speed charts behind Justin Haley while Custer was 3rd overall. When I mapped out lap times, I noticed Bell clearly appeared to have the best car in terms of fire off speed. However after a few laps, Custer was extremely close to Bell’s lap times. Collectively the two drivers, were significantly ahead of the competition. Even Tyler Reddick, the other member of the Big 3, did not post lap times that were in the vicinity of the #00 and #20 cars. Therefore, Custer and Bell appear to be poised for another inevitable battle that could likely determine the winner of this race.
Obviously in the realm of motorsports, nothing is guaranteed. However, I am starting to give up hope for surprise winners especially on the traditional ovals. Outside of Daytona, Kyle Busch is the only driver outside the Big 3 to wheel an Xfinity Series car to victory this season. Unfortunately for bettors, there is just a big gap in terms of talent between the Big 3 and the rest of the competition. With that being said, that does not exclude the significance of securing betting opportunities on Saturday. In an ideal situation, I would love to have 1 or 2 parlay options for Sunday because I believe guys like Kyle Busch and Martin Truex are going to be extremely tough to beat. Since Custer and Bell have been so dominant and look poised for another victory, I will likely hope for parlay options for my win bets and then try to exploit some H2H match-ups that I believe will provide some value.
ROXOR 200 H2H and Fantasy Targets
A couple of drivers that was truly impressive during practices included both Justin Allgaier and Harrison Burton. For Allgaier, my expectations are somewhat limited. While the #7 looked really good in practice, Allgaier’s body of work in Loudon paints a different picture. In 8 career starts, Allgaier has never cracked the top 5 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway despite rides with Penske, Turner Scott Motorsports, and J.R. Motorsports. Therefore I would not consider the #7 a dark horse for Saturday in terms of a victory and would not even consider Allgaier the good driver to target in H2H match-ups. However, Allgaier and the #7 team have struggled in qualifying in recent weeks starting outside the top 10 in 3 of the last 5 races. If that happens again, Allgaier could become a solid fantasy option despite his poor history.
A few of my favorite H2H targets include part-time drivers Harrison Burton and Ryan Truex. I actually put small plays on both Burton and Truex on openers because the odds produced astronomical value. Following today’s practices, I still like Burton and Truex to run well. I remember advising everyone to target Burton back at Iowa despite his growing perception of failing to perform in the Truck Series. Burton went on to finish 4th at Iowa and I believe he has some similar upside this week at another track that suits his driving style. Meanwhile, Ryan Truex is a guy that people just love to forget for whatever reason. Yet, Truex continues to produce quality finishes with his opportunities. In two prior starts with J.R Motorsports this year at Phoenix and last week at Kentucky, Truex has finished 2nd and 8th. I also watched the #8 relatively closely today in practices and thought the lap times were competitive. Therefore, I believe another quality run is within reach.
Drivers to Fade
Normally I have 1-2 drivers that I am overly anxious to fade each race. However, that is not the case for tomorrow’s ROXOR 200. I did not see anyone that appeared to be completely off in terms of lap times or reportedly struggled significantly with handling. I think everyone from about 4th to 10th will be pretty close in comparison of speed. If you go back to my comments about Justin Allgaier above, he could be a driver worthy of fade consideration simply based on his struggles at New Hampshire. The only thing that scares me with that angle is that the #7 team did look pretty good in practice. Instead if I had to pick one driver to fade, I would likely consider fading Paul Menard. I am not exactly sure why Menard is racing in the #12 this week but he has never been good at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Fortunately popular names are often overvalued in terms of betting odds especially in the Xfinity Series so I will be looking to see if there are any fade opportunities against the #12 once odds repost.
*Final Practice Average Speed
| Avg. Speed | Laps |
|---|
| Christopher Bell | 127.49 | 18 |
| Cole Custer | 127.04 | 16 |
| Justin Haley | 126.76 | 12 |
| Harrison Burton | 126.52 | 20 |
| Justin Allgaier | 126.50 | 21 |
| Paul Menard | 126.11 | 17 |
| Ryan Truex | 126.05 | 22 |
| Tyler Reddick | 125.97 | 20 |
| Austin Cindric | 125.97 | 14 |
| Brandon Jones | 125.63 | 21 |
| Chase Briscoe | 125.41 | 28 |
| Noah Gragson | 125.31 | 24 |
2019 Draftkings ROXOR 200 Optimal Lineup at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
*TBD after qualifying Saturday morning (11:05AM EST)*
2019 ROXOR 200 Race Picks
*Final
Justin Allgaier +1100 (1 unit)
Harrison Burton +4400 (.25 unit)
Ryan Truex +6600 (.25 unit)
Two Team Parlays
Harrison Burton -110 over Paul Menard
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1.5 units to win:
TBD
Christopher Bell +100 wins ROXOR 200
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1.25 units to win:
TBD
Cole Custer wins ROXOR 200
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win:
TBD
H2H Match-Ups
Justin Haley -140 over John Hunter (2 units)
Ryan Truex -115 over Brandon Jones (2 units)
