2019 Rhino Pro Truck Outfitters 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Saturday September 14th, 7:46PM (EST) at Las Vegas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

For the 2nd night in a row, NASCAR will put the spotlight on Las Vegas Motor Speedway when the Xfinity Series waves the green flag for the Rhino Pro Truck Outfitters 300. As the Cup Series prepares for the opening race in the Chase Sunday night, the Xfinity Series has one final event before the regular season concludes. Tomorrow night’s Rhino Pro Truck Outfitters 300 will officially provide the last opportunity for drivers to make the Chase among those drivers currently outside the cutoff line. As the circumstances around the playoffs heat up, we take this time to breakdown our betting expectations for Saturday and provide our 2019 Rhino Pro Truck Outfitters 300 race picks for Vegas!

Tomorrow night’s 300 mile season finale will be the Xfinity Series’ 2nd stop at Las Vegas this season. Back in March, Kyle Busch won the Boyd Gaming 300 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in relatively dominating fashion. The interesting tidbit about the race in March is that none of the Big 3 drivers in Cole Custer, Christopher Bell, nor Tyler Reddick finished inside the top 5. As everyone is aware, the Big 3 has dominated the 2019 season in extraordinary fashion winning 14 of the last 19 races. The spring race at Las Vegas marked the only time this season that a member of the Big 3 did not finish inside the Top 5 at non-plate style tracks which leads us to one question. Do we have a legitimate opportunity for a dark horse winner on Saturday?

Well before we jump to potential dark horses, I think it is safe to say that the Big 3 will still be heavily favored on Saturday for justifiable reasons. Tyler Reddick has emerged as the likely overall favorite after posting the fastest times in both practices on Friday. Not only was Reddick fastest on single lap speed but he held the best 5/15 lap averages as well. Christopher Bell was able to sneak in between those averages with the best 10 consecutive lap average speed. I personally thought Bell was really sharp in long run speed and actually appeared to have the better handling car. With that being said, I would still rank the trio as follows: Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, and Cole Custer ahead of Saturday night’s green flag.

Potential dark horses for the Xfinity Series at Vegas

One of the reasons I am excited for Saturday night’s race is because I think we have a shot to see a surprise winner. If you follow my weekly predictions, then you know that I don’t normally suggest the likelihood of a surprise winner often. However, Las Vegas is the type of track where anything can happen and track position will be extremely important. So any late race strategy, caution, or attrition that can shake things up towards the end could provide the perfect recipe for a surprise winner.

At opening odds, I took a chance on the likes of Chase Briscoe (22-1) and Noah Gragson (44-1) at big odds. Briscoe has consistently been the best ‘driver’ outside of the Big 3 at the traditional ovals and I feel like Gragson is starting to develop into a weekly live long shot opportunity. Briscoe looked really solid in practices early today but Gragson struggled quite a bit. Furthermore, the likes of Justin Allgaier and John Hunter Nemechek are the threats that emerged from stopwatch observations. Allgaier was actually on par with the likes of Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell in terms of raw lap times. The only nugget to that statement is the fact that Allgaier has consistently looked like one of the best cars in practices while failing to back it up throughout the races.

Meanwhile, John Hunter Nemechek may be the sharpest dark horse play out of the group. John Hunter had his best Xfinity Series finish (2nd) of his young career at Las Vegas back in March. Additionally, John Hunter was just as fast in practices again today with lap times that would be among the top 5 contenders in nearly every statistical category. John Hunter is one of those drivers that often flies under the radar and if that happens again then we may just have to take a small play on the #23 team for value purposes.

Drivers to fade

I don’t have many drivers that I am fading at all costs on Saturday. However, I think there are a couple of candidates that are worthy of fade consideration. At the top of my list is the #18 of Riley Herbst. Herbst is making his 8th start of the year in the #18 and has just 2 top 10 finishes with a career best finish of 9th in his first start at Richmond. I believe Herbst is a very talented young driver but he simply needs more time. Herbst’s strengths run parallel with the shorter surfaces where he has raced throughout the majority of his career. Herbst’s skills on the larger 1.5 surfaces still need some time to develop. The good news for bettors is that the #18 is often highly valued because of the equipment alone but this may be a perfect opportunity to pivot back on that narrative.

Draftkings 2019 Rhino Pro Truck Outfitters 300 Fantasy Predictions

2019 Rhino Pro Truck Outfitters 300 Race Picks

*Final

Tyler Reddick +400 (1.5 units)
Justin Allgaier +1540 (1 unit)
Chase Briscoe +2200 (.5 unit) *early play
Noah Gragson +4400 (.5 unit) *early play
John Hunter Nemechek +7000 (.25 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Cole Custer +310 wins Pro Truck Outfitters 300
Team 2 – Open
Risking .5 unit to win: TBD

John Hunter Nemechek +155 over Brandon Jones
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

John Hunter Nemechek -145 over Riley Herbst (3 units)
Chase Briscoe -120 over Brandon Jones (2 units)
Tyler Reddick -115 over Cole Custer (2 units)