2019 Quaker State 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Predictions
Saturday July 13th, 7:48PM (EST) at Kentucky Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

For the 2nd week in a row, the NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series will attempt to go Saturday night racing. Last week, the attempt was unsuccessful as rain plagued on-track activities at Daytona postponing the Coke Zero Sugar 400 until Sunday only to be shortened by rain once again ultimately handing Justin Haley an unforeseen victory. Fortunately, Mother Nature should not be a factor this weekend as we are set to put our focus towards 400 miles of racing under the lights at Kentucky Speedway for the Quaker State 400. Over the last 2 races, we have witnessed huge underdog winners with the likes of Alex Bowman and Justin Haley earning their 1st career victories. Will the trend continue? I think there are some live dark horses that will make a run at the checkered flag. Find out our thoughts and more with our 2019 Quaker State 400 race picks for Kentucky!

Unfortunately, I missed the first two races this weekend at Kentucky Speedway and I apologize to everyone for the interruption in race picks. I try my best to revolve everything around the race schedules for all series but I had a vacation scheduled that was a conflict of interest. I believe that is only the 2nd weekend that I have missed in the last 2 years so I can assure everyone that is not something that will be common. With that being said, I will have to approach this race straight up without any parlays in my back pocket. Therefore, I plan to approach this race with a rather cautious strategy because there are a handful of drivers that usually perform really well at Kentucky and they are obviously among the overall favorites which limits our betting value. Brad Keselowski leads all drivers with 3 victories, Kyle Busch has 2 wins, and Martin Truex Jr. has won the last two Quaker State 400 races. Matt Kenseth is the only other driver that has a Kentucky victory since the track began hosting races at the Cup Series level in 2011.

This Kentucky Speedway is a really fast 1.5 mile track that was repaved and reconfigured as recently as 2016. The surface has a lot of grip and provokes minimal tire wear which will open the door for strategy calls on pit road. As a result, a good handling car works wonders at Kentucky because drivers need to stay in the gas to maintain momentum which is why Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski dominated so many of the early races at Kentucky. Since the repave, this venue has been Martin Truex Jr’s stomping ground as he has led 326 of the 541 laps over the last two races. I find that rather surprising considering Truex normally dominates on the tracks with higher tire wear where long run speed is the premium. However that is the complete opposite dilemma for racing at Kentucky but somehow the tandem of Cole Pearn and Martin Truex have been nothing short of spectacular over the last 2 races.

As hot as Truex has been in recent weeks combined with his history at Kentucky, this seems to be a prime spot for the #19 team to go after another win. However it is worth noting that the #19 team was nowhere near the top of the leaderboard in either of Friday’s practices and were definitely not showing indicators that they had another dominant car worthy of another victory. For what it’s worth, Truex was 14th in final practice last year before going on to dominate the event. So practice strength is not mandatory for anyone to run well but I do believe the gap has narrowed with this new package among the entire field. As a result, I expect to see momentum drivers shine Saturday night. Guys like Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, and Brad Keselowski have elevated value despite lower betting odds as drivers that typically thrive in these types of racing conditions. Even with that being true, there are plenty of additional threats that promise to make Saturday night’s race exciting!

Quaker State 400 Dark Horses

In terms of dark horses, I am sure the secret may be out of the bag with the #41 car of Daniel Suarez. Suarez posted the best 5, 10, and 15 lap averages in final practice on Friday and just when you thought a potential dark horse candidate was emerging; Suarez went out and put the #41 car on the pole. Obviously Suarez is still labeled a dark horse considering the fact he has never won a race at the Cup Series level and has just 6 top 5 finishes in 90 career starts. Unfortunately I am afraid the pole earlier today ruined the odds that the #41 would have received with any other type of qualifying effort. Either way, the #41 is trending up in both match-ups and fantasy purposes for Saturday night’s event.

A couple of intermediate threats that could easily challenge for the win on Saturday include both Denny Hamlin and Clint Bowyer. Hamlin is probably the more obvious pick. He was really solid in both practices and won on a newly repaved surface at Texas earlier this year. While Kentucky and Texas are not necessarily similar in banking, the type of surface and race that will unfold in the Quaker State 400 will be similar. Hamlin really shined in that Texas race back in March when he outlasted Clint Bowyer to the checkered flag. Though Bowyer finished 2nd in that race, that is not necessarily why I like the #14 as a dark horse for the Quaker State 400.

Instead, my reasoning is because the #14 car come to life at the end of Happy Hour. On paper, Bowyer was nothing special but they laid down some of the fastest laps in the field on their short final run in Happy Hour. The team literally made gains with every trip on the track and I think that could pose some underdog potential for Saturday night, especially in the form of H2H match-ups. Another name I would also throw out in terms of H2H match-ups includes the young talent of William Byron. Byron is one of those guys that still has a lot of room for development at certain tracks but typically performs well when the #24 car shows speed. So far this weekend, the #24 has looked really solid and I think this is a perfect race where he could get a quality finish by keeping the nose clean.

Drivers to Fade

Before I talk about a few drivers that I think are worth fading for Saturday, let me first state a few facts. This type of racing at Kentucky Speedway is not the most ideal racing for handicapping or betting for that matter. This race will be influenced greatly by clean air and track position meaning the running order could be flipped on strategy alone. I am not trying to encourage anyone to bypass this betting event but I do think overall risk should be kept relatively low. With that being said, let’s breakdown a few bold predictions.

My first fade driver that I will be fading Saturday night given the right match-up includes Martin Truex Jr who has won the last two races at Kentucky. This may be a rather bold and perhaps risky fade. However, I don’t feel like the #19 will have the advantage we have seen in recent races and I don’t see Truex gaining ground on the long run because there simply is not enough fall-off. If Truex goes out and dominates this race for a 3rd straight year, this may look like an idiotic prediction. However, I just think this package change will erase the advantages Cole Pearn and team found the last couple of races.

Another candidate that is prime for fade consideration is the #3 car of Austin Dillon. Despite showing some strong qualifying efforts this year, Dillon’s results have not been promising. Dillon has yet to record a top 5 finish this season and has finished outside the top 20 in 5 of the last 6 races. Dillon and the #3 team did not show much promise on the stopwatch on Friday and honestly they have not been strong all year on the 1.5 mile tracks aside from qualifying efforts. After another decent qualifying effort on Friday that will see Dillon start from the 9th position, I believe this is another excellent opportunity to fade the #3 car who will likely start falling once the green flag is waved.

*Best 15 lap consecutive averages

	Avg. Speed
Daniel Suarez	180.08
Kyle Busch	179.87
Kevin Harvick	179.68
Denny Hamlin	179.62
Kurt Busch	179.61
Joey Logano	179.43
Brad Keselowski	179.22
William Byron	178.99
Aric Amirola	178.82
Clint Bowyer	178.68

2019 Draftkings Quaker State 400 Optimal Lineup at Kentucky

2019 Quaker State 400 Race Picks

*Final

Joey Logano +1100 (1 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1500 (.75 unit)
Denny Hamlin +1800 (.75 unit)
Clint Bowyer +2500 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Brad Keselowski/Kevin Harvick +290 wins Quaker State 400
William Byron +115 over Aric Almirola
Risking 1.25 units to win: +920

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Denny Hamlin -110 over Chase Elliott (2 units)
Daniel Suarez -135 over Jimmie Johnson (2 units)
Daniel Suarez +600 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)
Clint Bowyer +770 finishes Top 3 (.5 unit)