2019 Pocono Green 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Race Picks
Saturday June 1st, 1:18PM (EST) at Pocono Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

On Saturday, the Xfinity Series will kick off the racing weekend at Pocono Raceway with the running of the Pocono Green 250. Austin Dillon will join the Xfinity Series regulars for the 2nd week in a row behind the seat of the #10 car for Kaulig Racing. Dillon will attempt to get some precious laps under his belt before Sunday’s Pocono 400 and perhaps challenge the Xfinity Series’ Big 3 consisting of Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, and Cole Custer. Those 3 drivers finished 1, 2, and 3 in final practice and appear to be the cars to beat yet again. However tomorrow’s race at Pocono should provide some strategy options on pit road for track position which could keep things interesting. We discuss our expectations and drivers to target with our 2019 Pocono Green 250 race picks!

At this point, Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, and Cole Custer have clearly separated from the rest of the Xfinity Series competition. Those 3 drivers have combined for 7 victories this season and have won every race since Daytona that was won by an Xfinity Series regular. It boils down to a combination of the fastest cars combined with the most talented drivers that keeps those 3 guys at the front of the field each week. Judging by Friday’s two practice sessions, we should expect nothing different on Saturday in the Pocono Green 250. Between the 3 drivers, I felt like Cole Custer was the best of the group especially on the longer runs. Tyler Reddick had serious takeoff speed but Custer was better throughout an entire run. I also like Custer’s driving style a lot more than Reddick for a place like Pocono. Reddick wants to stay in the gas and manhandle the car through corners where Custer will be smooth and time the corners well which is critical to carrying speed down these long straightaways deep into the run. For Christopher Bell, the #20 team did not run many consecutive laps but judging by their performance in this race last year; he should be fine if they can get the handling together on the #20 car.

In our early plays email this week, I explained that we would likely see some traffic at the front of the field tomorrow that will mix things up. While the “Big 3” clearly have the speed to fight off any contenders, I believe strategy will come into play. The final stage is just inside the fuel window meaning it will give teams the option to come pit before the conclusion of stage 2. Since cars do not lose a lap while pitting at Pocono, this will be a strategy move to setup a run for the checkered flag during the final stage. Then it really comes down to who plays the track position game correctly, who plays the fuel mileage game correctly, and if any cautions will fall. Either way, we should expect strategy calls on pit road to mix things up towards the end of this race which could potentially bring a surprise winner into contention.

I originally believed Austin Dillon may be the guy to challenge the Big 3 this weekend. Dillon was fast at Charlotte last week before he retired due to the heat and blisters he was getting in the car due to crush panel damage. Dillon has never participated in a race at Pocono in the Xfinity Series but he is arguably among the most talented drivers in tomorrow’s field. Dillon was fairly solid in practices but that #10 team still does not have the speed that those top teams possess. Therefore, I think Justin Allgaier may be among your top threats to challenge the Big 3. Allgaier has been solid at Pocono in recent years and though there will not be any shifting tomorrow due to gear ratio mandations; Allgaier remains a top threat.

In practices all of the JR Motorsports cars were solid on speed. Allgaier was battling tight handling conditions but still had the best speed of the JR Motorsports brigade. If they can make a few overnight adjustments, they could have a piece that can stay at the front of the field. Teammates Ryan Preece, Noah Gragson, and Michael Annett were all solid on the stopwatch as well. In fact, I thought Annett had really good speed or at least enough to warrant some betting attention. Annett should provide value in both H2H and fantasy situations especially if he does not qualifying too well. I really like the #1 to have a good run and will be looking to exploit those expectations if I can find Annett in any reasonable betting match-ups.

For the rest of the field, I expect Austin Cindric to be strong. Cindric had a great run in last year’s Pocono Green 250 and the #22 team has the speed to provide an encore performance. Jeffrey Earnhardt also had some solid speed in the #18 car. Earnhardt overcame a rough start last week at Charlotte to capture his best career finish (3rd) in the Xfinity Series. Obviously, Earnhardt is still a big long shot but I have to bring up his name based on how fast the #18 car has been throughout the season. Pocono is one of those tracks where handling is key but speed is the difference. Therefore, we have to give the #18 some respect going into Saturday’s race.

I don’t have enough confidence in any other guys to make a run at the win. Of course a perfect strategy call as mentioned earlier could put some “surprise” contenders into the mix. I simply think those surprise contenders will be guys already running towards the front of the field. If you are looking for some additional betting options, I have a few drivers marked as guys I will avoid going into Saturday. The short list of drivers to avoid include Chase Briscoe and Brandon Jones. Briscoe and the #98 team likely unloaded their worst car of the season this week. The team was completely off and could barely keep the car on the track in final practice amidst major changes which each trip to the garage. Likewise, Brandon Jones simply did not show much in terms of lap times. I took an early small play on Jones as a long shot and was disappointed with the speed from the #19 team. Jones did not appear to be on new tires in final practice but the times were still off. He probably still has some upward potential but I simply have to avoid him at this point of the weekend.

Draftkings Pocono Green 250 Betting Predictions

*Updated: Cole Custer won the pole for the Pocono Green 250 this morning by a razor thin margin over Christopher Bell. I like Custer as the better fantasy option for the Big 3. Custer is the cheaper option of the 3 and has a legitimate shot at the victory today. It’s worth noting that Custer complained that his car was really loose in qualifying. Cars typically tighten up over the course of a run at Pocono but any early troubles likely means that Christopher Bell gets out front early. Obviously, Bell is a solid anchor play as well. I am personally avoiding Tyler Reddick as he will be starting from the back and did not show the same long run speed as Bell/Custer.

The best value plays remain Michael Annett ($8,000) and Austin Cindric ($9,000). Despite their solid qualifying efforts, both guys have a ton of speed and should be able to stay at the front of the field this afternoon. John Hunter Nemechek provides some place-differential opportunity after a poor qualifying effort. However, I am just not that confident in the #23’s ceiling even from a poor starting position.

If you are looking for intermediate value options, all of the JR. Motorsports cars look strong. Justin Allgaier and Ryan Preece are solid intermediate options. Noah Gragson had the worst qualifying effort from the JR. Motorsports camp but may be one of the better fantasy options at just $8,400. For deeper options, I am taking a chance on Matt Mills who bombed his qualifying effort. Mills is a risky flier but he is better than his qualifying effort suggests.

	Avg. Speed	Timed Laps
Cole Custer	167.18	24
Christopher Bell	166.94	18
Tyler Reddick	166.91	28
Justin Allgaier	166.00	13
Austin Dillon	165.83	16
Michael Annett	165.77	24
Justin Haley	165.55	14
Jeffrey Earnhardt	165.46	13
Austin Cindric	165.35	25
Noah Gragson	165.32	21
Ryan Preece	165.15	14
Ryan Sieg	165.10	15
Chase Briscoe	164.83	9
Brandon Jones	164.76	20
John Hunter	164.58	11

2019 Pocono Green 250 Race Picks

*Final

Justin Allgaier +1300 (1 unit)
Austin Cindric +1800 (.75 unit) *early play
Austin Dillon +2000 (.5 unit) *early play
Brandon Jones +3000 (.5 unit) *early play
John Hunter Nemechek +4000 (.5 unit) *early play
Jeffrey Earnhardt +5500 +5500 (.25 unit)

Two Team Parlays

TBA

Cole Custer +180 wins Pocono Green 250
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

Christopher Bell +115 over Tyler Reddick
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1.25 units to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Cole Custer +120 over Tyler Reddick (3 units)
Austin Dillon -145 over Chase Briscoe (2 units)
Jeffrey Earnhardt -140 over John Hunter (2 units)