2019 Pocono 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Race Picks
Sunday June 2nd, 1:18PM (EST) at Pocono Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Monster Energy Cup Series is slated for 400 miles at Pocono Raceway on Sunday in the running of the Pocono 400. Earlier this morning, William Bryon scored his 2nd pole of the season with a lap of 173.494mph. William Byron, along with the rest of Hendrick Motorsports, has found some additional speed in recent weeks. Now the Hendrick Motorsports brigade has a chance to continue their improvement at a track where they have historically had a ton of success. Will we see a Hendrick Motorsports car in victory lane on Sunday? Our thoughts and more as we provide our 2019 Pocono 400 race picks!

From a Hendrick Motorsports standpoint, they appear to have brought some competitive cars again this week to Pocono. Chase Elliott has been the best of the group throughout the weekend with Jimmie Johnson perhaps the 2nd best of the group. However even to Alex Bowman and William Byron, the overall group has been competitive throughout the weekend. I have been closely watching Bowman because he has really come alive in recent weeks with 3 runner-up finishes in the last 4 races. From what I can tell for tomorrow’s race at Pocono, the Hendrick Motorsports cars fire off well but still are not quite where they need to be in race trim. As a group, the Hendrick teams are definitely moving in the right direction and perhaps they are still just a touch off from seeing all 4 guys competing at the front of the field on the same weekend. I would still keep an eye on Chase Elliott for Sunday. The driver of the #9 car has always performed well at Pocono and he is flying under the radar a bit this week. I am not too big on the #9 car’s chances to win but Elliott will likely run well which provides some added H2H/fantasy value.

I know I spent the first few sentences speaking about the Hendrick Motorsports camp and I often mention team performance each week because it is relative to handicapping. However, Pocono is one of those tracks where it takes an equal balance from driver talent to nailing the setup. The track seems to tighten up as the run prevails and teams need to have a setup in the car that provides balance while being able to turn throughout the run to carry speed down the long straightaways. Therefore, Pocono is a little different from the standpoint of pure aero performance which typically mirrors team performance. Instead, this week we should focus on the guys that are happy with the handling on their cars and those drivers that typically have a knack for getting around the Tricky Triangle.

The drivers that top my handicapping formula for Pocono this week include the #18 of Kyle Busch and the #2 of Brad Keselowski. After a few weeks where the #18 team was a bit off, Busch and the group rebounded with a really strong weekend at Charlotte in the Coca Cola 600. Busch ended up 3rd in the 600 but it was a step back in the right direction from where this team was earlier this year when they won 3 times in the first 8 races. Since unloading Friday, Busch has probably been the best car on the track and even posted the best 10 lap average in Happy Hour. If you consider the fact Busch has won 2 of the last 3 races at Pocono combined with the speed shown thus far from the #18 team, Rowdy should have an excellent shot to return to victory lane.

Brad Keselowski is another driver that I am extremely high on going into Sunday’s 400 miles. The #2 has been performing very well and has some momentum going. More importantly, Keselowski has been excellent at Pocono with top 5 finishes in 6 of the last 7 races. Over the last 5 races, Keselowski has posted a 102 average driver rating which trails only behind Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick. Keselowski put the #2 car in victory lane in 2011 in his only Pocono win and I expect he will have an excellent opportunity to do it again tomorrow.

I am really high on Busch and Keselowski for Sunday. I find most of my focus going to those two drivers. However, Pocono is a track that provides a lot of strategy options between fuel and tires. Therefore, we have to look for potential spoilers throughout the rest of the field. Among the group of drivers that could play the spoiler role on Sunday include the likes of Denny Hamlin, Erik Jones, and Chase Elliott. I was close to mentioning Kyle Larson in that group and perhaps I should. Larson and the #42 team were way off in the opening practice on Friday but made significant changes that got them back into the ballgame. Larson is usually strong at the larger surfaces where momentum is key and he posted a runner-up finish in this race last year. I know Larson is typically a letdown type driver but I expect the #42 to be solid on Sunday.

For the rest of the group mentioned above, Erik Jones has a great record at Pocono with finishes of 3rd, 8th, 29th, and 5th in his first 4 starts. Jones made a big impact early in his career on flat surfaces and I still think of him as a driver the prevails on the flatter surfaces. Jones actually posted the best average speed of all drivers in final practice so he definitely deserves some dark horse consideration. For Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott, I simply think the driving talent combined with solid speed will vault those drivers towards the front of the field. Hamlin had a pretty solid qualifying effort and has to feel like an opportunity got away from them last week at the 600 after having one of the fastest cars in the field. Expect both the #11 and #9 to remain in the thick of things on Sunday.

I know you are probably thinking at this point, well what about Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex, and Joey Logano? What about those sharks? Well, I am not necessarily saying those guys will not be solid on Sunday. However from a handicapping standpoint, I think they are definitely overvalued from an odds standpoint. Harvick keeps finding ways not to win races and has never scored a victory at Pocono. Pocono is statistically one of Logano’s worst tracks and the #22 did not show a lot of speed in practices. Perhaps Truex is the only driver that had speed and has enough positive marks on his resume to deserve some attention. Truex has been red hot as of late with victories in 3 of the last 5 races. I have no doubt Truex will likely be tough again on Sunday after posting solid lap times in practices. However, I simply think there are better options from a driver and betting standpoint which will likely keep the #19 off of my lineup.

Pocono 400 drivers to fade

I believe I have established a baseline for the drivers that I expect to run well on Sunday. Now let’s shift focus and talk about some of the drivers that I expect will not live up to their expectations on Sunday. Among the shortlist of drivers to avoid on Sunday or to potentially fade in H2H match-ups; steer clear of the #22 of Joey Logano, the #17 of Ricky Stenhouse, and the #10 of Aric Almirola. I mentioned earlier that Pocono is statistically one of Logano’s worst tracks. In fact, Logano has posted just one top 10 finish in the last 5 Pocono races. More importantly, the #22 did not look good in practices on Friday as the team struggled significantly with the balance on the car. I don’t think the team really gained on anything today following their 16th place qualifying effort. Therefore, the #22 is a great car to fade as he will be paired against some top tier drivers in betting match-ups.

Both Ricky Stenhouse Jr and Aric Almirola both have pretty horrible track resumes at Pocono as well. Almirola has an awful 25.69 average finishing position in 13 career starts that includes just one Top 10 finish. Almirola has just 1 finish inside the Top 20 in his last 11 starts and those are stats that are simply too ugly to ignore. However, Ricky Stenhouse may be the better driver to fade in match-ups. Stenhouse has been manufacturing some quality finishes in recent weeks and has obviously benefited from the new rules package. Because his stock is on the rise especially following last week’s 5th place finish in the Coca Cola 600, this could be an excellent spot to pivot back from the #17. Stenhouse has never performed well on these large layouts and is not necessarily a great driver on flatter surfaces. As a result, the driver of the #17 has just one top 10 finish in his 12 career starts at Pocono. In my final practice averages (shown below), Stenhouse was one of the worst drivers throughout final practice among the most notable competitors. Therefore, I will be looking for opportunities to fade Stenhouse on Sunday.

Draftkings Pocono Green 400 Betting Predictions

I am excited about tomorrow’s Pocono 400 from a Draftkings perspective. This should be one of the harder Draftkings races to predict because of impound qualifying earlier today. If you happen to not understand what impound qualifying means, it means that teams are not allowed to touch the cars after qualifying creating a situation where drivers/teams basically qualify with their race setup. Unlike most weekends where we see drivers qualify all over the place and it does not really correlate to race setups, this weekend should be more correlative. As a result, it will be more difficult to find drivers that simply qualified poorly to bring added value to fantasy lineups.

In my personal opinion, this impound qualifying favors towards handicappers because it is a harder setup. You don’t have the drivers that failed qualifying inspection or simply blew it in qualifying trim that are starting at the back. Instead, everyone is in the realm of where they should be from a race standpoint. Therefore, we simply need to target the guys that will likely move forward, score the most fantasy points in the lead laps/fastest laps categories, and hopefully avoid trouble. For this reason, I am anchoring my lineup with Kyle Busch who will be starting from the outside pole. I personally believe the #18 has the best car this weekend. Even if that is not true, the #18 has a great opportunity to jump out front early and lead several laps. I would be really surprised if William Byron holds the #18 off for more than a couple of laps.

Aside from Busch, I had a tough pick between Brad Keselowski and Chase Elliott as my 2nd anchor. I really think Keselowski has a car that could win the race. However if I am wrong, Elliott could produce the same amount of points from a deeper starting spot. Since Elliott is the slightly cheaper option, I am going to lock in the #9 and hope Elliott overachieves. My value play for the Pocono 400 is Erik Jones at $8,400. Despite the fact Jones is starting from the 4th position, Jones is an excellent driver for Pocono and his lap times were impressive in Happy Hour. If he does not lead a lap or register a fastest lap and simply finishes around where he starts, then that alone will be enough to hit value based on his current price tag. Therefore, I am locking Jones in for my value play of the race. I think I have taken Jones twice this year in Draftkings and he has blown a tire each time. So pray for some good luck this time around.

To close out my lineup, I need to produce a flier and a low priced option to salvage my salary cap. I have chosen Matt Tift and Michael McDowell to provide that relief. McDowell typically runs pretty well at Pocono and I am hoping he can move forward once this race starts. Meanwhile, Tift always seems to get the best of his equipment and has averaged more than 30 points in his last 3 starts. For a driver priced at just $5,300, that is what you need to complete a well rounded lineup. One reason I reached way down for Tift is because that leaves $8,500 left in my salary for one final driver and that is exactly the price tag showing for Alex Bowman. I think Bowman is the best option for drivers in the sub 8,500 range so I wanted to finalize my lineup with the #88 car while maxing out my complete salary cap. Bowman has been one of the hottest drivers in the sport in recent weeks and I am hoping that he can continue that streak for at least one more week.

	Avg. Speed	Timed Laps
Erik Jones	169.68	19
Denny Hamlin	169.65	17
Martin Truex	169.64	18
Kyle Busch	169.62	28
Brad Keselowski	169.56	22
Chase Elliott	169.53	26
Kyle Larson	169.41	19
Kevin Harvick	169.31	31
Jimmie Johnson	169.20	13
Ryan Blaney	169.13	28
Aric Almirola	169.10	18
William Byron	169.04	26
Kurt Busch	169.02	13
Clint Bowyer	168.95	21
Alex Bowman	168.88	23
Joey Logano	168.75	39
Austin Dillon	168.63	12
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	168.45	14
Daniel Suarez	168.05	30

2019 Pocono Green 400 Race Picks

*Final

Brad Keselowski +800 (1.5 units)
Denny Hamlin +1350 (1 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1850 (.75 unit) *early play
Kyle Larson +2150 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +2400 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Cole Custer +180 wins Pocono Green 250 (win)
Kyle Busch +300 wins Pocono 400
Risking 1 unit to win: +1020

H2H Match-Ups

Eric Jones -140 over Aric Almirola (3 units)
Alex Bowman -115 over Jimmie Johnson (2 units) *early play
Denny Hamlin +130 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Brad Keselowski -150 over Joey Logano (1 unit)
Denny Hamlin +320 wins Group B (1 unit)(Elliott, Logano, Blaney)