2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday March 31st, 1:16PM (EST) at Texas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Monster Energy Cup Series will fire the engines at Texas Motor Speedway on Sunday for the running of the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500. There are numerous story lines heading into Sunday’s main event. Jimmie Johnson earned his first pole in over 2 years on Friday by posting a blazing lap of 188.89mph. Johnson and the Chevrolet teams have shown some serious speed this weekend perhaps for the first time all season. Can the 7-time champion end his 65 race winless streak or will we see familiar names visit victory lane? Kyle Busch has pulled out victories in both the Truck and Xfinity Series’ races this weekend and is seeking an unthinkable weekend sweep. Find out our thoughts and drivers to watch as we present our 2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 race picks for Texas!

Admittedly, it has been a rough weekend for my race picks. After handicapping things beautifully in both Truck and Xfinity Series races, I was bitten with bad luck in the closing laps of each race. However if I keep handicapping these races correctly, the wins will come and that is why NASCAR betting is a season long grind. Still, Texas Motor Speedway provides the opportunity for “bad luck” because there are so many variables that must be considered. This speedway was repaved prior to the spring race in 2017. It is the fastest 1.5 mile track in NASCAR and the surface provokes minimal tire wear which leaves the door open for pit road strategy in the closing laps. I mapped out laps for all of the top drivers in Saturday’s final practice and lap times only fell off by a couple of tenths from the beginning to end of green flag runs. Therefore if the opportunity is presented late in this race, expect teams to gamble with potential fuel only or two tire strategies in attempt to steal a victory because track position is extremely important.

Of course we cannot pretend to predict who may gamble at the end of this race or if the conditions will allow for such an opportunity. Therefore, we simply have to put our money on the horses we expect to be at the front and perhaps consider taking an extra driver if the odds provide value. Still, this race is rather unpredictable by nature and there are several teams that are very close on speed. I did not see anyone emerge as the “guy to beat” in practices or any team for that matter. Instead, we witnessed the Chevrolet teams come to life for the first time this season. The Hendrick cars had some decent speed and the Chip Ganassi cars looked surprisingly strong. While I am still skeptical if the Chevrolet teams “practice” speed will transition into race speed (primarily Hendrick Motorsports), it could really mix things up if it does indeed happen.

Admittedly, I thought this would be a Team Penske race before the weekend began. Perhaps it will still turn out that way but those cars have not exactly impressed anyone in the garage thus far this weekend. Ryan Blaney was probably the best of the 3 Penske cars in practice which should not be too surprising considering Blaney’s strong runs recently at Texas. However, Logano nor Keselowski passed the eye test in practice. I remain confident that all of those cars will race well especially Logano considering his impressive resume at Texas which includes top 5 finishes in 7 of his last 10 starts. I simply have to point out the fact that they did not overly impress in practice. However, Team Penske’s trend this season is being fast when it counts on race day.

Speaking of impressive Texas resumes, Kevin Harvick’s averages over the last 4 races since the repave are simply incredible. ‘Happy’ has posted a lucrative 133.5 driving rating over the last 4 races with 379 laps led during that stretch. Harvick had a rather poor qualifying effort on Friday and perhaps is not currently in peak form with the #4 team. In fact, we could argue all of the Stewart-Haas Racing cars have struggled to some degree at the 1.5-2.0 mile ovals. Besides Harvick, Clint Bowyer is the only SHR driver to record a top 5 finish at the traditional ovals with his 5th place finish back at Atlanta. So obviously SHR cars are not performing like they were a year ago at this time. With that being said, Harvick has still posted several quality finishes and remains the best of the SHR cars. So I don’t think anyone can confidently count the #4 out on Sunday.

In terms of “form”, I believe everyone knows that Kyle Busch will be a threat. We really have no reason to expect anything different. Rowdy has posted top 3 finishes in 6 out of 7 races this season which is statistically among the best starts in NASCAR history. Aside from Rowdy’s impressive start, I would actually state that JGR’s performance has been overshadowed somewhat from Team Penske. Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex Jr, and Erik Jones have all been really fast this season.

Jones has not got the finishes that some of his teammates have received but he has been fast. Jones has an excellent performance resume at Texas and if the #20 team can avoid trouble for once; they should be fast on Sunday. Denny Hamlin is the guy that I think could surprise people on Sunday. Hamlin has posted quality performances and finishes throughout the season. The reigning Daytona 500 winner is getting sneaky close to getting another win and I thought he was among the best cars in Happy Hour earlier today. Another reason I like the #11 car is because that team has been able to produce quality long run speed as well all year. While long run “speed” is not important per say at Texas, the balance in the setup over the long run will be very important and I feel like the #11 team has been at the top of their game in recent weeks with the balance of their cars.

Speaking of somewhat surprise contenders or dark horses, I am going to surprise a lot of people by listing Kyle Larson as my dark horse going into Sunday. Larson’s performance has been forgettable through the first 6 races of the season but the Chip Ganassi cars looked really good in practice. More importantly, I think the conditions on Sunday will favor Larson’s driving style. We have seen all weekend that “loose” cars have been the fastest cars on the track. This type of race with little tire wear will result in drivers having to keep the car on edge to get the most speed out of their machines. I think that favors the #42 driver even if the “practice” speeds turns out to be misleading. Since Larson qualified in the 22nd position, I feel like he will likely be overlooked based on “form” and not potential. Likewise, I would not completely count out teammate Kurt Busch who will be coming from even further back from the 30th starting spot. The elder Busch was also very solid in Happy Hour on Saturday and we have seen that team rally on Sundays all year. So if you are wanting a few dark horses for Sunday, look no further than the Chip Ganassi brigade.

*Table reflects average speeds for the entire session during final practice. Cool down/caution laps have been excluded to provided the most accurate averages

Draftkings Fantasy Racing O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Betting Predictions

For those reasons along with starting positions, I believe Kyle Larson and Kurt Busch are both excellent fantasy options for Sunday. There are enough options among the drivers that qualified rather poorly to keep both Chip Ganassi drivers’ ownership rather low. I personally like Larson as the better option of the two but Kurt will be coming from slightly deeper in the field. Kevin Harvick is my top option among the favorites due to his incredible track history and recurring top 5 finishes this season. For some reason, I just felt like the #18 team was a little off in practice. While I am sure Busch will run well, I simply lean towards Harvick as the top fantasy option among the favorites.

In the intermediate range of drivers, Erik Jones is a driver I really like. Jones has a great resume at Texas which features 3 straight top 10 finishes with back to back 4th place finishes in 2018. Jones is a mild sleeper pick as a result of his poor finishes this year. However, this is an excellent bounce back spot for the #20 team that should return fantasy value. Another driver in similar price range that I believe will be worth targeting is Aric Almirola. Almirola is another driver that will have to overcome a poor starting position but has top 10 speed. I don’t believe his ceiling is quite as high as Jones but he should still be a productive fantasy driver on Sunday barring any misfortune.

For the fliers or really cheap drivers in fantasy this week, I am having a hard time finding value. The guys under $6,000 have not performed very well this season and usually when you have to reach for a flier it does not work out. At first glance, Ross Chastain appears like a guy that possibly provides value from the 35th starting spot. However, Chastain has failed to crack the top 25 in each of his past 5 starts and simply does not have the equipment to showcase his talent. Instead, I would advise to balance your rosters more evenly than to reach deep into the lower class drivers this week. If you have to take a chance on a flier, possibly Parker Kligerman at just $5,100 is the best option on the table.

2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Race Picks

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*Final

Ryan Blaney +1250 (1 unit) *early play
Kyle Larson +1600 (1 unit)
Denny Hamlin +2750 (1 unit)
Kurt Busch +3000 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +3500 (.5 unit) *early play

Parlays

Christopher Bell +165 over Brad Keselowski (win from Xfinity)
Kevin Harvick +790
Risking 1 unit to win: +2260

Kyle Busch -170 wins Vankor 350 (win from Trucks)
Brad Keselowski/Joey Logano +300
Denny Hamlin +130 over Aric Almirola
Risking 1 unit to win: +1360

Kyle Busch +210 does not finish Top 5
Kyle Larson -130 over Aric Almriola
Risking 1 unit to win: +450

H2H Match-Ups

David Ragan -115 over Michael McDowell (2 units) *early play
Denny Hamlin +100 over Chase Elliott (2 units)
Erik Jones -135 over Jimmie Johnson (2 units) *early play
Erik Jones +265 wins Group C (Elliott, Bowyer, Au. Dillon) (1 unit)