2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Saturday November 2nd, 8:48PM (EST) at Texas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Saturday night racing returns to the Xfinity Series tomorrow evening with the running of the O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 at Texas Motor Speedway. Following Brandon Jones’ surprise victory at Kansas two weeks ago, the Xfinity Series playoffs remain wide open at least to an extent. The Big 3 of Christopher Bell, Tyler Reddick, and Cole Custer collectively hold a commanding lead in the standings as overwhelming favorites to earn a trip to Homestead for a shot at the championship. However, those points positions are not guaranteed and another surprise victory by way of a playoff contender could really shake things up. As we prepare for another electrifying race under the lights at Texas, we take the time to breakdown our expectations and provide our 2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 race picks!

I hate to be a buzzkill to bettors this week but I am not a fan of Texas Motor Speedway in terms of handicapping. The track has provided some great racing in recent years which intrigues my interest as a fan of the sport. However, the current state of Texas Motor Speedway is not exactly handicapper friendly. With a recent repave back in 2017, Texas Motor Speedway remains the newest track in NASCAR in terms of surface aging. The track has a lot of grip and a ton of speed for a traditional 1.5 mile speedway. Because of the circumstances, this track favors the teams with the best raw speed that have aero/horsepower advantages across both series. In the Cup Series, we will likely see guys from Joe Gibbs Racing and Stewart-Haas Racing shine this weekend. Those teams have consistently produced the most speed this season and should benefit as long as they can avoid completely missing the balance on the setups.

In the Xfinity Series, the advantage will go to the Big 3 of Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, and Cole Custer once again. Though each of those drivers are on separate teams, they have proved to have the fastest cars and drivers that make the most time each week. Additionally because Texas is such a new track in terms of surface age, there will not be much difference when comparing short run and long run speed. With the lack in fall-off pertaining to lap times, this race will revolve around raw speed and perhaps more importantly track position. Any time you see really fast lap times that are close in proximity, passing becomes difficult and track position becomes more important. Those circumstances will be in play this weekend which minimizes handicapping narratives. Furthermore, the best betting targets are likely going to be the top 2-3 favorites which rarely have any considerable value at this time in the season. For those reasons, I plan on betting both races on Saturday and Sunday rather conservatively.

Practice Observations

When it comes to handicapping races in NASCAR, you have to understand track types and styles. Different handicapping strategies work more effectively at different race tracks for a variety of reasons and understanding those reasons is extremely important towards long term success. For Saturday night’s O’Reilly Auto Parts Challenge, I am going to put heavier emphasis on practice observations this week. Normally I would observe track history and loop data stats for handicapping but I don’t think those angles are nearly as effective at a track like Texas where raw speed is going to pay more dividends because of the track surface. Instead I think we should focus on practice observations combined with the 1.5 mile performance we have seen from teams/drivers in recent weeks in the Xfinity Series to identify our betting targets.

In both practices on Friday, Tyler Reddick emerged as the fastest guy leading into tomorrow night’s event. Reddick was considerably faster than everyone in Happy Hour including Cole Custer and Christopher Bell. Reddick finished 2nd to Kyle Busch in the spring race at Texas while Christopher Bell finished 3rd despite leading a race high 127 laps. I was a little surprised Bell was not stronger in practice but I still believe the #20 has to be considered the top threat along with Reddick going into Saturday night. If I were ranking competitors, I would probably slide Cole Custer into the #3 spot which is no surprise. However, there were some surprises deeper into the field which yielded a few names that may provide H2H and fantasy value.

Both Ross Chastain and Justin Allgaier emerged as top contenders based on practice observations. Chastain actually posted the fastest lap in Happy Hour with a mock qualifying run at 187.937mph. Before the mock run, Chastain was running consistent lap times that would flirt around the top 5. Justin Allgaier was also solid on the speed charts. Allgaier’s #7 Suave Men Chevrolet had excellent take off speed and if the team can improve the long run speed; they should be pretty strong. If you are looking for some sleeper style candidates that will provide value based around their expectations, consider guys like Jeb Burton and Brandon Brown to exceed expectations. Brown has posted 3 straight top 20 finishes and looks to have another solid car. Meanwhile, Burton appeared to be fast in Happy Hour and should be able to stay inside the top 10 barring misfortune.

Drivers to Fade

Based on the circumstances described previously, I am going to be conservative with H2H plays this week but will still pull the trigger if I can find a few match-ups that make sense. Going into Saturday, two drivers that I will be looking to potentially fade include the likes of Harrison Burton and Chase Briscoe. I watched Burton rather closely in practices and the speed was simply not there. I am betting that has more to do with the driver than the car. Either way, Texas is a track where you are in the gas for the majority of the lap and perhaps that is something the young Burton is struggling to accomplish. For Briscoe, we noticed last week that the speed of the #98 team was off. Briscoe actually describe the #98 team’s speed as the worst of the season. Fortunately the driving conditions allowed the talented driving of Briscoe to overcome the speed deficit and bring home a strong 3rd place finish. On Friday, the #98 team struggled heavily in the speed department for the 2nd straight week. Only this time, I don’t believe Texas Motor Speedway will be forgiving for the speed deficit and I that is why I am betting that Briscoe struggles more than normal Saturday evening.

2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 Optimal Lineup

2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Justin Allgaier +1650 (.75 unit)
Ross Chastain +8800 (.25 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Tyler Reddick +155 wins O’Reilly Auto Parts 300
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

Christopher Bell +170 wins O’Reilly Auto Parts 300
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Ross Chastain -120 over Harrison Burton (2 units)