2019 NASCAR Preseason Betting Predictions

NASCAR Preseason Betting Preview
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com

With the season less than a month away, betting lines for the 2019 season have been unveiled at many of the popular online sportsbooks. Obviously each NASCAR season is drastically different and there were certainly be some unexpected surprises. Last year, perhaps the biggest surprise was Jimmie Johnson going winless for the first time in his 18 year career. This year one of the biggest unknowns is the imminent rules package changes including tapered spacers that will reduce horsepower at most tracks over 1 mile in length. The tapered spacers that will have changes on engine production and new downforce changes will definitely have a big impact on the sport.

The million dollar question is who will adapt to the changes fastest and dominate this seemingly new era of NASCAR? Under the low downforce package, it was the “Big 3” of Martin Truex Jr, Kevin Harvick, and Kyle Busch that dominated on the intermediate surfaces. That will likely change to some degree to say the least. Obviously I do not have all the answers nor does anyone. Still, there are some intriguing early betting lines for the upcoming 2019 season that have grabbed my attention that simply have too much value to pass up. I have provided some of the best early selections that will go towards our 2019 official betting picks. Be sure to jump on these early if you plan on laying down any preseason bets!

All odds are courtesy of 5Dimes. If you want the best sportsbook for betting including NASCAR odds, get signed up for the upcoming 2019 season!

Total wins in a season – Kyle Larson (-120) over Ryan Blaney

In my opinion, Jimmie Johnson’s winless 2018 campaign was not as surprising as Kyle Larson’s equally winless season. The low downforce package fit Larson’s driving style perfectly because of the low grip handling conditions that required significant driver input. Despite the disappointing 2018 season, Larson still managed to put together 12 top 5 finishes compared to Blaney’s 8 during a season that Ford dominated. Blaney did capture a victory at the ROVAL in Charlotte thanks to that wild ending between Jimmie Johnson and Martin Truex Jr who wrecked coming to the checkered flag. Still, Larson was the more consistent front-runner and will continue to be moving forward. This bet seems simple on the basis Larson is the better driver and he proved it last year despite Chevrolet’s well documented struggles. Those struggles are not going to last forever nor will Larson’s winless streak. You have to play the probability angle here. At nearly even money, Larson has a ton of value to consider!

Official pick – Kyle Larson -120 (3 units)

Total season points – Kyle Busch -150 over Martin Truex Jr

I really love this pick despite a little extra chalk. The reasons may appear speculative at first but I believe there are plenty of good arguments to point towards Martin Truex Jr taking a step back in 2019. In fact, it would not be surprising if it was a big step back. Truex’s success over the last two years with Furniture Row Racing has been the best of the veterans’ 15 year career. During that time, he has joined the likes of Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch as the notorious “Big 3.” Truex’s 2017 season was the most impressive as he dominated the 1.5 mile tracks in route to 8 victories and a championship.

Truex continued that success last year with 4 victories but took a backseat to Harvick and Busch who had 8 wins each. Now Truex and crew chief Cole Pearn will have to seemingly start over at Joe Gibbs Racing for the no. 19 team. Sure there are some equipment similarities given the fact that Truex’s former team at Furniture Row Racing utilized JGR equipment. However, the new rules package and new team change will likely take away those hard fought advantages the team had gained against the competition in recent years. The #78 team thrived on long runs specifically at 1.5 mile tracks and it would be hard to see that continuing under this new rules package. Even if Pearn and Truex rekindled some of that advantageous magic in long run speed; they now share that information in the same organization as Rowdy. Busch is by far the better wheelman when you compare the larger portions of their career and is reaching the pinnacle of his career. It would be extremely surprising to see Truex surpass the #18 team and driver in his first year with Joe Gibbs Racing. Therefore, I don’t mind the chalk!

Official pick – Kyle Busch -150 (2 units)