2019 Lucas Oil 150 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander Outdoors Truck Series Betting Predictions
Friday November 8th, 8:34PM (EST) at ISM Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Two full weekends of racing among NASCAR’s top 3 series remain to finalize the 2019 season. This weekend, ISM Raceway will be the site that helps determine the Championship 4 for each series and the drivers that will earn the right to race for a championship next week at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Tonight the Gander Outdoors Truck Series will kick off the first race of the weekend with the running of the Lucas Oil 150 that features a stacked field of young talent. We take the time to discuss some of our expectations and provide the best betting options with our 2019 Lucas Oil 150 race picks for Phoenix!

There are quite a few interesting names that will suit up for tonight’s Lucas Oil 150. Brandon Jones returns to the #51 truck for Kyle Busch Motorsports for the 5th time this season, Chandler Smithw will be in the #46 truck for KBM, six-time series winner John Hunter Nemechek also returns in the #8, Dylan Lupton makes his 3rd start in the #5 following a pair of top 10 finishes previously, and Derek Kraus, the likely K&N Pro Series West Champion and infamous teammate of Hailie Deegan, makes his 4th Truck Series start of the season. Needless to say, there are a ton of interesting names that could sneak into competition tonight at the front of the field to challenge the playoff drivers for a potential checkered flag.

With so many talented drivers participating, I was really eager to see practices earlier today. Unfortunately, I am not sure if we learned a lot from those practices. Chandler Smith paced the field in the 1st practice with a lap of 133.740mph and Harrison Burton posted the fastest lap in final practice with a speed of 133.492mph. However, practice did not yield a lot of observable data. Very few drivers ran more than a handful of consecutive laps which limits our long-run predictive modeling. Furthermore, the Truck Series only races at Phoenix once a year so we are limited in the realm of track history and comparative performance that correlates with handicapping expectations. As a result, tonight’s race could be rather difficult to predict.

Practice Observations

From the data I was able to observe in practices and taking into account previous performance at Phoenix, Brett Moffitt emerges as one of the leading threats for the win. Moffitt is the defending winner of the Lucas Oil 150 and looked really solid in both practices earlier today. I would personally list Moffitt as the guy to beat but that is a rather conservative prediction. I also thought that Stewart Friesen, Chandler Smith, and Matt Crafton were also in the upper echelon of lap times in both practices. I’m not sure if you can trust Crafton or Friesen’s win percentages to justify their current odds but they both appear to have fast trucks nevertheless.

I personally really like the sharp potential of Chandler Smith who has looked really good against Truck Series competition earlier this year. Kyle Busch Motorsports’ Trucks have also been really strong in recent weeks which elevates their potential this evening. Harrison Burton and Todd Gilliland have been running better. I believe Burton has some upside value this evening as well after performing very well at Phoenix in 2018. Lastly, Brandon Jones should be a formiddable threat by technacality. However, Jones has largely underperformed in his 4 prior starts in the #51 truck despite a near win at Chicagoland. As a result, I think the best KBM threats this evening surround the #46 of Chandler Smith and the #18 of Harrison Burton.

Betting and Fantasy Targets

As stated above, I believe Chandler Smith is a sharp play tonight that will provide value in the realm of H2H match-ups and in the fantasy racing world. In the realm of fantasy, I believe Dylan Lupton and Derek Kraus are worth consideration at affordable price tags. Lupton has finished 10th in both his prior starts in the #5 truck and seems to get the better of his equipment. Meanwhile, Kraus participated in the 2018 Lucas Oil 150 which was his 1st start in the Gander Outdoors Truck Series. Kraus impressed in that showing with an 8th place finish. I’m not sure if Kraus has a top 10 truck again but could still provide fantasy value at just $7,800 especially if he fails to qualify up front.

For shaper predictions that carry some elevated risk due to variance, consider the likes of Grant Enfinger and Matt Crafton as potential H2H targets. Crafton and Enfinger have solid Phoenix resumes which should not be overlooked. I mentioned Crafton’s speed in practices earlier and though I know the #88 driver often underperforms; he still had quality speed. Enfinger is a driver that could likely fly under the radar after a pair of medicore practices on Friday. However, Enfinger has also finished better than where he started in 6 of the last 7 races. Therefore, I believe Enfinger and/or Crafton could provide some H2H value this evening, especially against a top favorite like Ross Chastain who struggled immensely in practices.

2019 Lucas Oil 150 Optimal Lineup

2019 Lucas Oil 150 Race Picks

*Final*

Stewart Friesen +600 (1 unit)
Brandon Jones +1000 (.75 unit)
Harrison Burton +2000 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Brett Moffitt +410 wins Lucas Oil 150
Team 2 – Open
Risking .75 unit to win: TBD