2019 Kansas Lottery 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Saturday October 19th, 3:11PM (EST) at Kansas Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Xfinity Series returns to action this afternoon at Kansas Speedway with the running of the Kansas Lottery 300. Not long ago, Christopher Bell earned the pole for today’s Kansas Lottery 300 with a lap of 181.165mph. After getting into the wall in final practice yesterday, Bell’s pole winning lap was just what the #20 team needed to turn things around. Bell is currently listed as the overall favorite to win this afternoon’s race along with Cole Custer and Tyler Reddick. Collectively, the big 3 will be big favorites to continue their season domination. As we prepare for 300 miles of racing at Kansas, we take the time to identify the best betting options and provide our 2019 Kansas Lottery 300 race picks!

Today’s race at Kansas Speedway marks the first race at a 1.5 mile track since Las Vegas in early September. So far this year, the Big 3 of Cole Custer, Christopher Bell, and Tyler Reddick have won 6 of the 8 races on 1.5 mile tracks. The only driver outside of the Big 3 to score wins on the 1.5 mile tracks was Kyle Busch early in the year. Therefore, the Big 3 are technically undefeated against their current Xfinity Series competition and should be considered big favorites this afternoon. In final practice yesterday, the Big 3 actually finished 1-2-3 in lap averages with Reddick, Custer, and Bell in the top 3 positions. Bell actually got into the wall in final practice and missed significant practice time. Bell was rim riding the high-line and simply got over the edge. The damage was not severe enough to force a back-up car but the team did lose a lot of valuable time in Happy Hour. Either way, the Big 3 remain the heavily favored guys ahead of this afternoon’s event with lap times that were in a league of their own.

Betting Targets

Among the favorites, I thought Tyler Reddick was clearly the guy to beat following Happy Hour on Friday. Reddick’s lap times were really strong especially on the early side of the run. From a handicapping standpoint, I would expect that fire off speed to mellow out as the race progresses. Kansas Speedway has enough fall-off in lap times to cause for concern. As a result, I think you have to also like Cole Custer’s chances today as well. Custer has been really strong at the tracks where tire wear has been a factor with recent wins at Chicago and Darlington. While Kansas does not have the same level of tire wear, the #00 car did show similar long run strength that will likely be a major factor as the race progresses.

If you are looking for dark horse threats, I am not putting too much value in the “dark horse” title this week. I think this race will be decided among the Big 3 unless they take each other out. However, there are a few drivers that are worth consideration in the realm of H2H match-ups. Those drivers include Ross Chastain and Austin Cindric. It was announced earlier this week that Chastain will drive the #10 car full-time next season in the Xfinity Series and he has performed rather well in the #10 for Kaulig Racing. I am not sure if the #10 has race winning speed but they have enough speed to stay competitive throughout the afternoon. The same can be said for Austin Cindric in the #22 car. For some reason, Cindric is not getting the attention he deserves. The driver of the #22 has been fantastic throughout the playoffs with finishes of 2nd, 3rd, and 3rd through the opening 3 races. With another solid practice under his belt, Cindric has a lot of momentum, speed, and confidence going into today’s race.

Fantasy Targets

I dont have a ton of “betting” targets this afternoon. Part of that is because of my faith towards the Big 3 and another part is because I don’t trust everything I saw in practice. For example, in theory this should be a great track for a driver like Chase Briscoe. However, Briscoe and the #98 team struggled in both practices yesterday. While that observation may be concerning, I expect Briscoe to be much better when the green flag waves this afternoon. I have similar mixed observations for several drivers. Needless to say, they are not checking or checking off all the boxes to target/fade this afternoon.

For fantasy purposes, I have a few additional guys that I would like to mention. BJ McLeod is a good lower end flier that could provide some value. McLeod qualified in the 25th position and should likely have some run for improvement. In McLeod’s other 3 starts in the #4 car for Johnny Davis, he has finished 20th, 19th, and 22nd which were all at intermediate style tracks. McLeod had good speed in practices on Friday and could flirt with a top 15 finish if things go their way. In terms of place differential, Harrison Burton had a poor qualifying effort (16th) but I would expect to race well. I believe similar potential exists for both Chase Briscoe and Ross Chastain who will be starting from the 11th and 9th positions.

Drives to Fade

Brandon Jones qualified in the 2nd position this afternoon which will likely elevate his odds to some degree. Jones looked decent in practices but I don’t believe he is a top 5 car. If any match-ups open up with reasonable odds against the favorites, Jones will be worth fading. John Hunter Nemechek is one of my favorite fades this afternoon and one of my favorite fades in recent weeks. I have been calling out the #23 for lacking speed in recent weeks and the same rule applies this week. For whatever reason, the #23 team is not getting the job done and until something changes; John Hunter will be worth fading. Lastly if some really low end match-up are offered, consider fading Timmy Hill. In a few recent races, they have opened odds for nearly every driver. If you can find a match-up with Hill, I would fade with complete confidence. In 5 prior starts with the #13 car, the team has never finished a race and all for equipment breakdowns. I don’t want to say this is a park and start team but they are very close to it.

2019 Kansas Lottery 300 Optimal Lineup

2019 Kansas Lottery 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Austin Cindric +4400 (.25 unit) *early play
Harrison Burton +6600 (.25 unit) *early play
Ross Chastain +7000 (.25 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Tyler Reddick +235 wins Kansas Lottery 300
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

Cole Custer +195 over Christopher Bell
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD *early play

H2H Match-ups

Brandon Jones -115 over Harrison Burton (2 units)