2019 Indiana 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Saturday September 7th, 3:19PM (EST) at Indianapolis Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The spotlight will shine on NASCAR’s Xfinity Series once again on Saturday with the running of the Indiana 250 at the infamous Indianapolis Motor Speedway. A few of NASCAR’s Cup Series stars will join the Xfinity Series regulars to help intensify the racing action. Among the participants includes Austin Dillon and Kyle Busch whose 3 prior victories in the Xfinity Series at Indianapolis ranks #1 all-time. While Kyle Busch will be the heavy favorite on Saturday, tomorrow’s race may provide a better opportunity for some intriguing dark horses. It’s time to discuss betting strategy and reasons why we may see a “surprise” winner on Saturday. Take a look at our 2019 Indiana 250 race picks!

Before we begin diving into potential betting targets, I want to provide an overview of the type of racing that will unfold on Saturday. The Xfinity Series has elected to run the restrictor plate package for the 3rd consecutive year at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. As a result, it’s going to be hard for any driver to run away with this race in the front of the field. This particular package is designed to keep cars close together which handicaps some of the better talents like Kyle Busch and the Big 3 that have combined to win 19 of the 24 races in the Xfinity Series this season. Those 4 drivers will likely be upfront for most of the afternoon in some form or fashion. However, they will not be able to drive away from the competition meaning track position and timing will be equally important towards capturing a winning formula at the end of 250 miles.

In each of the prior two races under this package at Indianapolis, the race has failed to produce a winner from the overall favorites. In 2017, William Byron scored an upset at 10-1 odds over the likes of Kyle Busch and Joey Logano. Last year, Justin Allgaier cashed at roughly 15-1 odds over the likes of Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney. So needless to say, this race is rather unpredictable in nature because track position is so critical at the end of this event. As a result, I believe it is important that we understand that though the top 4 drivers are big favorites; we should still give consideration to other drivers this week that could play the spoiler role. From a strategic standpoint, I believe this race’s uncertainty is not ideal for bettors or handicappers alike. As a result, we should approach this race with a low risk narrative and provide opportunity by taking a few additional drivers than we would in a normal weekend.

In practices on Friday, I believe Tyler Reddick emerged as the best car among the favorites or perhaps best car overall. The #2 car was really fast on the stopwatch and it is worth mentioning that Reddick scored a runner-up finish in this race one year ago which should elevate his stock as well. Christopher Bell and Kyle Busch were also solid among the favorites and because lap times are usually overvalued in practices at Indianapolis; I am sure those guys will be at the front of the field on talent alone. Still, we are talking about racing and speed is always a precursor to success. Reddick at least appeared to have the best speed on Friday.

Drivers to Target

The fun aspect of Saturday’s Indiana 250 is the potential for dark horses to emerge at the front of the field with a legitimate chance at victory. Not only have we seen this scenario play out in this race in previous years but there were some serious speed shown by a few unlikely threats on Friday. One of the drivers that emerged into consideration was Brandon Jones in the #19 car. I don’t believe I have mentioned Jones this year other than to fade the #19. However, Jones and the #19 team had serious speed in both practices earlier today which provokes at least the idea of an unlikely contender that could provide value in terms of betting odds.

A couple of other threats that I believe have some potential in dark horse or perhaps fantasy potential includes Justin Allgaier and Justin Haley. Haley consistently gets the best of his equipment which in theory should be ideal for this type of race. The #11 was among the top 5 cars in nearly every category on speed. Meanwhile, Justin Allgaier is trying to end his winless drought which dates back to last year’s Indiana 250. Admittedly, Allgaier and the #7 team has not shown race winning speed this season. However, the JR Motorsports cars have always performed well under this package and that provides opportunity for the #7 team.

Lastly, another name that I believe deserves a considerable amount of respect for this type of race includes the #98 of Chase Briscoe. The #98 car did not exactly show an overwhelming amount of speed on Friday but I am not sure if I would let that discourage anyone from considering Briscoe’s chances. However, Chase Briscoe has been one of the most consistent frontrunners in the Xfinity Series throughout the 2nd half of the season. Unfortunately outside of the 1 win at Iowa, his strong performances have been largely overshadowed by the Big 3’s success. In fact, Briscoe has finished 7th or better in 8 straight races and if he can stay upfront again on Saturday; then the #98 could be a viable threat.

Drivers to Fade

I don’t have many drivers to truly “fade” on Saturday. I believe the strategy for this race would be taking low risk gambles on a few drivers that could sustain track position and have a chance late in this race that provides high upside. With the restrictor plates, this event becomes a race focused around track position which could provoke negative side effects for betting match-ups. Typically we should favor betting match-ups at the tracks where track position provides less cause and effect. We handicap for driver ability, speed, and track history among other things. Those factors do not coincide with strategy and track position.

As a result, Indianapolis is not the greatest track for bettors and I believe there will be better “handicapping” tracks in the weeks ahead. Also, I am going to avoid any optimal fantasy lineups this week as I don’t like the volatility that pertains to this style of racing. If you want to place a fantasy lineup, I would focus on poor starting positions among the quality drivers. I hate to exclude fantasy this week as I know readers enjoy my thoughts. However, I am a bettor first and foremost. I respectively don’t force action when I do not see any upside or advantage which coincides with my strategy for this week’s race.

2019 Indiana 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Tyler Reddick +850 (1 unit)
Justin Allgaier +1500 (.75 unit)
Brandon Jones +2500 (.5 unit)
Chase Briscoe +4400 (.25 unit)
Justin Haley +11000 (.25 unit)

H2H Match-Ups

Christopher Bell +345 wins Indiana 250
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

Justin Haley +145 over Austin Dillon
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Noah Gragson -130 over Jeb Burton (2 units) *early play