2019 Hollywood Casino 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday October 20th, 2:48PM (EST) at Kansas Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Monster Energy Cup Series will make their 2nd stop at Kansas Speedway on Sunday for the running of the Hollywood Casino 400. Tomorrow’s event marks the final race in the Round of 12. Currently several big names are outside the cut off line including Alex Bowman, Chase Elliott, Clint Bowyer, and William Byron. Those drivers will either need a win or a huge afternoon in points to keep their championship hopes alive. While the fight for the championship continues, we turn our focus towards breaking down our expectations and exploiting the best betting options for Sunday. Take a look as we provide our 2019 Hollywood Casino 400 race picks for Kansas!

Back in May, Brad Keselowski drove the #2 car to victory lane at Kansas in the Digital Ally 400. Despite having 3 wins this season, the victory back at Kansas was Keselowski’s last trip to victory lane. The good news is that Keselowski has looked good thus far this weekend and will have an excellent opportunity to go after another win following a 4th place qualifying effort earlier today. However for that to happen, Bad Brad will have to contend with some fast cars from Joe Gibbs Racing among others to get the job done. Following Friday’s two practices, Joe Gibbs Racing cars of Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, and Martin Truex Jr flexed their muscles in Happy Hour to show tremendous speed going into the weekend.

Let’s talk Kansas

When it comes to track history at Kansas, Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick lead all active drivers with 3 victories each. Harvick’s victories have been the most recent including 2 wins in the last 6 races. In terms of more recent trends, the likes of Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Martin Truex own the best average finishes over the last 10 races. Truex swept both 2017 races in that dominate 2017 campaign. Meanwhile before Kyle Busch’s 30th place finish in May, Rowdy owned a lucrative 5th place average finishing position in the prior 8 races at Kansas including a 2016 victory.

With these things in mind, I think we can make some assumptions on who the favorites will likely be on Sunday. Still, we must keep in mind that trends and averages are just that especially at 1.5 mile tracks. The good news is that Kansas has enough fall-off in lap times from tire wear and different racing grooves that truly make it a drivers track. Unlike Kentucky or Texas that are completely speed/aero dependent from recent repaves, Kansas has some character that benefits from driver input. As a result, I think recent loop data over the last 5 races is important to showing the drivers that routinely run best during races at Kansas.

Rk	Driver	Races	Avg. Start	Avg. Run Pos	Avg. Finish	Laps Led	Fast Laps	Average
1	Kevin Harvick	5	2.8	5.2	7.4	306	228	124.5
2	Kyle Busch	5	6	6.2	11.4	172	126	110.5
3	Martin Truex Jr	5	10.8	9.8	5.6	208	133	108.6
4	Ryan Blaney	5	12	7.4	16.6	149	104	102.6
5	Kyle Larson	5	21.2	12.4	12	101	78	99.2
6	Chase Elliott	5	17.2	13.2	10	89	57	98.2
7	Brad Keselowski	5	8.2	12.2	7.2	56	81	97.5
8	Alex Bowman	3	11.3	10.7	9.7	63	41	95.6
9	Kurt Busch	5	9.8	11.8	10.8	10	10	90.8
10	Erik Jones	5	12.4	12.4	14.2	2	36	88.9

As you can see, Kevin Harvick has clearly been dominant in terms of average driver rating in recent events with an incredible 124.5 average. For Harvick to continue that trend, he will have to overcome starting from the rear on Sunday. The #4 team failed to pass inspection prior to qualifying on Saturday and did not get to post a timed lap. As a result, the #4 team will start at the rear of the field despite having a fast car. For the rest of the drivers listed above in terms of loop data, Kyle Busch has really strong numbers but needs to break a recent slump. Truex has been solid but the 2017 races are compiling the bulk of that strength. Meanwhile guys like Ryan Blaney and Brad Keselowski remain interesting targets. Blaney provides true dark horse potential but Keselowski will likely be a touch overvalued.

Betting Targets

I believe tomorrow’s race could be really competitive at the front of the field especially if the Joe Gibbs Racing cars back up their speed in practices. I still believe Kevin Harvick has the fastest car overall but the JGR cars along with Keselowski are really close. Luckily I have a parlay pending from today’s Xfinity Series race that will help yield some value with the favorites that I choose to close out the parlay. However, this could be a race where another parlay is worth considering because we will need to create some value for the drivers that will likely be contending for the victory.

In terms of dark horses and H2H match-ups, I believe everyone should have Ryan Blaney, Kyle Busch, and Kurt Busch on their radar as really sharp match-up options. I know “Rowdy” has not been trending in the right direction but the #18 was extremely fast in Happy Hour. Despite an 18th place qualifying effort, I am expecting a turn around performance for the #18 team. For Ryan Blaney, he is a guy that has been right there with the leaders all weekend. Blaney is also registered high on our loop data stats and maybe even has some momentum following last week’s win at Talladega. I really like Blaney and Kurt Busch as guys that will not be in the group of “favorites” but provide tremendous upside in match-ups based on the drivers they are paired against.

Drives to Fade

If I were to recommend drivers to fade ahead of Sunday’s 400 miles at Kansas, I would likely start with the majority of the Chevrolet drivers. In the wake of near must-win situations for Byron, Bowman, and Elliott to keep their championship hopes alive. Hendrick Motorsports struggled throughout Friday’s practices which is surprising given the circumstances and the recent success guys like Elliott/Bowman have produced at Kansas. Elliott was among the top 4 favorites entering the weekend but does not appear to have the speed to match the odds. I am not even sure if Elliott had top 10 speed judging by pure lap times. Even though I expect Elliott to race better going into Sunday, I would still list the #9 as a fade against other so-called favorites.

Another driver that I have pegged as a “fade” includes the #6 of Ryan Newman. I normally stay away from betting/fading Newman because I have respect for his driving despite mediocre equipment. However, the #6 team is another group that struggled significantly on Friday. Newman had handling issues and they reportedly never made much ground with the changes. Additionally, Newman has struggled in recent races at Kansas with finishes of 40th, 33rd, 30th, 15th, and 23rd in the last 5 starts. With the practice observation and recent trends combined, I am going to also list Newman into the fade category for Sunday.

2019 Hollywood Casino 400 Optimal Lineup

2019 Hollywood Casino 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Brad Keselowski +1000 (1 unit)
Joey Logano +1100 (1 unit)
Denny Hamlin +1200 (.75 unit)
Kurt Busch +2400 (.5 unit)
Alex Bowman +2500 (.5 unit) *early play
William Byron +3300 (.5 unit) *early play

Two Team Parlay

Cole Custer +195 over Christopher Bell (win)
Kyle Busch +360 wins Hollywood Casino 400
Risking 1 unit to win: +1250

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ryan Blaney -155 over William Byron (2 units)
Matt Tift -120 over Landon Cassill (2 units) *early play
Kevin Harvick -130 over Kyle Busch (2 units) *early play