2019 Go Bowling at the Glen Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday August 4th, 3:18PM (EST) at Watkins Glen International
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Over the last few weeks, we have witnessed some of the most exciting racing of the season mixed with improved competitiveness at the front of the field and clutch finishes that fully entertained. Fortunately, the intensity on the track has been matched by our betting picks that have now profited in 6 of the last 7 weekends. After another solid win yesterday that featured Austin Cindric’s first career Xfinity Series victory, we now have an opportunity to put more pressure on the bookies as we switch focus to Sunday’s Go Bowling at the Glen which will feature NASCAR’s best drivers for 90 laps at Watkins Glen International. We take this time to discuss the drivers that should be on everyone’s radar, drivers to fade, betting advice, and ultimately provide our 2019 Go Bowling at the Glen race picks!

Earlier today Cup Series teams participated in 2 practices followed by qualifying in the afternoon hours. In qualifying, Chase Elliott backed up his 2018 victory at the Glen by winning the Busch Pole Award with a lap of 127.297mph. Elliott’s lap is officially labeled the “provisional pole” because inspection will not take place until Sunday. Once cars make it through inspection, the starting lineup will be official. Either way, Elliott has proved that he has returned to defend his throne. Let’s also not forget, Elliott was strong at Sonoma despite the fact all Hendrick cars performed poorly. Elliott was a top 5 car for most of the afternoon before the engine expired on the #9 machine. If you look at Elliott’s body of work over his young career, he has been rock solid at the road course tracks with a 12.88 average finishing position which ranks 3rd among active drivers. Furthermore, the driver of the #9 appears to get better with every appearance and is on the fast track to becoming one of the elite road course drivers in the series.

In the conversation of elite road course drivers, Martin Truex Jr and Kyle Busch currently lead the debate. Busch has 4 victories in 30 career starts including 2 victories at the Glen. Meanwhile, Truex has compile 4 victories in just 28 career starts with 3 at Sonoma and a 2017 victory at the Glen. However, Truex’s 4 victories are perhaps more impressive considering all of those wins have come in the last 14 road course events given the driver of the #19 the edge in the debate. Truex held off a fast charging Busch at Sonoma just over a month ago which seemed to prove that he has become the best road course driver in the business. Now both drivers will get another opportunity to flex their talent and show why they are considered the best at these unique layouts.

From a practices standpoint, I was not nearly as impressed with Truex’s lap times compared to some of the other top drivers. Furthermore, Watkins Glen does not see the same type of fall off in lap times like Sonoma where Truex’s long run speed typically shines. As a result, I will likely not have the #19 on my betting lineup. Instead, I believe the likes of Chase Elliott and Kyle Busch will be your best favorites to bet on Sunday. Another driver that could join that upper echelon of favorites includes the #11 of Denny Hamlin. We cashed Hamlin last week at Pocono and I think it’s worth mentioning that it could have easily been Hamlin’s 2nd win in a row if you consider the ending at New Hampshire. The point I am making is that the #11 team has found speed and is starting to hit their stride, which is a good sign. It is also a good sign that Hamlin has become really solid at Watkins Glen in recent years including a 2016 victory. I thought Hamlin was among the better cars in final practice in Happy Hour so he may be worth some consideration with a ton of momentum on his side.

Watkins Glen Dark Horses

One of the drivers that I had on my radar this week was William Byron but he did not help his value when he qualified in the 2nd position this afternoon. Byron had a really strong run in this race last year as a rookie that resulted in an 8th place finish. Byron has taken a big step forward in recent weeks and it would not surprise me to see the #24 team get a victory at some point this season. Byron’s 5 lap average in Happy Hour was 4th quick and we know how important starting upfront is at the road course venues. As a result, I think Byron definitely deserves some attention. Likewise, I think most of the Hendrick Motorsports cars looked strong this afternoon. It’s weird to say this but it seems like as an organization, Hendrick is hit or miss from week to week. After 2 weeks of poor performances, they have brought some speed to the track which elevates the value of Alex Bowman and Jimmie Johnson in H2H situations.

One additional dark horse that I think will probably bring some value in the form of H2H match-ups includes the #42 of Kyle Larson. I know Kyle Larson is not an appetizing name considering the performance from the #42 team this season. However, Larson has posted top 5 finishes in 3 of the last 5 races. Furthermore, I thought his lap times were really good on Saturday as well. In fact if not for one mishap, he would have been among the fastest 5 lap averages in Happy Hour. Trust me when I say, Larson’s lap times were very solid and with little talk surrounding the #42 team these days; he may provide the type of upside we need in match-ups.

Drivers to Fade

Honestly, I think you could probably fade Martin Truex Jr on Sunday among your top drivers. Truex is definitely better at Sonoma as compared to Watkins Glen. Furthermore, the #19 team did not show anything on Saturday to hint they have a car capable of winning. Obviously fading Truex carries some risk given his success at these venues so I would not blame anyone from avoiding that particular fade. If you want another driver to fade among the popular names, consider fading Kevin Harvick. Harvick has never been a great driver at the Glen. Despite a win in 2006, Harvick has scored just one top 5 finish in his last 12 starts at the Glen. I personally thought all of the Stewart-Haas cars struggled this afternoon and Harvick was not any exception with the 21st best lap on the board and lap averages that were outside the top 15. As a result, I believe Harvick presents a strong fade opportunity on Sunday if given the correct match-ups.

A couple of additional names that you can always fade at road course races includes both Dillon brothers. The race is currently on to determine who is the worst Dillon brother at the road course races and it is not a race worth mentioning. Currently, Austin Dillon host a measly 24th place average finishing position through 12 career starts. Meanwhile younger brother Ty Dillon has posted a 25th place average finishing position through 6 career starts. Lastly, one additional name that I will throw out that could be an automatic fade is the #10 car of Aric Almirola. Almirola has been flat awful at Watkins Glen and I would consider his stock is declining further with Stewart-Haas’ struggles earlier today. Almirola best finish at the Glen is 16th so if we can find any decent match-ups with fair odds, you can usually fade Almirola at the Glen with full confidence.

2019 Draftkings Go Bowling at the Glen Optimal Lineup

*Subject to change depending on pre-race inspection*

2019 Go Bowling at the Glen Race Picks

*More plays to be posted

Denny Hamlin +1000 (1 unit)
William Byron +2200 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +3000 (.5 unit) *early play
Daniel Suarez +3000 (.5 unit) *early play

Two Team Parlays

AJ Allmendinger +140 over Ryan Blaney
Kyle Busch +240 wins Go Bowling at the Glen
Risking 1 unit to win: +715

H2H Match-Ups

William Byron -125 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
Chase Elliott +160 over Martin Truex Jr (2 units)