2019 Go Bowling 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Friday September 20th, 7:44PM (EST) at Richmond Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The first race of the Xfinity Series playoffs will take place tonight with the running of the Go Bowling 250 at Richmond Raceway. As we have seen all season, the Big 3 of Christopher Bell, Cole Custer, and Tyler Reddick are poised to battle for a championship unless an unforeseen contender emerges. Back in April, Cole Custer won the first round at Richmond in the ToyotaCare 250. Custer led 122 of the 250 scheduled laps which ended Christopher Bell’s two-race winning streak at Richmond. Tonight both Custer and Bell return as the major favorites to kick off the playoffs. We discuss everything you need to know and the best betting options as we provide our 2019 Go Bowling 250 race picks!

Despite being a ¾ mile short track, Richmond Raceway remains one of the most tire sensitive tracks in the sport with tire fall off mirroring the likes of Chicagoland and Darlington. Back in the April races, we saw the importance of long run speed in the Cup Series race when Martin Truex ran down Joey Logano in the closing laps from several seconds back. Therefore when we look at lap times from today’s practices for both Xfinity Series and Cup Series teams, 5-10 lap averages should be given minimal credibility. Barring any short runs to the checkered flag, winning speed will likely come from the cars that are best after the 20 lap mark as short run speed wilters and long run speed emerges.

In today’s lone practice session, Justin Allgaier and Christopher Bell were the names that emerged as the top of the 20 lap average charts. Neither name should be too surprising. Before the April race, Christopher Bell had won 2 straight at Richmond and he has also dominated the short tracks throughout 2019. What people may not remember is that Justin Allgaier’s best race this season come at Richmond back in the spring. Allgaier had the fastest car for the first half of the race but lost track position due to pit strategy and failed to recover late. I know Allgaier has been a huge bust this season compared to his 2018 victories. However, Richmond provides the #7 team their best opportunity to end the winless streak.

In terms of practice observations, both of my early long shot predictions looked good. I took both Harrison Burton and Zane Smith at 66-1 at the onset of openers. Both drivers were in the top 4 speeds for drivers that ran 25 consecutive laps. I have stated many times that I believe Harrison Burton’s more talented in a stock car compared to his Truck Series resume. More importantly, Burton is behind the wheel of one of the best teams in the garage as well. For Zane Smith, he is another young driver with incredible upside that has looked good in his prior starts. While I would not label either driver a huge threat for a victory, both are capable of producing quality runs at the front of the field this evening.

Go Bowling 250 betting targets

Aside from the names already mentioned, I believe Noah Gragson looked really strong in practices and should likely be given consideration for both fantasy and betting options. Gragson has performed really well throughout the 2nd half of the year and currently has a streak of 4 consecutive finishes inside the top 8 positions. The team appears to be unloading faster race cars and Gragson appears to be maximizing the results. Both good signs heading into tonight’s race.

Another driver that is trending in the right direction in both performance and speed shown in practices includes the #11 of Justin Haley. Haley has finished in the Top 15 in 15 of the last 16 races with numerous quality runs inside the Top 10 for the Kaulig Racing Team. From a performance standpoint, the Kaulig Racing cars have performed best when they have been away from the 1.5 mile aero sensitive tracks. Haley has shown some promising upside and was among the top tiers cars in practice speeds earlier today. Admittedly, I believe Haley is a risky option with a lower ceiling but I do like the way the #11 team is trending heading into tonight’s event.

Drivers to fade

The top driver that everyone should consider fading this evening is Tyler Reddick. I mentioned the prominence of the Big 3 earlier and it has been well documented throughout the year. Despite popular opinion, Reddick has been very good at the short tracks this year. Reddick has posted a victory at Bristol, a runner-up at Bristol, a top 5 at Iowa, a top 5 at Dover, and also a solid 4th place finish in the Richmond race back in April. Those stats are pretty impressive for a driver many claim to “struggle” at the short tracks. Either way, I think this is an opportunity to fade Reddick against the top tier drivers. Reddick struggled significantly in practices today especially with the handling of the #2 car. Handling issues prevented the team from running long consecutive runs like most other teams and that could become a huge issue if it is not completely fixed going into tonight’s event. I know the results do not warrant a fade but Reddick’s driving style does not exactly favor high tire wear tracks either. When you combine that factor with the struggles in practice, I feel pretty confident in fading the #2 team this evening against the other top tier options.

Draftkings 2019 Go Bowling 250 Fantasy Optimal Lineup

2019 Go Bowling 250 Race Picks

*Final*

Tyler Reddick +1200 (.5 unit)
Zane Smith +6600 (.25 unit) *early play
Harrison Burton +6600 (.25 unit) *early play

Two Team Parlays

Justin Allgaier +365 wins Go Bowling 250
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

Christopher Bell +100 wins Go Bowling 250
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1.5 units to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Zane Smith -135 over Michael Annett (2 units)