2019 Gander RV Duels Betting Preview

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Thursday February 14th, 2019 7:00PM EST
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com

The front row for the 61st running of the Daytona 500 was locked on Sunday when the young talents of William Byron and Alex Bowman secured the top two starting spots for the Great American Race. On Thursday, the remaining lineup for the Daytona 500 will be decided with the annual running of the Gander RV Duels. For NASCAR fans and bettors alike, Thursday’s duel races will be the beginning of 4 consecutive days of exciting races combined with intriguing betting opportunities. With the fun of restrictor plate racing in the windshield, the opportunity for a big payout awaits. Therefore, let’s take a quick look at a few potential betting opportunities with our 2019 Gander RV Duels betting preview!

If you have not seen my post and prior comments about speedweeks, I typically approach the Daytona races very conservatively. Call it a habit, maybe somewhat superstitious, or perhaps just conservative. Either way, I just don’t like the idea of throwing a bunch of units towards the most unpredictable races of the year. Last year I did nail all 4 Cup Series plate races and will seek 5 in a row on Sunday with the Daytona 500. With those things in mind, I must admit that there are plenty of drivers that I believe deserve some consideration throughout all series this weekend. For now, let’s just stick to Thursday night’s Duels.

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At first glance, the opening Gander RV Duel race appears to be the toughest. The likes of Martin Truex Jr, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, and Brad Keselowski jump off the page as the top names in the sport. We could also throw honorable mentions to Ricky Stenhouse Jr and Jimmie Johnson who have proven plate resumes. For Keselowski, he is undoubtedly the best restrictor plate driver in the Cup Series even if the majority of his success has been at Talladega. Either way, Duel 1 has some pretty big names that will capture most betting attention. In my opinion, this is the race that presents the most value if you want to consider some long shots. I personally believe a pair of rookies deserve some consideration by way of Daniel Hemric (+2750) and Tyler Reddick (+6600).

Surely, both rookies may appear as relatively huge underdogs as they embark on their 1st event at the Cup Series level. I don’t think that should be the case for a number of reasons. For starters, both drivers have shown strong restrictor plate skills in the Xfinity Series. Say what you want, but both guys know what to do in the draft. Additionally, the Chevrolet cars have looked really good throughout all Daytona sessions thus far. Obviously we will probably learn a little more after tomorrow’s Duel races but so far so good for the Chevy teams. Another reason that I believe these two drivers are undervalued is because they are planning to work together and have stated that publicly. Teamwork does not always work out in pack racing. However if they can get together towards the end of this 60 lap dash, magical things could happen. Furthermore, I believe we may see more single file racing similar to last week’s dash. If that happens, teamwork may be a recipe for success. Even if the teamwork outcome does not prevail, both drivers are still capable of winning and are bargains at their current odds.

If you are looking for other options, I am hesitant to suggest any of the top guys primarily based on betting value. Brad Keselowski has a history of poor finishes in this race and I just can’t see backing him at less than 5 to 1 odds. I like the potential for guys like Martin Truex Jr and Paul Menard. Despite their history at plate racing, I believe they will surprise in this race. I just wish their odds were a little better than 9 to 1. For the rest of the guys, you can’t go wrong with Harvick or Rowdy despite their history for being hit or miss at the plate races. I still have hard time finding the value in the low odds. If I end up throwing some small bets down for this opening Duel, it will probably be solely on the drivers with longer odds.

Duel 1 Suggested Bets:

Kyle Busch +850 (.5 unit)
Martin Truex +950 (.5 unit)
Daniel Hemric +2750 (.25 unit)
Tyler Reddick +6600 (.25 unit)

For the Gander RV Duel 2 race, I think this race may be better suited for the standard betting formats. What I mean by that is the fact that you can probably take a favorite, middle-range driver, and maybe 1-2 long shots while sustaining value for all bets. My initial thoughts are that obviously Joey Logano and Denny Hamlin are the heavyweights in this race. I can’t say I would be surprised if Logano got out front and stayed there in this race. Hamlin and Chase Elliott poses as threats but with Logano starting so close to the front, he may be tough to beat if he does not get shuffled to the back.

The drivers in the middle range category are wide open with options. Defending Daytona 500 winner Austin Dillon is in the mix and so is Erik Jones who won the Coke Zero 400 at Daytona last July. You also have the likes of Kurt Busch, Kyle Larson, Clint Bowyer, Aric Almirola, and Ryan Blaney to add to the discussion. The elder Busch probably has the most plate racing success out of the group but I don’t think anyone would be shocked if any of those other names prevailed. Kurt Busch’s odds are a little lower than I would like but I like his chances. Erik Jones has better value and should be taken as a middle range opportunity.

Lastly if you are looking for a long shot option in the final duel race, don’t overlook the options of David Ragan and Michael McDowell. Both drivers have provided numerous “surprising” plate performances. I say “surprising” for the casual fan. Both drivers are very good plate racing talents and stay in the undervalued category only because of their equipment. At 55-1 odds for both, I think you have to throw something small at both if you are going to bet this race. Of course, I like to bet the long shots on these races so I maybe a little bias in my suggestion but I like value. So if you are looking for value, McDowell and Ragan are great options.

Duel 2 Suggested Bets:

Joey Logano +500 (1 unit)
Kurt Busch +850 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +1900 (.25 unit)
Michael McDowell +5500 (.25 unit)
David Ragan +5500 (.25 unit)