2019 Gander RV 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday July 28th, 3:18PM (EST) at Pocono Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Monster Energy Cup Series makes their return to the Tricky Triangle this afternoon with the running of the Gander RV 400 at Pocono Raceway. Nearly two months ago, Kyle Busch scored his 2nd straight victory at Pocono by winning the Pocono 400. Busch has won 3 of the last 4 races at the Tricky Triangle and is looking to become the first driver to sweep both Pocono races in the same year since Dale Earnhardt Jr last did it in 2014. Currently Busch is listed as an overwhelming favorite at just better than 2-1 odds. We take this time to discuss the best betting options as we prepare for round 2 at Pocono!

Track officials elected to apply the PJ1 traction compound this week at Pocono in hopes to enhance the racing. While the traction compound was used throughout all turns, the major areas of focus was the outer lanes in turns 1 and 3. I am sure the intentions were to provide better racing. However judging by yesterday’s Truck Series race, the preferred racing groove has not changed. Instead, the traction compound just made it more difficult to pass drivers with extra grip at the top of the race track. Therefore I think this traction compound did not change much as far as how drivers/teams will approach this race from a setup standpoint but instead puts a bigger emphasis on track position.

Racing at Pocono has always been about track position and occasionally fuel mileage. I expect that trend to continue this afternoon when the green flag waves. Aside from Kyle Busch who is a more than deserving favorite, Kevin Harvick has vaulted up the expectations ladder after winning the pole on Saturday. Harvick ended his winless streak last week at New Hampshire and will now look to end another winless streak at Pocono. Harvick is currently 0 for 37 at Pocono which is one of the few tracks on the circuit where he has never captured a victory. Despite several runner-up finishes, Harvick is still searching for that 1st victory. Admittedly, I am a little surprised to see Harvick with such low odds (+300 currently). I did not see overwhelming speed from the #4 car in practices on Saturday. In fact, I thought they struggled a bit with consistency. So either odds have overreacted to the pole or I have missed something in my handicapping for this race.

Personally, I am excited for this afternoon’s race because the guys that did show speed on Saturday are not your normal characters. If you remember my early preview this week, I specifically called out Erik Jones and Denny Hamlin as drivers to watch this weekend. My basis for that prediction was current form and the speed of the JGR cars on the horsepower tracks. After 2 practices on Saturday, I am convinced both Jones and Hamlin have a great shot to win this afternoon. Overall I thought Hamlin had the best overall speed out of anyone in the field especially on the longer run. The #11 team has found some momentum in recent weeks and Hamlin’s 4 wins at Pocono are worthy of elevating his stock. Therefore, I am putting the #11 towards the top of my list this afternoon.

Beyond Hamlin, William Byron and Erik Jones were the next best options in terms of speed. Byron won the pole back in the June race and led 25 laps before finishing in 9th position. Admittedly, I was conservative on my expectations for the #24 this week. However, the #24 car has been extremely fast since unloading and Byron has been among the fastest cars with every trip to the racing surface. My biggest question for Byron is can he hold up for the full 400 miles at the front of the field? He is still a young driver and lacks some of the experience needed in clutch situations. Meanwhile, Erik Jones is another young driver that is looking to breakout this afternoon. Jones is winless in 2019 but has consistently provided quality finishes in recent weeks. Furthermore, Jones has always performed well at Pocono throughout his young career with a 9.6 average finishing position in 5 career starts which is the best in the Cup Series. I thought the #20 had really good speed in practices and Jones helped matters when he qualified in the 4th position yesterday afternoon. I took Jones at openers this week at 22-1 odds and I am extremely happy with the value that early bet presents as today green flag approaches.

There were not many other drivers that provoked the same level of confidence as far as race winning speed. Kurt Busch, Martin Truex, and Brad Keselowski all have solid Pocono resumes. However, I just did not see the overwhelming speed indicator indicative of backing those drivers this afternoon. Truex was decent on speed. I think the same can be said for Busch who vaulted up to P2 in Happy Hour after a mock qualifying run. Meanwhile, Keselowski did not have the speed that I expected the #2 team to have on Saturday. Instead if I had to throw out a couple additional names who could surprise on Saturday, I would consider the likes of Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney. Both the #22 and #12 cars showed decent speed on Saturday and typically race better than they practice which could be a good sign.

Drivers to Fade

The two drivers that I am looking to fade this afternoon have had similar troubles this weekend. Both Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott were forced to go to backup cars after accidents in the first practice. Both drivers only made a handful of laps in final practice after the backup cars were prepared and it became obvious that both teams were way behind when they hit the track. Now I am sure they both Larson and Elliott could lean on the notes/setups of their teammates as today’s race approaches. Often that is what teams do when they have experienced some intense struggles.

However, I just don’t think that is going to be enough to overcome this afternoon. Pocono is a very balanced driven race track and it can be very difficult to get the setup balance to match what the driver wants. For Elliott, I never saw any speed out of the #9 car even before the incident in practice 1 and this team has been struggling to find speed. Likewise, Larson is having a nightmarish season and is flirting with the possibility of not making the Chase. I am convinced that this new package has hurt Larson as a driver and I am also convinced that this team has been a victim of Murphy’s Law. As a result, I am fading both Larson and Elliott today if I can find match-ups that make sense in terms of betting odds.

2019 Gander RV 400 Optimal Lineup

2019 Gander RV 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Denny Hamlin +1000 (1 unit)
Erik Jones +2200 (.75 unit) *early play
William Byron +1600 (.75 unit)
Clint Bowyer +2750 (.5 unit) *early play
Ryan Blaney +3500 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Kyle Busch +265 wins Gander RV 400
Chris Buescher +135 over Ricky Stenhouse
Risking 1 unit to win: +750

H2H Match-Ups

Denny Hamlin -130 over Joey Logano (2 units) *early play
Kevin Harvick +120 does not finish Top 3 (2 units)
Ryan Blaney +515 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Kurt Busch +400 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)