Gander RV 400 Early Preview
NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
The Monster Energy Cup Series returns to Pocono Raceway this weekend for the 2nd time this season. Back in June, Kyle Busch won the Pocono 400 earning his 2nd straight victory at the Tricky Triangle and 3rd career win over the last 4 events at Pocono. As we prepare for another stop at the Tricky Triangle, I wanted to take a moment to highlight all of this weekend’s events and also take the time to explain some of the differences we will see this weekend in the Gander RV 400 before the first bets of the weekend are placed.
Weekend Overview
All of NASCAR’s touring series will be in action this weekend. The Gander Outdoors Truck Series will join the Cup Series for racing at Pocono in the Gander RV 150 on Saturday. Surprisingly the preliminary entry list does not have any Cup Series drivers like we have seen in previous years. Therefore, the Gander RV 150 will feature all full-time and part-time Truck Series drivers. Interestingly among participants in the Gander RV 150, there are no prior Pocono winners in the field so we will have to keep a close eye on how things unfold once trucks hit the track on Friday. After the Truck Series concludes at Pocono, NASCAR will have a rare double header when the Xfinity Series takes center stage for the US Cellular 250 at Iowa.
Just like the Cup Series’ return to Pocono, the Xfinity Series will be making their 2nd stop at Iowa this season. Similar to Kyle Busch’s 2 straight victories at Pocono, Christopher Bell will enter this Saturday’s event with a 2 race winning streak at Iowa. Bell captured a victory in the CircuitCity.com 250 back in June at Iowa and also won the US Cellular 250 last July. Last week, Bell also scored his 5th victory of the season in Loudon which tied Cole Custer for the most in the Xfinity Series this season. So far this year, Bell has been the guy to beat on the short tracks which will likely be the narrative again this week. Bell has scored wins at Bristol, Dover, Iowa, and most recently at New Hampshire. Without any surprising threats on the entry list, Bell will once again be the favorite this week with Cole Custer lurking in the shadows as the #20 team’s biggest competitor.
Finally on Sunday, Cup Series teams and drivers will attempt to tackle the Tricky Triangle for the 2nd time this year. Kyle Busch has undoubtedly emerged as the guy to beat at Pocono over the last several races. However there were several drivers that were really strong back in June, including the likes of Clint Bowyer, Erik Jones, William Byron, Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliott, and Denny Hamlin who all posted 100 plus driver ratings. My warning this week, from a handicapping perspective, is to avoid putting too much stock in the results of June’s Pocono 400 and applying that performance towards bets this weekend.
2019 Gander RV 400 Preview
This week’s return to The Tricky Triangle will feature some changes to the racing surface at Pocono Raceway. Last week, track officials applied the PJ1 traction compound to all 3 corners to help widen the racing groove and improve competitiveness. Two lanes of the PJ1 traction compound were added in turns 1 and 3 while a single lane of the compound was added in tunnel turn (turn 2). This is the first time the traction compound has been used at Pocono Raceway and it will be interesting to see how it affects the racing performance along with the handling setups on the racecars.
Even though the traction compound has not been used at Pocono Raceway previously, we have seen the compound used frequently at other tracks around the NASCAR circuit. It’s impossible to understand just how different the racing surface will be this weekend because the compound seems to have different levels of impact on each surface where it is applied. One possibility is that grip is improved on the outside racing groove which could make passing even more difficult with this new horsepower package bringing even more importance to track position. I am personally concerned at how the traction compound will hold up over the course of the weekend. Before the Truck Series races on Saturday, the ARCA Menards Series will also be in action on Friday meaning there will a lot of laps laid down before Sunday’s main event. Therefore there is a good possibility that the some or the majority of the compound is eroded by Sunday and Pocono’s surface is too large to reapply the compound again before the Gander RV 400 if needed.
I think the biggest impact this traction compound could make is towards the handling of the cars. Temperatures are expected to be higher this weekend providing a slicker surface and the compound will likely have some type of impact on the setup balance. What we do know is that on the horsepower tracks, Joe Gibbs Racing and Team Penske have been the best performing teams. In fact, I would probably say that Team Penske has lost momentum and the Gibbs cars have stretched their performance edge. Fortunately, it seems that horsepower/aero advantages fluctuate more with this new package so perhaps we should see how cars look on Saturday before making any final conclusions. I would simply state that it is a safe bet to assume the JGR cars will be tough to beat on Sunday if their performance trends continue.
From a betting standpoint, Kyle Busch and Kevin Harvick have been the top two drivers at Pocono by a wide margin. I mentioned earlier Busch has won 3 of the last 4 races but he has also amassed a lucrative 133.9 driver rating over the last 5 races. Meanwhile, Kevin Harvick always seems to be a bridesmaid at Pocono. Harvick has posted 4 runner-up finishes in the last 10 starts and while he always runs well; Harvick has still never won at Pocono Raceway. Therefore I can advocate betting Harvick or Busch at early prices when they are released. I will be targeting value plays early and then look to see what can be learned in practices. I will be looking to see what type of early odds are assigned to guys like Erik Jones and Denny Hamlin. Both drivers have been running extremely well and have that JGR horsepower I spoke about previously. If those guys have some early value, they could be strong opening picks to secure some value heading into the weekend.
