2019 Gander RV 150 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander Outdoors Truck Series Betting Predictions
Saturday July 27th, 1:00PM (EST) at Pocono Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Tomorrow afternoon the Gander Outdoors Truck Series will step into the spotlight on Fox Sports 1 for the running of the Gander RV 150 at Pocono Raceway. Earlier today, Truck Series teams and drivers participated in two practice sessions. In those sessions, Kyle Busch Motorsports trucks topped the charts as Harrison Burton posted the fastest lap in the morning session followed by Todd Gilliland securing the fastest lap in Happy Hour. However, Austin Hill was the fast guy in qualifying this afternoon as he put the #16 truck on the pole with a blazing lap of 171.35mph. With all pre-race on-track activity in the books, we are ready to make our 2019 Gander RV 150 race picks for Pocono!

One of the relatively unusual aspects for tomorrow’s Gander RV 150 is that the entry list fails to provide any former Truck Series winners at Pocono Raceway. However, Kyle Busch Motorsports trucks have won the last 4 races at Pocono Raceway which will put some pressure on Harrison Burton, Todd Gilliland, and Christian Eckes as they look to carry the torch forward at the Tricky Triangle. Over the years, KBM teams have typically provided the fastest trucks in the series. Though I think the gap has narrowed this season, it still appears KBM’s horsepower is undeniable especially at a place like Pocono where you have these long straightaways that allow teams to flex their horsepower.

In Friday’s practices, I thought all of the KBM trucks showed good signs of speed. Harrison Burton ran more laps (27) than anyone in final practice and was solid throughout the entire session. Todd Gilliland had the top speed in final practice along with the best overall average speed. However, Gilliland only ran a handful of laps to help that average. Christian Eckes, in prestigious #51 truck, finished P6 on the board. Eckes posted the best 10 lap average of the 3 cars that ran at least 10 consecutive laps. However, Eckes did not have the speed that the other top drivers showed, at least from a consistency standpoint, which is probably a result of his limited experience in the series.

While I have given some attention to the KBM trucks speed going into Saturday, I want to be clear that I don’t believe anyone has a huge advantage ahead of Saturday’s green flag. Lap times were extremely close among the top drivers and I am having an extremely difficult time deciding who I believe will emerge at the front of the field tomorrow. From a handicapping point of view, we really have not seen the Truck Series race on a track similar to Pocono this year which adds to the uncertainty level. Speaking purely from lap times in practices, Brett Moffitt, Stewart Friesen, and Ross Chastain appeared to have the speed to challenge for a victory. Personally, I was really surprised to see the #45 truck produce the speed shown in practices. I thought Pocono would be a track where NIECE Motorsports would struggle but Chastain has looked really solid thus far.

Since there is a certain level of uncertainty going into Saturday combined with parity at the front of the field, I am approaching tomorrow’s race with a low risk strategy. I know that is not the most exciting announcement and I would much rather tell everyone that a certain driver is the perfect target tomorrow. However that is simply not the case and since this is sports betting; we have to be honest and smart with our handicapping notes. I feel like Brett Moffitt has the best overall truck ahead of Saturday’s green flag. However, there are a good amount of trucks that have shown solid speed including the likes of Friesen, Chastain, Burton, and you can even thrown in the pole sitter Austin Hill who has looked extremely strong all weekend. Furthermore, there are probably a few trucks that struggled in practices that will come to life after overnight changes. Therefore, I think we should be cautious in our approach tomorrow.

Drivers to Fade

As I write this preview, odds have not been posted after today’s on-track activities. However, I am looking forward to seeing odds because I think we may have some better betting opportunities in the form of match-ups. A few drivers that I am looking to fade outright include Johnny Sauter and Ben Rhodes. Sauter is more of a situational fade because he is usually paired against the top drivers and I just don’t think the #13 truck has the speed to stay upfront on Saturday. However, Rhodes is a complete fade as the #99 struggled in every way on Friday. The #99 had handling issues in the opening practice. After they got the handling issues squared away in final practice, they still lacked overall speed and it does not look like something that will be fixed with changes. Therefore if I can find some decent odds in match-ups against the #99, I will fade Rhodes with complete confidence.

2019 Draftkings Gander RV 150 Optimal Lineup

2019 Gander RV 150 Race Picks

*Final

Stewart Friesen +500 (1.25 units)
Harrison Burton +1400 (.75 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Austin Hill +150 over Ross Chastain *early play
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

Brett Moffitt +250 wins Gander RV 150
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

Ross Chastain +485 wins Gander RV 150
Team 2 – Open
Risking .75 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Harrison Burton -140 over Ben Rhodes (2 units)