2019 Ford Ecoboost 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Saturday November 16th, 3:47PM (EST) at Homestead-Miami Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Xfinity Series will get the opportunity to take center stage on Saturday as NASCAR looks to crown another series champion with the running of the Ford Ecoboost 300 at Homestead-Miami Speedway. Throughout the entire 2019 Xfinity Series season, the “Big 3” have justifiably garnered all of the attention with 20 combined wins between Christopher Bell (8), Cole Custer (7), and Tyler Reddick (5). Now the “Big 3” will have the opportunity to battle it out one final time with championship implications on the line. As we prepare for the Xfinity Series finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway, we take the time to provide our championship thoughts and our complete betting analysis with our 2019 Ford Ecoboost 300 race picks!

If we learned anything from tonight’s Truck Series finale, it is that nothing is guaranteed in motorsports. Despite not having a win all year, Matt Crafton’s won the Gander Outdoors Truck Series Championship with a 2nd place finish in tonight’s Ford Ecoboost 200. It was Crafton’s 3rd championship of his career but perhaps the most surprising considering the fact the #88 has rarely contended for victories this season. As we turn our attention to the Xfinity Series, I know everyone believes this will be a fight between the Bell, Custer, and Reddick. However, we cannot rule out Justin Allgaier who earned his championship bid with a victory last week at ISM Raceway. Though Allgaier has not shown the consistency throughout the season on a weekly basis, Crafton proved any prior shortcomings could be put to bed with one great performance. Can Justin Allgaier become the 2nd straight big underdog to win the championship this weekend?

From a handicapping angle, Allgaier is probably a much bigger underdog than Crafton’s perceived underdog status last night. Where Crafton and the #88 team consistently ran in the top 5 throughout the season, Allgaier has not been nearly as strong. In fact, the #7 team and the rest of JR. Motorsports have struggled to some degree on the 1.5 mile layouts. Allgaier has led just 16 laps all season on the 1.5 mile surfaces and we have not seen any observable evidence to expect anything significantly different going into Saturday’s race. When it comes to handicapping for Homestead, it’s always important to look at drivers/teams performances throughout the year on the low grip/high wear style tracks. Places like Atlanta and especially Chicagoland are really good comparisons. In those races, the Big 3 have thoroughly dominated the laps at the front of the field which should be the baseline for expectations again on Saturday.

Practice Observations

Mother Nature caused a lot of disturbance on Friday at Homestead. Rain cancelled both Cup Series practices. Luckily, the Xfinity Series did get some limited on-track time before rain started falling. There was 37 minutes of on-track time in the opening practice before rain started falling and cancelled the remaining scheduled activities including final practice. With limited practice time and the majority of teams only running a handful of laps, tomorrow’s race becomes slightly more unpredictable. Reddick and Bell finished 1-2 on the speed charts. Reddick posted the fastest lap of the session with a speed of 165.675mph.

Again because teams only ran a few laps, I am not sure if we have enough information to confidently conclude how teams are trending ahead of Saturday’s green flag. From the limited practice time, I would say Austin Cindric and Noah Gragson unloaded on a positive note. Both drivers displayed solid speed which may provide some slight underdog potential. Don’t be scared to pull the trigger on an underdog or two this weekend. Though this battle appears to be between the championship competitors, upsets can easily happen at a track that produces so much tire fall-off. One late race caution and new tires could change everything.

Handicapping the Championship 4

Reddick’s fast time in practice has to be a good sign for the #2 team considering what their driver was able to accomplish last year at Homestead. Reddick entered last year’s championship race as a big underdog but put together one of the best performances of the season. Reddick found speed up against the wall and drove the wheels off the car to score a surprising victory to earn the championship. As one of the best wheelmen in the series, Reddick will have the opportunity to showcase his talent again at a track that fits perfectly for his driving style.

Aside from Reddick, Christopher Bell probably has the most pure speed among the championship drivers. However, Bell has struggled at times on the tracks that produce heavy tire wear. Cole Custer on the other hand has thrived in these driving conditions. Two years ago, Custer earned his 1st Xfinity Series victory at Homestead by dominating the Ford Ecoboost 300 by leading 182 of 200 laps. At the time, the victory was rather surprising but Custer has continued to show his strength on similar layouts just as he did this year with a victory at Chicagoland. Despite finishing 2nd to Reddick last year in the Ford Ecoboost 300, Custer’s two starts at Homestead have produced an average driver rating of 144 which is simply incredible. As a result, I would put Custer ahead of Bell because of his tendency towards producing better long run speed on these surfaces. Therefore if we have to handicap the championship contenders, I am going Reddick, Custer, Bell, and Allgaier!

Betting and Fantasy Targets

With the level of uncertainty going into Saturday, we may have to be rather conservative with our betting targets. I know it is the last race weekend of the season but I also disdain overbetting when you are extremely confident in your selections. With that being said, I do expect Austin Cindric and Michael Annett will provide great value for both betting and fantasy purposes. Cindric is really turning into a decent driver and has shown solid quality results with top 6 finishes in 5 of his last 6 starts. Cindric has also run well on similar surfaces and has enough indicators to warrant some value. Another driver that has checked off a lot of positive indicators includes Michael Annett. Annett has not been given enough credit for his results this year which includes 19 Top 10 finishes. Annett is another driver that has performed really well on similar layouts and tomorrow’s race sets up as another excellent opportunity for the #1 team to exceed expectations.

In the realm of fantasy targets, I believe Michael Annett and Jeremy Clements are excellent mid-range drivers that will bring value to line-ups. When fostering fantasy line-ups, you always need to avoid bad luck with your selections. If we can avoid bad luck, Annett has not finished outside the top 15 since Daytona in July and Clements has top 15 certainty with top 10 upside. For an even deeper option, consider part-time Xfinity Series driver Alex Labbe who has finished 17th or betting in his last 5 starts.

*Betting note – Last week I brought a trend to light around the #89 car of Morgan Shepard that has recently been driven by Landon Cassill who has failed to finish all 8 prior races before Phoenix. The trend continued last week as Cassill failed to finish for the 9th consecutive time behind the #89 car despite posting really good qualifying results nearly every week. If you are able to find a betting match-up that has Cassill listed, fire up a maximum size fade with 100% confidence!

2019 Ford Ecoboost 300 Optimal Lineup

2019 Ford Ecoboost 300 Race Picks

*Final*

Justin Allgaier +1100 (.75 unit)
Chase Briscoe +2200 (.5 units) *early play
Austin Cindric +3300 (.5 unit) *early play
Brandon Jones +6600 (.25 unit)
Michael Annett +11000 (.25 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Cole Custer +185 wins Ford Ecoboost 300
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

Tyler Reddick +200 wins Ford Ecoboost 300
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-ups

Cole Custer -115 over Christopher Bell (3 units)