2019 Ford Ecoboost 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander Outdoors Truck Series Betting Predictions
Friday November 15th, 8:16PM (EST) at Homestead-Miami Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The final weekend of the racing season has arrived as NASCAR looks to crown 3 different champions at Homestead-Miami Speedway. The opening act for championship weekend will feature the Gander Outdoors Truck Series and the running of the Ford Ecoboost 200 later this evening. The battle for the championship will be decided between Stewart Friesen, Ross Chastain, Matt Crafton, and defending series champion Brett Moffitt. With all eyes on the championship drivers this weekend, we take the time to discuss if there may be some potential sleepers lurking from the non-championship competitors. After two practices earlier this morning, we are ready to provide our final Truck Series preview of the season with our 2019 Ford Ecoboost 200 race picks!

I find it an absolute tragedy that this will be the last season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway for the foreseeable future. Next year, NASCAR will conclude the season at ISM Raceway in Phoenix which could be a disaster judging by last week’s uneventful races. I have always loved Homestead-Miami Speedway because it is the perfect track that provides a combination of everything. The 1.5 mile speedway has multiple-grooves including a fast line right around the very top of the track which requires a degree of skill to run consistently. The track surface is aged and lacks grip which produces heavy tire wear and demands drivers to be on top of their game. In order to get the job done at Homestead, it takes a complete effort from both driver and team which will be the case throughout the weekend.

Unfortunately, NASCAR only visits Homestead once a year which does not give us a lot of data to review in the realm of track performance. The lack of driver experience at Homestead can be seen throughout the majority of the Truck and Xfinity Series drivers participating this weekend. As a result, we will be forced to utilize practice results from earlier today, reflect on driver strengths on low grip surfaces, and ultimately combine those factors with current performance to formulate our betting targets for this evening’s Ford Ecoboost 200. Brett Moffitt has probably been the best driver overall this year on low-grip race tracks with a win at Chicagoland and a really impressive run at Atlanta earlier this year. However, both Stewart Friesen and Ross Chastain are really good at driving on low-grip tracks as well which elevates their value. Friesen scored his 2nd win of the season last week at Phoenix and could be a sleeper pick among the championship 4.

Practice Observations

Stewart Friesen actually posted the fastest time in Happy Hour with a lap of 165.320mph. However, Friesen’s final lap in Happy Hour was a mock qualifying run which is not the best indicator of race trim speed. Judging by both practices earlier, I am not sure if we really know who the favorite will be tonight. Truck Series’ drivers and teams only ran a handful of consecutive laps meaning we never really got a great opportunity to gauge long run speed. My personal observations were that Ross Chastain was the fastest truck among the favorites. However, the favorites do not look overly dominant by any stretch of the imagination. Unlike the Cup Series race where the champion will likely have to win the race on Sunday, I don’t believe that will be the case this evening.

Guys like Sheldon Creed, Christian Eckes, and Tyler Ankrum all showed really good speed in both practices earlier today. Stewart Friesen and Grant Enfinger were also both pretty solid on the stopwatch as well. Both Friesen and Enfinger were pretty strong in the 2018 Ford Ecoboost 200 at Homestead. I consider both drivers really good on low grip tracks which elevates their value this evening. In terms of negative practice observations, I also noticed that both Harrison Burton and Ben Rhodes struggled pretty significantly. Rhodes appeared to be well off the pace (update* #99 was on old tires in final practice) as his disappointing season continues. Burton has been running better in recent weeks and has performed well on the 1.5 mile tracks this season. I have more confidence that Burton and the #18 truck with KBM can turn things around before tonight’s green flag but I do not have that same confidence for the #99 team with Ben Rhodes.

Betting and Fantasy Targets

Qualifying for tonight’s Ford Ecoboost 200 will take place at 4:35PM (EST) this afternoon, meaning we cannot officially lock-in any fantasy line-ups until we have had a chance to observe qualifying results. With that being said, Tyler Ankrum will be one of my favorite fantasy and H2H match-up targets tonight based on my observations in practice. I thought Ankrum had speed capable of contending at the front of the field and he has a surprise win at another 1.5 mile track in Kentucky this year. I am not sure if Ankrum has another rabbit is his hat this evening but he definitely has a lot of speed in the #17 truck that will be worth targeting in betting circumstances.

I also expect Sheldon Creed will provide similar value among the intermediate drivers that will have the potential to run upfront. I think it is actually harder to predict the best targets among the favorites this evening as compared to finding value with the cheaper options. I personally think Ross Chastain is the best driver for the circumstances this evening. However, Friesen has momentum and Moffitt has always performed well at Homestead along with these types of surfaces. If you are looking for a flyer option in the fantasy realm, consider Dylan Lupton in the #5 truck. Lupton is more-known for his Xfinity Series appearances but will be making his 7th Truck Series start of the season this evening. Lupton has performed best on the 1.5 mile surfaces finishing top 10 in 3 of his 3 starts on 1.5 mile tracks. If we can get similar results again this evening, Lupton provides some value as a potential low-owned option.

2019 Ford Ecoboost 200 Optimal Lineup

*TBA after qualifying*

2019 Ford Ecoboost 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Ross Chastain +375 (1.5 units)
Grant Enfinger +2000 (.5 unit)
Ben Rhodes +2000 (.5 units) *early play
Sheldon Creed +3000 (.5 unit) *early play
Tyler Ankrum +3300 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Tyler Ankrum +115 over Todd Gilliland
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1.25 units to win: TBD