2019 Federated Auto Parts 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Predictions
Saturday September 21st, 7:44PM (EST) at Richmond Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Monster Energy Cup Series returns to the Saturday night spotlight this weekend for the Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond Raceway. Tonight’s event marks the 2nd race in the Chase following Martin Truex’s opening win last week in Las Vegas. Not only has Truex secured his spot into the Round of 12 but the #19 team returns to Richmond as the defending winner based on their victory in the Toyota Owners 400 back in April. As Truex looks to remain hot, there are several competitors lurking within striking distance that promises to intensify Saturday night’s racing. We discuss our expectations and layout our betting narrative with our 2019 Federated Auto Parts 400 race picks!

If you have not noticed by now, betting odds have been saturated for the last couple of weeks. In all honesty, betting odds normally lose value during the playoffs because of the high frequency of race winners that are derived from playoff drivers. So if you are waiting for odds to get better each week, I would not count on that happening. Instead, we just have to be extremely sharp with our predictions and limit our overall risk. In last night’s Xfinity Series event, I had just 1 unit of total risk on 3 drivers for the victory and had 2 parlay starters among the favorites. I was lucky enough to hit my only H2H match-up for 2 units meaning the entire race was a wash for the pending parlay.

Why am I telling you this? Because money management is so important. It would have been easy to throw away extra risk last night and make things more ‘exciting’ for my subscribers. Unfortunately, smart betting is not always exciting and sometimes we must stay a bit conservative. From a strategy standpoint, I will likely be conservative again with my win bets tonight because so many drivers are receiving “favorite” style betting odds. However, the good news is that Richmond Raceway is a good handicapping race track because of the tire wear and the fact this ¾ mile speedway is a ‘drivers track’ that trends in the narrative of performance. Therefore we will look to exploit a few match-ups and attempt to stay sharp with our limited risk on futures.

Richmond track history – driver trends

I mentioned above that performance trends tend to hold true at Richmond. Unlike other tracks that may simply require on circumstance or single race performance, Richmond typically trends in the direction of driver performance because driver input at the steering wheel is often the reason for success at Richmond. A few key historical facts include the past winners at Richmond which are ranked in the following order: Kyle Busch (6), Denny Hamlin (3), Kevin Harvick (3), Jimmie Johnson (3), Joey Logano (2), Kurt Busch (2), Clint Bowyer (2), Kyle Larson (1), Ryan Newman (1), Brad Keselowski (1), and most recently Martin Truex (1). It is also important to note that Jimmie Johnson’s last Richmond win dates back to 2008 so the 3 victories may be a tad misleading.

In recent races at Richmond, 5 drivers have produced a 100 plus driver rating over the last 5 races. Martin Truex (121.0), Kevin Harvick (112.4), Joey Logano (110.5), Brad Keselowski (108.9), and Kyle Busch (107.3). Even though Kyle Busch ranks 5th among the top 5 favorites, Rowdy has won 2 of the last 3 races at Richmond. However the loop data statistics above portray a solid picture of the top drivers at Richmond on a consistent basis because a 100 plus rating is not an easy figure to produce. Despite capturing his 1st short track win of his career back in April, Martin Truex has produced the most laps led (668) and fast laps (203) among all active drivers of the last 5 races which is likely accredited to Truex and Cole Pearn’s dynamic setups that yield extraordinary long run speed.

2019 Federated Auto Parts 400 practice observations

Monster Energy Cup Series’ teams participated in two practices on Friday. Martin Truex paced the field in Happy Hour with a lap of 121.885mph. From an analytical standpoint, I think we have made a strong case for Truex with the loop data statistics and current momentum supports the narrative on the heels of last week’s win at Vegas. Aside from Truex, I believe attention should be given to all the Joe Gibbs Racing cars. Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Erik Jones, and Martin Truex were all extremely strong in practices. In Happy Hour, Denny Hamlin actually led all drivers in nearly every category including 5/10/15/20/25 lap averages. While Hamlin seemed to be the best of everyone, Busch and Truex still had race winning speed as well.

In terms of observations, I would also point out that both Kevin Harvick and Brad Keselowski looked fairly impressive as well. I believe that notion bodes better for the #4 team. Keselowski and the #2 team have not exactly shown race winning speed in recent weeks. The #2 team did a nice job of capitalizing last week but they were never a real threat for the victory. However, Harvick’s team has started hitting their best run of the season. The #4 has been one of the fastest cars in the field in the last several weeks and they have shown every indication they will be able to contend again once the green flag waves.

Betting and fantasy sleepers

Like I said earlier, it is going to be difficult to narrow down the perfect ‘favorite’ to target in tonight’s race. In today’s realm of track position, anything can happen among the top guys and we have legitimately 5-6 cars that looked extremely tough in practices. Our margins for making profits in tonight’s event could easily come down to betting match-ups and finding overlooked value. One of the guys that I believe will overachieve tonight includes the #6 of Ryan Newman. We have reached the playoffs which means the time of the year where Newman typically maximizes his finishes just as we saw last week with a 10th place finish at Vegas. Newman has always run well at Richmond and he showed a lot of speed in practices on Friday. At a bull ring style short track where there is enormous tire wear, I would bet on Ryan Newman regardless of practice observations but Friday’s speed in Happy Hour only makes the argument even stronger for the #6 car.

Another driver that is poised to impress tonight includes the #95 of Matt Dibenedetto. For a couple of weeks, Dibenedetto was finishing inside the Top 10 nearly every week. After a few disappointing finishes at Indianapolis and Las Vegas, I think it is about time to jump back on board with the #95. I mentioned earlier that the JGR cars were extremely impressive in practices and that includes the #95 team that has an alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing. Dibenedetto showed terrific speed in practices on Friday and while this race will be top heavy in terms of the top talents at the front of the field; Dibenedetto has the speed to flirt with a top 10 finish if things go his way.

Drivers to fade

I have 2 drivers that I am targeting heavily for fades later this evening which include Ryan Blaney and Clint Bowyer. In both practices, Ryan Blaney was among the best cars consistently at the top of the charts in nearly every category. However, I am not buying the practice hype and believe this is a situation where we should pivot back to those driver trends mentioned earlier.

For starters, Blaney has never performed well at the tracks with high tire wear. At venues like Atlanta, Chicagoland, and Darlington, Blaney has finished in the Top 10 in just 2 out of his 13 career starts. I mention tracks like Atlanta, Chicagoland, and Darlington first because Blaney has historically performed best on 1.5 mile type layouts (Darlington 1.36). Yet, Blaney is still just 2 for 13 in career top 10 at those venues that yield heavy tire wear. At Richmond, Blaney has been even worse. In 7 career starts, Blaney’s best finish is 19th and he has posted a miserable 58.7 average driver rating during those starts. Needless to say after a strong showing on Friday, this is the perfect situation to fade the driver of the #12.

Meanwhile, Clint Bowyer is another drive listed high on my fade list. My reasons for promoting a fade on Bowyer are not as detailed. I simply don’t like the current form of the #14 team and I also do not believe they have the long run speed to stay at the front of the field. After a 5th place qualifying effort on Friday, there will be plenty of opportunities to fade Bowyer against reasonable drivers with higher upside!

Draftkings 2019 Federated Auto Parts 400 Fantasy Optimal Lineup

2019 Federated Auto Parts 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Kevin Harvick +530 (2 units)
Chase Elliott +1400 (.75 unit)
Kyle Larson +2750 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Christopher Bell +100 wins Go Bowling 250 (win)
Martin Truex/Denny Hamlin +280 wins Federated Auto Parts 400
Risking 1.5 units to win: +990

Kyle Busch +345 wins Federated Auto Parts 400
Ryan Newman +145 over Ryan Blaney
Risking 1 unit to win: +990

H2H Match-Ups

Chase Elliott -115 over Erik Jones (3 units)
Martin Truex -115 over Denny Hamlin (2 units) *early play
Kyle Larson -110 over Clint Bowyer (2 units)
Ryan Newman +145 over Ryan Blaney (2 units)
Austin Dillon +225 wins Group E (Stenhouse, DiBenedetto, Buescher) (1 unit)