2019 Drydene 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday October 6th, 2:45PM (EST) at Dover International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Racing at the Monster Mile continues on Sunday when the Monster Energy Cup Series steps into the spotlight for the running of the Drydene 400 to kick off the Round of 12 at Dover International Speedway. Earlier today, Denny Hamlin won the pole for the Drydene 400 while shattering the track record with a lap of 166.984mph. Fast speeds and intense racing conditions were on full display in today’s Xfinity Series race which led to chaos from the opening lap to the checkered flag. With faster speeds and playoff implications building in the Cup Series, we should expect another wild race on Sunday. As we prepare for a full afternoon at the Monster Mile, we take this time to provide our betting analysis and provide our 2019 Drydene 400 race picks!

To start off with a refresher, Dover International Speedway is 1 of just 2 concrete surfaces at the Cup Series level. The other concrete surface resides at Bristol Motor Speedway. As a result, tire wear remains fairly neutral with lap times falling off by just several tenths from the start to the end of green flag runs. However that does not mean that long run speed is not important. In reality, long run speed is very important at Dover because the track typically produces long green flag runs throughout the race. Another important factor to note surrounds track position. I understand that track position is important everywhere in the modern age of NASCAR but it is extremely important at Dover. The narrow groove makes passing difficult and with the extremely fast speeds; drivers can lose a lot of ground with every added second when attempting to pass competitors. Therefore, expect track position and good pit stops to be critical towards deciding the winner of this race!

Practice Observations

Before we jump into practice observations, keep in mind that this concrete surface at Dover is rather mysterious. The track changes throughout races and though crew chiefs have a baseline of expectations in their notebooks; the track can be difficult to predict exactly how it will react as rubber builds into the surface and how it will react to weather changes. Back in May, we put heavy focus towards track history/performance trends which helped us cash with Martin Truex Jr at 8-1 odds. However, Truex was not overly dominate going into that race in terms of practice observations. The #19 car ranked 8th in 20 lap averages in Happy Hour back in May and frankly did not appear to be one of the “favorites” going into the weekend. I just knew the track would change and that Cole Pearn along with the rest of the #19 team were really hitting on long run speed heading into that weekend which helped us nail that prediction. The reason I bring this up is simple. Practice speeds are not everything at Dover and should only be a small part of the handicapping equation this week.

In terms of raw practice observations, it may surprise folks that Jimmie Johnson was among the best cars in Friday’s practices. In Happy Hour, Johnson had the best overall average lap time and showed long run speed that was unwavering. Now I have been Johnson’s biggest critic throughout 2019 and have made a ton of profit by fading the #48 this season. However, this team has found some speed in recent weeks and is starting to run better. Let us also not forget, Johnson is a ridiculous 11-time winner at the Monster Mile, which is the most all-time. I don’t believe that translates into Johnson’s winless streak ending on Sunday but I think we may need to be more cautious before continuing to fade Johnson moving forward. A few more popular options that emerged as potential favorites included the likes of Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, and Kyle Larson. Harvick was probably the best of the group with really strong signs of speed and longevity. Meanwhile, Larson and Logano both flexed their muscles with speed that is capable of contending for a victory. It’s also worth noting that Larson missed the pole by just .03 seconds in qualifying earlier today so it appears the #42 has some serious speed.

A few other names that also had strong practices included pole sitter Denny Hamlin, William Byron, and Daniel Suarez. Hamlin has never won at the Monster Mile but stated he felt this was his best car that the #11 team has ever had. William Byron continues his 2nd half surgence with sneaky fast lap times. Meanwhile, Daniel Suarez may be one of those guys that everyone needs to remember for H2H and fantasy purposes. Dover just happens to be Suarez’s best track with an average finish of 7.6 which is 3rd best among active drivers. In 5 career starts, Suarez has never finished worse than 11th and has shown his talents of getting around the Monster Mile once again this weekend.

Betting and Fantasy Targets

I find Sunday’s Drydene 400 a bit puzzling. Some of the fastest guys in practice are not the best betting targets. For example, Kyle Larson is currently in the midst of the longest winless streak of his career. The same can be said for Jimmie Johnson. Denny Hamlin has never won at the Monster Mile and I am not sure if I can trust the likes of Joey Logano with his inconsistent performance in recent weeks. Needless to say, this weekend’s practice targets could be considered ‘false positives’ if we keep things into perspective. Now I am not saying that none of those drivers will contend for victory on Sunday. I am simply saying they are not the most reliable betting targets for Sunday’s Drydene 400.

The one guy that I can trust entering Sunday is the driver of the #4 in Kevin Harvick. Not only has Harvick contended for wins for the last several weeks but he also leads all drivers with a lucrative 121.5 average driver rating at Dover over the last 5 races. Harvick is a two-time winner at Dover and is peaking at the right time. In terms of loop data and average ratings, Kyle Larson is also high on that list. Larson’s average rating of 110.1 ranks 4th among active drivers behind Harvick, Truex, and Chase Elliott. I personally thought the #42 looked great in both practices mainly from a handling perspective. Forget the lap times, the #42 was able to hug the bottom of the track which is the same formula that Jimmie Johnson used throughout his 11 wins at the Monster Mile. Therefore, Larson remains a legitimate threat for Sunday.

In terms of fantasy and betting targets that are not among your top favorites, I really like Daniel Suarez and Alex Bowman as sharp betting picks. Now I will say Bowman might be a risky play after troubles with both Austin Dillon and Bubba Wallace in recent weeks. Payback is a real threat this weekend. If that does not happen, I think the #88 is going to be really good. Meanwhile, I alluded to Daniel Suarez earlier and his career numbers at the Monster Mile. Suarez remains a very solid betting option that could provide top 10 upside yet again. If you are looking for a really deep fantasy option, Matt Tift continues to impress with his equipment after a strong run at the ROVAL. Tift is usually a good fantasy option at tracks where equipment does not present an overbearing advantage. Unfortunately, Tift qualified really well which limits his fantasy value. Another driver I will mention is Daniel Hemric for fantasy purposes. Hemric is at his lowest price of the season at just $5,900 on DraftKings. Despite a few tough weeks, Hemric holds a ton of value from the 31st starting position and is finally cheap enough to target with confidence.

Drivers to Fade

If you saw my Xfinity Series preview yesterday, I made the statement that there are not many true “fades” at Dover or guys that I am willing to fade at all costs. Remember this track changes frequently and track position will be just as important as having a fast car. For those reasons, H2H match-ups are tricky. Fortunately I escaped bad luck in the Drive Sober 200 by capturing all 3 H2H wins and I will try to exploit the most probabilistic H2H plays again on Sunday.

The guys that I believe are likely to be overvalued include Martin Truex Jr and Kyle Busch among the favorites. For whatever reason, the #18 team is struggling. They have failed to provide speed and simply do not have a ton of confidence at the moment. Busch was the worst qualifier of all Chase contenders on Sunday and he has not looked great in both practices either. Meanwhile, Martin Truex Jr may be a rather surprise fade consideration. Truex has been red hot in recent weeks with two wins and a 5th place finish through the opening round of the Chase. Following the win in May, I feel Truex will be highly sought in both betting and fantasy line-ups. However, I just don’t believe Truex had the handling or raw speed that will keep him close enough to the front to contend for victory. Obviously this is a very bold prediction based on Truex’s performance in recent weeks but I just don’t see the winning speed in the #19 car this week.

For deeper in the field, Kurt Busch and Paul Menard are a couple of names that I was least impressed with in practices. I personally really like the idea of fading Menard. The #21 has been running pretty well in recent weeks but Dover simply is not one of Menard’s better tracks. In 24 career starts, Menard has just 3 top 10 finishes and has finished outside the top 15 in each of his last 6 starts. Therefore, I feel like the #21 is a better fade option for Sunday. Likewise, I am also considering fading the #1 team. The #1 team has failed to crack the top 15 in the last 4 races. While some of those finishes were a result of bad luck, the speed has not exactly prevented the elder Busch from avoiding trouble. Busch has complained significantly about the handling of the Chip Ganassi Racing cars in recent weeks and that is a component that cannot be avoided at a track like Dover.

Draftkings 2019 Drydene 400 Fantasy Optimal Lineup

2019 Drydene 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Denny Hamlin +1100 (1 unit)
Joey Logano +1320 (.75 unit)
Brad Keselowski +1320 (.75 unit) *early play
Alex Bowman +2200 (.5 unit)
Jimmie Johnson +2750 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Cole Custer +190 wins Drive Sober 200 (win)
Martin Truex/Kyle Larson +250 wins Drydene 400
Risking 1 unit to win: +915

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Matt Tift -120 over Corey LaJoie (2 units)
Daniel Suarez +120 over Kurt Busch (2 units)
Daniel Suarez +750 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit) *courtesy of Bovada
Clint Bowyer +310 wins Group C (Jones, Blaney, and Ku. Busch) (1 unit)