2019 Drive Sober 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Saturday October 5th, 3:15PM (EST) at Dover International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The first elimination race in the 2019 Xfinity Series playoffs will take place on Saturday at Dover International Speedway with the running of the Drive Sober 200. Currently, 12 drivers are alive in the championship hunt but that number will be slimmed to just 8 drivers after 200 miles at the Monster Mile. Among the Chase contenders, Christopher Bell enters Saturday’s event as the overall favorite after capturing the last 2 wins at Dover including the Allied Steel Buildings 200 in May. While Bell certainly deserves the position as the overall favorite on Saturday, we believe there are sharper betting options that are poised to bring profit potential. We discuss our expectations and provide our 2019 Drive Sober 200 race picks for Dover!

All on-track preparation for both Xfinity and Cup Series races took place on Friday with two different practice sessions for both series. In the early Xfinity Series practice, Chase Briscoe posted the fastest lap over Christopher Bell with a speed of 152.394mph. In final practice, Cole Custer took home the fastest time with a lap of 151.292mph. Personally, Custer is the guy that has been on my radar all week. I took Custer over Reddick in an early H2H match-up that was sent out via our email distribution because he is the most likely candidate to dethrone Christopher Bell at the front of the field. Despite Bell winning the last 2 events at Dover, Cole Custer has been equally dominate in terms of laps led and fastest laps posted. In fact back in May, Custer dominated the event by leading 155 of 200 laps before settling for a 4th place finish and that was one of the main reasons I considered Custer a strong threat as the week began.

Practice Observations

In final practice, I believe Custer and the #00 team strengthened that argument. Custer led all drivers in 5, 10, 15, and 20 lap averages. To put things into perspective, Custer’s 20 lap average of 148.795mph would have ranked 15th in single lap fastest times and beat all but 5 drivers best 5 lap average speeds. The difference between Custer’s 10 lap average and 20 lap average was separated by just 1mph on average (149.795mph) which shows extremely strong indicators towards prominent long run speed. Even in a rather short 200 mile race, it is not uncommon to see long green flag runs at Dover, especially during the final stage. Therefore, long run speed is very important. To be clear, Dover’s concrete surface does not provoke significant fall off in lap times. However, it does provide significantly more than the #00 team showed in practice which makes me believe Custer should be considered the sharp favorite ahead of Saturday’s green flag.

From a competitive standpoint, Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick should be expected to be legitimate contenders on Saturday as well. I mentioned Bell’s success at Dover and it should be noted that he has been the best driver in the series throughout 2019 on the short tracks. Meanwhile, Tyler Reddick continues to show that he is a threat on a weekly basis and is coming off his career best Dover finish (3rd) back in May. Nobody should discredit either driver’s chances on Saturday. However if we are continuing to speak directly to practice observations, Justin Allgaier and Chase Briscoe emerged as potential contenders in Happy Hour.

The practice king Allgaier was 2nd to Custer in 5 and 10 lap averages. I have said on multiple occasions that Allgaier routinely fails to backup practice speed once the green flag drops and I was also discouraged in his lap times after 12-13 laps in final practice. Instead, I though Chase Briscoe was probably the 2nd best car in practice in terms of long run speed. Briscoe was 2nd to Cole Custer in 15 and 20 lap averages. Briscoe seemed to have one of the best long run speed cars and is trending in the right direction in terms of performance. If you are considering backing a driver in terms of win or H2H bets, it’s always encouraging to see promising trends. Briscoe has finished inside the top 10 in 11 of the last 12 races and we should not forget his short track win at Iowa. I’m not sure if Briscoe is capable of another underdog victory this week but I do expect the #98 to hang around the top 5 all afternoon.

Betting and Fantasy Targets

Outside of the drivers that could contend for the victory, there are several other drivers that could easily impress in terms of performance on Saturday. Though Dover has not produced many upsets over the years, it is a track where track position pays off as a result of insignificant tire wear. If a driver can gain a few spots on pit road or take advantage of a late race restart, they will have an opportunity to hold on for a solid finish in the closing laps. A few drivers that I believe are poised to exceed expectations include the likes of Harrison Burton, Zane Smith, and Justin Haley among your intermediate range drivers. Justin Haley had one of his best practices in many weeks and is in a bounce back position after subpar performances in 3 straight weeks.

Meanwhile, Zane Smith and Harrison Burton are in similar situations where they are trying to make the most of their part-time opportunities. Burton continues to produce solid results with each Xfinity Series start and has the luxury of piloting the #18 car which is always strong. Meanwhile, Zane Smith has equal upside despite being the less popular option. Smith has finished inside the top 10 in 5 of his last 6 starts in the Xfinity Series this season and appears to be getting better with each appearance. Smith had solid lap times in practice and Dover provides a rare opportunity where Smith will not be visiting a track for the first time. After a 9th place finish in May, Smith could improve on that mark on Saturday.

While I provided a few intermediate options above, I still believe Cole Custer and Chase Briscoe are strong betting targets for match-up and fantasy purposes. Briscoe is a great pivot from the top favorites that could yield similar results. Meanwhile, I really believe Custer could dominate this race yet again if he gets out front early. If you are looking for long shot flier options, Dillon Bassett and Josh Williams should be monitored closely. Bassett posted his best career finish (13th) back at Richmond in just his 4th career start. The driver of the #90 posted solid lap times in practices and has posted 50 point outings in 2 of his 4 career fantasy starts. If the equipment holds up and the #90 does not saturate his value with an outstanding qualifying run, Bassett should hold a lot of value. Likewise, Josh Williams has been one of the most consistent low-tier fantasy producers in the last several weeks. Averaging nearly 30 fantasy points over the last 5 races, Williams has been flirting with top 20 finishes nearly every week and should have that same upside at Dover on Saturday.

Drivers to Fade

I am always honest with my previews so I want to clearly state that I don’t have any hardcore “fades” for Saturday’s race. Unlike most weeks where I have a few drivers I am willing to fade at all costs, that is not the case for Saturday’s Drive Sober 200. Instead, I am just going to list a few drivers that I would label as “overvalued.” Tyler Reddick is probably the least probabilistic threat of all the favorites and had a rather mediocre afternoon in practices on Friday. Not to mention, Dover is not really the type of track that favors Reddick’s driving style. John Hunter Nemechek’s performance has taken a hard step backwards throughout the 2nd half of the season. John Hunter has failed to crack the top 10 in 10 of the last 14 races and the #23 was not impressive in either practice on Friday. Lastly, another driver that I would avoid at all costs includes the #19 of Brandon Jones. Jones has produced top 10 results in his last 3 Dover starts but the lap times were not impressive in Friday’s practices. Now there is time to make better adjustments to get the #19 more competitive; however I would not bet on the #19 continuing their top 10 streak at the Monster Mile unless they make serious improvements.

Draftkings 2019 Drive Sober 200 Fantasy Optimal Lineup

2019 Drive Sober 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Chase Briscoe +900 (1 unit)
Austin Cindric +2200 (.5 unit) *early play
Harrison Burton +6600 (.25 unit) *early play
Zane Smith +11000 (.25 unit) *early play

Two Team Parlays

Cole Custer +190 wins Drive Sober 200
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Cole Custer -140 over Tyler Reddick (2 units) *early play
Justin Haley -120 over John Hunter Nemechek (2 units)
Zane Smith -130 over Brandon Jones (2 units)