2019 Dirt Derby 150 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander Outdoors Truck Series Betting Predictions
Thursday August 1st, 9:06PM (EST) at Eldora Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

One of the most exciting races of the season will take place tomorrow night when the Gander Outdoors Truck Series makes their annual return to Eldora Speedway for the Dirt Derby 150. For the first time in the history of this event, we will not have any Cup Series drivers participating for an infamous victory on the dirt. However Chase Briscoe returns tomorrow night, as he steps down from his Xfinity Series seat, to defend his 2018 Dirt Derby 150 title and seeks to become the first 2-time winner at Eldora Speedway. Briscoe is currently listed as the favorite for tomorrow night’s race but favorites have failed to win every race at Eldora. Can Briscoe end that streak or should our eyes be on a few other competitors? Find out our thoughts and more as we provide our 2019 Dirt Derby 150 race picks!

As I write this preview, practices just concluded at Eldora Speedway. We need to mention practices with some extra importance because the lineup for tomorrow night’s qualifying/heat races is based upon tonights combined practice speeds. Luckily things should not be too confusing because practice speeds were overall much faster in the opening session which means the likes Chase Briscoe, Matt Crafton, Brett Moffitt, Stewart Friesen, and Sheldon Creed will start P1 in their relative heat races after taking the top 5 spots in practice. As we have seen in year’s past, starting P1 in the qualifying races provide a huge advantage because drivers simply have to stay upfront for a small amount of laps to secure a top starting position. To add significance to starting position; the last 5 winners at Eldora have started in the top 7 positions.

Before I provide my opinions on the drivers poised for victory, let me make a few quick comments related to this race. In the first 1-2 races at Eldora, I believe a lot of people (including myself) were looking for drivers with dirt backgrounds who were poised for this type of racing. Racing on dirt can throw some guys for a big loop but we have also seen some drivers adapt pretty well at the same time. I don’t want to discourage the advantage of having a background on dirt. There is still an element of truth to that handicapping angle. Just look at how well Chase Briscoe and Stewart Friesen have performed at this race in previous years for example. However dirt experience is not a requirement for success in this race as Matt Crafton proved with his victory in 2017. Moreso especially in recent years, we have seen the best drivers and teams emerge at the front of the field at Eldora. Therefore, my picks will not necessarily be driven from experience but more towards the better drivers in the field that are trending in the right direction following practices this evening.

Drivers to Target

Chase Briscoe and Stewart Friesen were the favorites before tonight’s on-track activities commenced and I believe they strengthened that argument in both sessions. Briscoe led the opening session with Friesen in P4. In the final session, Friesen was fastest and Briscoe was 2nd in fastest speed. Just to be clear, they both posted several laps that were faster than the 3rd, 4th, and 5th place trucks in final practice. Both Friesen and Briscoe showed consistent speed that was extremely impressive based upon the lap times of the competition. For that reason, I think it would be smart to find ways for those drivers to be on your lineup. Due to the fact Friesen has never won and often seems to find ways to lose races, I could advocate taking a chance of leaving the #52 off betting lineups just to save ROI potential. However, I must admit both trucks were extremely fast.

Aside from the top two trucks, I think we hit excellent value with Brett Moffitt with our early plays at +2200. Moffitt looks to have a truck capable of contending. Likewise, I would be lying if I did not throw Matt Crafton into that upper echelon of drivers. I absolutely hate betting on Crafton but he has shown really good lap times/consistency in each practice. Crafton has performed well in this race the last 2 years so he may have found some confidence in Eldora because the #88 time likely had their best practices of the year. If you want a few additional names to consider, Todd Gilliland and Grant Enfinger should be guys worth consideration. Enfinger has performed really well at Eldora each year and never shows the top notch practice speeds. Meanwhile, Gilliland is a live dark horse that has enough short track experience that plays into his skillset. Perhaps Ben Rhodes deserves some consideration but I simply cannot feel confident in the #99 based on their 2019 performance overall.

Drivers to Fade

The dirt race at Eldora typically provides a lot of chaos and attrition. For that reason, I don’t tend to bet on heavy favorites and keep the betting size of my match-ups relatively moderate. I believe betting on underdogs makes more sense in this type of race but as we all know; things change once odds are released. Once odds are re-posted, I will be looking for opportunities to fade Tyler Ankrum and Austin Hill. Both Ankrum and Hill were well off the pace this afternoon in practices. In fact, I would label Ankrum’s lap speeds as awful compared to what we have seen out of the rookie in the last few weeks. I did a little research and do not believe Ankrum has any dirt experience which may be the reason he has struggled so much thus far. Therefore if I can find match-ups fading Ankrum that are not heavy chalk, I will fade with full confidence.

2019 Dirt Derby 150 Optimal Lineup

For Draftkings, drivers will not earn any points for their performance in the qualifying races. Only main event actions will count towards fantasy points. Unfortunately, we will not even know the starting lineup until the qualifying races conclude which will leave us a pretty tight window before the conclusion of the qualifying races and the start of the main event. I believe we definitely need to see the starting lineup before we can provide an optimal lineup so I will attempt to update our optimal lineup shortly before the green flag.

In the interim, I believe I covered most of my thoughts on the favorites above. If you are looking for some fantasy sleepers, I think Carson Hocevar is a great flier at just $5,500. We have seen Hocevar race pretty well in the ARCA Series and typically keeps the nose clean. Todd Gilliland may actually provide the most value as a top tier driver at just $8,500. Meanwhile dark horses like Kyle Strickler and Mike Marlar likely have some upside with low exposure. Ultimately, we just need to see the starting positions to determine overall value so check back closer to the green flag.

2019 Dirt Derby 150 Race Picks

*Betting note – It may be important to get the majority of your bets in prior to the qualifying races. Some books have not reposted odds following qualifying races in previous years. Therefore, be prepared if that happens again.

*Final*

*Odds never posted after qualifying races. All wagers prior to qualifying races will be official.

Todd Gilliland +1550 (.75 unit)
Sheldon Creed +2000 (.5 unit) *early play
Brett Moffitt +2200 (.5 unit) *early play
Ross Chastain +3800 (.5 unit) *early play

Two Team Parlays

Grant Enfinger +160 over Stewart Friesen
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Sheldon Creed -120 over Kyle Strickler (2 units) *early play
Mike Marlar -140 over Tyler Ankrum (2 units)