2019 Desert Diamond West Valley Casino 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Saturday November 9th, 3:45PM (EST) at ISM Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Throughout the 2019 campaign, the major continuous story line in the Xfinity Series has surrounded the “Big 3” surrounding Christopher Bell, Cole Custer, and Tyler Reddick. The Big 3 have combined for 20 victories this season marking one of the most dominant seasons in NASCAR history by a small group of series regulars. However, Christopher Bell is currently the only driver that has secured their championship bid meaning if the championship is going to be decided between the Big 3 at Homestead like everybody has expected; Cole Custer and Tyler Reddick must avoid trouble in Saturday’s Desert Diamond West Valley Casino 200. As our attention turns towards the Xfinity Series on Saturday, we take this time to provide our expectations and 2019 Desert Diamond West Valley Casino 200 race picks for Phoenix!

The Xfinity Series has already visited ISM Raceway once earlier this year. Back in March, Kyle Busch earned a victory in the iK9 Service Dog 200 over Ryan Truex and Tyler Reddick. Reddick and Bell were the best among the Xfinity Series’ regulars back in March and many are expecting an encore performance from the dynamic duo on Saturday. If you look at recent races in the Xfinity Series at ISM Raceway, Christopher Bell has been truly dominate among the series’ regulars. Bell is the defending winner of this race and has sported an average driver rating of 122.9 over the last 3 races in Phoenix which is really incredible if you consider 2 of those 3 races were also against Cup Series drivers. With those types of numbers, it should be no surprise that Bell will headline tomorrow’s favorites.

Behind Bell, both Reddick and Custer are the next biggest names and statistically the best drivers at Phoenix. Both Reddick and Custer have produced a plus 100 average rating over the last 3 races at ISM Raceway with Reddick typically performing the better of the two drivers. When I look through the rest of the field, Austin Cindric stands out as a driver that also typically runs well at Phoenix which may be a bit surprising. Cindric has posted two straigth top 5 finishes at ISM Raceway which is a strong trend to remember for H2H match-ups or fantasy line-ups. Likewise, Justin Allgaier deserves some credit for being really good at Phoenix. Allgaier scored an Xfinity Series win at ISM Raceway in 2017 and has finished inside the top 5 in 6 of his last 9 starts.

Practice Observations

Aside from recent performances at Phoenix, we can turn some attention to both practice results from Friday for consideration as well. Unfortunately, practices did not yield any surprising results. In fact, the results from both practices nearly mirrored the track performance described above. Christopher Bell posted the fastest lap in both practices and the Big 3 took home the top 3 positions in each practice as well. The biggest thing that stood out was Bell’s consistency. In every trip on to the racing surface, the #20 car was posting the best laps in the field and showed some solid indicators of good long run speed as well. Needless to say, the #20 is looking awful tough ahead of Saturday’s green flag.

Looking deeper into the field, John Hunter Nemechek and Zane Smith stood out as potential drivers that could exceed expectations. Nobody has really pointed out that John Hunter has posted finishes of 8th or better in the last 4 races which includes vastly different track types. The #23 team seems to have found some speed and have been more competitive in recent races. Nemechek has always performed better on the smaller surfaces and all those trends bode well going into the weekend. Likewise, Zane Smith is also a driver that could have some upside. Smith is driving the same #8 car that Ryan Truex drove to a runner-up finish back in the spring and so far the team has shown similar speed. Smith has done a pretty good job in prior Xfinity Series starts capturing top 10 finishes in 6 of the last 7 races. Smith only have one top 5 finish to his name but appears to have another solid opportunity towards a quality run.

Betting and Fantasy Targets

Even though Christopher Bell is the guy to beat on Saturday, I highly doubt that the #20 will be worth targeting in betting match-ups because of unfavorable odds. Instead, I plan on targeting guys like John Hunter Nemechek, Zane Smith, and Tyler Reddick in match-ups. I know I have already mentioned those names previously but I truly believe that all 3 will have sharp value. The key will be identifying and/or selecting the best match-ups with those potential targets. I don’t really like the current form of guys like Justin Allgaier and Brandon Jones who have run pretty well at ISM Raceway. As a result, there may be plus odds fade potential against those drivers worth considering when odds are released.

In the realm of fantasy racing, we will have to wait until after qualifying Saturday morning before locking-in any selections. As it stands now, Gray Gaulding and Brandon Brown are two dark horses that should be kept on your radar for salary cap relief that also provide solid value. I really like Gaulding as a potential sleeper at $7,800 as a driver that could break into the top 15. Again, we have to see where everyone qualifies before we can determine potential floor/ceilings for each driver. Combine both of these targets with the drivers I mentioned above and we should have some solid options to consider for tomorrow’s fantasy line-ups.

Drivers to Fade

Fortunately, I have a couple of prime fade targets for Saturday’s Desert Diamond West Valley Casino 200 to consider. For starters, I believe Justin Allgaier will be a risky but sharp fade. I mentioned earlier that I don’t like the form of this #7 team but I want to clarify that statement. Allgaier has posted several quality finishes in recent weeks with 4 different top 5 finishes in the last 5 events. However, the #7 car has only led laps in one of those races (Dover) and remains the weakest link of the “favorites” when compared against the Big 3.

Riley Herbst is another driver worth fading on Saturday. Despite earning a full-time ride for JGR’s Xfinity Series program in 2020, Herbst has not exactly provided overwhelmingly positive results. The youngster has posted a career best finish of 9th in 8 career starts and has led just 1 lap stemming from a pole starting position at Richmond. As a result, Herbst does not provide the greatest ceiling which we could possibly leverage against.

Lastly, my favorite fade going into Saturday surrounds the #89 of Landon Cassill if you can find any match-ups listed. Cassill is a well-known name stemming from his continuous Cup Series participation and he has posted a few solid results in the #4 car for Johnny Davis this year including top 10 finishes at Talladega and Bristol. However, Cassill is piloting the #89 car for Morgan Shepard this week which is the reason for the full fade alert. Cassill has driven this particular car 8 times this season and has failed to finish every one of those races due to mechanical issues. This is about the equivalent of a start and park which could provide an excellent fade opportunity if odds makers list Cassill in match-ups.

2019 Desert Diamond West Valley Casino 200 Optimal Lineup

2019 Desert Diamond West Valley Casino 200 Race Picks

*Final*

Tyler Reddick +450 (1.5 units)
Austin Cindric +2200 (.5 unit)
Zane Smith +6600 (.25 unit)
John Hunter Nemechek +11000 (.25 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Christopher Bell -150 wins Desert Diamond West Valley Casino 200
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1.25 units to win: TBD

John Hunter Nemechek +160 over Noah Gragson
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Zane Smith -135 over Michael Annett (2 units)