2019 Daytona 500 Betting Predictions

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Draftkings Fantasy Racing and Betting Preview
Sunday February 17th, 2019 2:30PM EST
by Jay Horne, NASCAR Handicapper, NASCARWagers.com

The time has finally arrived as we officially kick off the 2019 betting season with our coverage of the 61st running of the Great American Race in the Daytona 500. Last year, we were able to sweep all of our Cup Series betting picks at the superspeedways for nearly 40 units of profit and the opportunity awaits on Sunday for another big potential payday. This year’s Daytona 500 has all the betting opportunities that you can ask for and a vast array of prop bets to consider as well. As we prepare for NASCAR’s biggest race, we take this time to provide our 2019 Daytona 500 betting predictions along with some notable Draftkings fantasy racing selections as well.

Before we get too deep into our breakdown, let me first state the looming obvious. Even though tomorrow’s Daytona 500 has incredible betting potential, this race still entails some needed luck to go our way. Because this race is so extremely unpredictable in nature combined with this new age of plate racing that I will get into later, I still think the best advice is to be a tad conservative while looking for value in our selections. All driver predictions posted below will be heavily influenced by the current odds attached to their name at online sportsbooks. At these plate races, you have to play the numbers game to be successful and that is what I plan to do. If you need a place to shop for online odds, go ahead and get setup with 5Dimes for immediate access to the best odds in sports.

As we head into Sunday’s afternoon’s “Super Bowl” of auto racing, we are faced with unappealing racing witnessed throughout Daytona Speedweeks in the Cup Series. Throughout last week’s Clash at Daytona, into Thursday’s Gander RV Duel races, and even into yesterday’s Xfinity Series Racing Experience 300, we have witnessed cars form a single line around the top of the racetrack. Despite the apparent capability to form multiple lanes, the racing has resorted to single file racing where you go backwards if you move to the bottom because not enough cars have shown the willingness to commit to the bottom lane.

Only a small handful of drivers have been able to pull off consistent passes and slide back into the top line before losing their momentum. In yesterday’s Xfinity Series race, the top 5 cars did not change positions at all during the final 10 laps of the race. I’m not sure if that has ever happened in the modern era of racing in the Xfinity Series. I know it has not happened at anytime that I can recall in recent years. The unfortunate truth is that drivers are scared to lose “track position” by making moves. After all, if you step out of line and go backwards in the closing laps; the chance of winning is gone. Fans do not like it, drivers do not like it, but it is highly unlikely anything will change going into Sunday’s 500 miles of racing.

Before I ruin your excitement for Sunday’s main event, there is some positive hope for the Daytona 500 from a handicapping standpoint. In the Xfinity Series, it seemed every car and driver was equal. After all we had the likes of Jeffrey Earnhardt and Michael Annett among the drivers who led the most laps. The reason that was possible is because the Xfinity Series changed their plate racing package to utilize the flange-fit composite body. This composite body was used during the 2018 season in the Xfinity Series excluding the plate races. Yesterday’s Racing Experience 300 was the debut for the composite body in the Xfinity Series and it appeared to level the playing field more than previously expected.

For Sunday’s Daytona 500, this will be the same restrictor plate package that was used in 2018. When we go to Talladega in April, the package will change as NASCAR throws out restrictor plates for the first time in 32 years and relies on the tapered spacers. For tomorrow, this will be the same package we witnessed throughout last season. For this particular package, this race may not be quite as “wide open” as the Xfinity Series race suggest. Instead, we should see those top teams and drivers hold their ground especially with the expectation of less “pack” racing. We simply have to target the better drivers, betting odds, and then hope for the best.

I have stated on several occasions that I believe Brad Keselowski is the best plate racing in the sport. However, Keselowski has always performed better at Talladega as opposed to Daytona. Also, I think teammate Joey Logano is closing the gap on the fight for the best place racer in the sport. Logano’s move from 4th to 1st in the final turn of Thursday Duel #2 was legendary and the defending champ remains a solid pick even as a top favorite at 10-1 odds. Speaking of favorites, you can make the case for anyone at these plate races. However, I like Kevin Harvick a lot for Sunday as well. He has the patience and vision to keep things in perspective until the end of this thing. It also helps that his #4 car looked really dominate out front on Thursday night. I like to look for cars that competitors have trouble getting to their bumper because it is a strong sign of raw speed. The #4 car looked to have all the right indicators of an extremely fast car in the draft ahead of tomorrow’s race.

Aside from the favorites, things really get interesting in this mid-range of betting odds among drivers. Aric Almirola and Paul Menard are two guys that I just can’t seem to ignore. Almirola nearly won this race last year and got redemption with a victory at Talladega. Either way you look at it, he has been excellent at the plate races and is currently in the best seat of his career. Menard does not necessarily have that overwhelming plate resume but has looked really fast throughout all sessions. Menard is in a really fast #21 Ford and has wheeled finishes of 6th or better in 3 of his last 4 Daytona races. At 16-1 to 20-1 odds depending on the sportsbook, I think these two drivers have enough value to warrant legitimate consideration.

A few other names that are worth keeping in mind are Clint Bowyer, Ricky Stenhouse Jr, and Kurt Busch. All of those guys are proven plate racers. Bowyer and Stenhouse actually rank 1-2 in average finishing position on the plate tracks among drivers with more than 5 starts. Both also have two plate racing wins. Bowyer was the guy that was in position for the win in Duel #2 before Logano pulled off his impressive run from 4th to 1st. I am not necessarily “targeting” these particular drivers but they deserve some respect for their knack to be there at the end.

When we step into the long shot category, I think there are several plausible options. Both William Byron and Alex Bowman can be given some attention at odds over 30-1. Hendrick Motorsports has shown some speed this week. I stated earlier in the week that Bowman has improved a lot as a plate racer. At both drivers current odds, they are worth consideration in the least. For the lottery style long shots, I like guys like Michael McDowell, Chris Buescher, Matt Dibenedetto, and David Ragan for some sprinkled small risk units. Ragan has won on both plate tracks and is notable plate racer. McDowell and Buescher have had strong runs in recent years. Meanwhile, Dibenedetto is a guy to watch this year as he replaces Kasey Kahne in the no. 95 car. Leavine Family Racing has also bridged a loosely termed “alliance” with Joe Gibbs Racing this year which is sure to boost their performance. Dibenedetto is a driver to watch for betting and fantasy value in the weeks ahead.

2019 Daytona 500 Draftkings Fantasy Racing Picks

Speaking of fantasy racing, I have provided my 2019 Daytona 500 optimum lineup below. At the plate races, I am a big fan of leaving some salary on the table. I like to prioritize my value by starting position as well. The risk of the “Big One” and wrecking carnage is extremely risky for drivers starting at the front. A top 10 driver that gets caught up in a wreck can bring -20 to -30 points which can obliterate a lineup. There is a chance tomorrow’s Daytona 500 is rather “calm” which is a product of this new single groove racing. However, there are enough legitimate talents starting towards the back that should move forward as well. Take a look at my optimum fantasy lineup and Daytona 500 betting predictions below!

2019 Daytona 500 Betting Predictions

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*Final*

Kyle Busch +1300 (.75 unit)
Aric Almirola +1650 (.75 unit)
Paul Menard +2750 (.5 unit)
Alex Bowman +3500 (.5 unit)
William Byron +3950 (.5 unit)
Michael McDowell +8000 (.25 unit)
Chris Buescher +10000 (.25 unit)
Matt Dibenedetto +10000 (.25 unit)
David Ragan +25000 (.25 unit)
Tyler Reddick +40000 (.25 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Kevin Harvick/Joey Logano +435 wins Daytona 500
Ryan Preece +125 over Daniel Hemric
Risking 1 unit to win: +1100

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Alex Bowman -115 over Jimmie Johnson (2 units)