2019 CTECH Manufacturing 180 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Saturday August 24th, 3:21PM (EST) at Road America
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Monster Energy Cup Series will be off this weekend before next week’s return at Darlington Raceway for the infamous Bojangles Southern 500. The void left by the Cup Series will be filled by both the Gander Outdoors Truck Series and the Xfinity Series over the next two days with exciting road course racing. On Saturday, the Xfinity Series will kick things off at Road America with the running of the CTECH Manufacturing 180. A few popular names will join the Xfinity Series regulars on Saturday including the likes of AJ Allmendinger, Regan Smith, and Matt Dibenedetto. However, everyone is still chasing Austin Cindric who has won the last 2 road course races and will be seeking yet another victory. Find out our thoughts as we breakdown our expectations and provide our 2019 CTECH Manufacturing 180 race picks!

It has been a rather unique lead-up to this weekend’s races. Betting odds were not released at most online books until Friday shortly before the Xfinity Series participated in the 1st practice of the weekend and though Truck Series odds are currently still posted; I did not find much value in any of the posted odds. In fact, this is the first week since the spring that I have not made any ‘early’ picks. Not only were betting odds unappealing but I also did not want to throw away any early risk. The last few road course races in the Xfinity Series have shed light on a handful of talents that have the skills to compete for a victory and I don’t see those drivers/odds undergoing drastic changes. Therefore, we will have to be sharp with our picks and understand we will not likely hit any type of huge underdog winner this week unless something bizarre unfolds. With those things in mind, we still look to keep our winning streak alive with another profitable weekend.

At Watkins Glen and Mid-Ohio, Austin Cindric emerged as the new road course king by scoring his 1st and 2nd Xfinity Series victory in consecutive weeks. I think everyone was aware of Cindric’s road course talent previously but it was still rather surprising to see the #22 team score consecutive wins. Aside from Cindric, AJ Allmendinger and Christopher Bell have been the best of the rest. Allmendinger had a 2nd place finish erased at Watkins Glen after failing post-race inspection but then bounced back with a 3rd place effort at Mid-Ohio. Meanwhile, Christopher Bell quietly received credit for 2 runner-up finishes at both venues as he continues to emerge as a top road course threat.

The only other driver that I anticipate jumping into the upper echelon of road course threats this week is Matt Dibenedetto who will get an opportunity in the #18 car for JGR. Dibenedetto is currently one of the most popular underdogs in the sport with his near victory at Bristol last week but his talent is often underappreciated as well. Dibenedetto posted finishes of 4th (Sonoma) and 6th (Watkins Glen) in the Cup Series this year to prove he has considerable road course skills and will now have the luxury of hopping into one of the top rides in the series. Therefore regardless of what practice speeds may have indicated on Friday, the guys mentioned above will be your favorites on Saturday based on their proven results and skill sets.

Practice Observations

By all observational accounts, Christopher Bell emerged as the guy to beat in practices on Friday. Bell topped the charts in both practices and also had the best overall speed in Happy Hour. I know Austin Cindric has won the last 2 road course races and he was solid again in practices; however I would put both Matt Dibenedetto and AJ Allmendinger on the same level of playing field as Cindric. In fact, I thought Dibenedetto was probably the 2nd best car on overall lap times with both Allmendinger and Cindric closely behind. I should probably mention Justin Allgaier as well. Allgaier had solid lap times and is known to perform well at the road course venues. My personal problem with Allgaier is that he simply has not been able to keep the car at the front of the field this season. Therefore unless his odds get extremely high, I don’t trust Allgaier in terms of value.

Outside of those favorites that I have discussed, I am a big fan of Jeremy Clements’ potential on Saturday. If you remember, I targeted Clements in both of the prior road course races and he brought him 11th place finishes at both races. While the finishes were satisfactory based on where the #51 typically places, Clements performed a lot better than the finishes may suggest especially at Mid-Ohio. So far this week, the #51 has looked really solid and I believe he will be a useful target in betting match-ups/fantasy situations once again. Another driver that I expect to exceed value in match-ups and fantasy lineups includes the #21 of Kaz Grala. Grala only has 4 starts this season for Richard Childress Racing but has brought home respectable top 15 finishes in his last 3 starts. Grala has above average road course skills and I believe he will be a driver that delivers value on Saturday.

Drivers to Fade

When Regan Smith made his return at Mid-Ohio, I was adamant about fading the former Xfinity Series regular after an unimpressive pair of practices where the #8 car was well off the pace. To be fair, it’s hard for a driver that has not been racing (in any series) to jump back in a car and perform well. As expected, Smith was a borderline top 10 car for most of the afternoon at Mid-Ohio before the team attempted a strategy call on pit road and then got into an accident that resulted in a 21st place finish. I believe nearly every match-up fading Smith cashed at Mid-Ohio and I am placing him into the fade category again this week. Now to be fair, Smith could and should perform better in his 2nd start. I just don’t see that improvement being enough to put him into considerable contention. Furthermore, Smith has never been a strong driver at Road America with just 1 top 10 finish in 3 starts. Therefore if the odds are reasonable, the #8 seems like another safe fade.

Another driver that I have pegged as a potential fade is Chase Briscoe. Now Briscoe has been performing extremely well over the last 2 months. In fact, Briscoe has not finished worse than 7th in the last 6 races which includes both road course races and the victory at Iowa. However, Road America is a venue that really favors towards experience and seems to be an outlier at times when compared to normal road course venues. Furthermore, the #98 did not seem to be quite as strong in practices on Friday as we have come to expect. So while this may be a risky fade, if you can get + odds by fading the #98 then it may be enough value to take a gamble.

2019 CTECH Manufacturing 180 Optimal Lineup

2019 CTECH Manufacturing 180 Race Picks

*More plays to be posted

Christopher Bell +400 (1.25 units)
AJ Allmendinger +650 (1 unit)
Tyler Reddick +2500 (.5 unit)

Team Team Parlays

Matt Dibenedetto +285 wins CTECH Manufacturing 180
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Ryan Sieg -145 over Josh Bilicki (2 units)