2019 Consumers Energy 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday August 11th, 3:16PM (EST) at Michigan International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Monster Energy Cup Series will unleash 38 cars at Michigan International Speedway this afternoon with the running of the Consumers Energy 400. Back in June, Joey Logano posted one of the most dominating victories of the season by leading 163 of 203 laps in the FireKeepers Casino 400. The victory also marked the most laps led by a driver in a single race at Michigan. Today, we expect a more competitive race at the front of the field with track position once again playing a big role in how things unfold. After two successful calls yesterday in the Truck and Xfinity Series’, we are ready to take aim at the weekend sweep with our 2019 Consumers Energy 400 race picks!

Like we have seen at several tracks this season, Michigan International Speedway has elected to add the PJ1 traction compound for this week’s event. The traction compound has been added to the outer grooves in both turns 1&2 and turns 3&4. However, I am not convinced this traction compound will change much with the racing surface. The vastly preferred groove will still be below the traction compound. If anything, it may help drivers on restarts if they attempt to make moves on the outside when they are coming up to speed. I am a bit skeptical that the compound will change anything under green flag conditions but it is something to think about nevertheless.

So far this weekend in practices, I have been extremely impressed by the Stewart-Haas Racing cars. Kevin Harvick qualified in the 2nd position for the Consumers Energy 400 on Friday. Harvick then backed up the qualifying effort with the fastest lap in practice 2 and was P3 on the board in Happy Hour. I know fast laps are just one part of the equation but Harvick was also really strong in race trim as well. Happy is the defending winner of the Consumers Energy 400 and he will have an excellent opportunity to defend his title this afternoon. Likewise, a few of the other Stewart-Haas Racing machines also had serious speed. Clint Bowyer had serious speed for the first time in several weeks. In fact, Bowyer had the best 15 and 20 lap averages with lap times that were right on par with his 5 and 10 lap times. As a result, I am vaulting Bowyer up my rankings this afternoon and labeling him as a serious contender.

Typically when you think of Michigan, Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott are a few names that jump out. Elliott has the best average finish at Michigan among active drivers and despite 0 wins; he has 3 runner-up finishes. Meanwhile, Larson once ruled Michigan International Speedway tallying 3 consecutive wins from the 2nd race in 2016 through 2017. The problem with both Elliott and Larson in recent races has been the decline of the Chevrolet teams. We have seen improvements from the Chevrolet teams in Hendrick and Chip Ganassi this year but they have not been consistent. Aside from Alex Bowman, most Hendrick Motorsports cars looked rather average in practices this weekend. Fortunately for #42 fans, Larson did show some good speed in McDonalds Chevrolet. I thought Larson was a borderline top 5 car in practice which means he is also a threat this afternoon due to his Michigan background.

Drivers to Target

Typically when we come to Michigan, all we talk about is speed. After all, Michigan has always been the fastest track on circuit excluded from the superspeedways. Under this new package, raw speed is still very important but “handling” on the setups should not be undermined either. If a driver is struggling with handling and cannot keep their foot on the throttle, it will absolutely kill lap times. Therefore a combination of speed and handling must work tandemly to produce a race winner this afternoon. The drivers I believe everyone should target this afternoon includes Clint Bowyer as I mentioned earlier. I believe Bowyer provides some upside in value and can also be used as a driver in betting match-ups. Bowyer and Harvick have proved to be two of the faster cars this weekend and both scored wins at Michigan in 2017.

A few other drivers that I believe should be on everyone’s radar includes the #20 of Erik Jones and the #2 of Brad Keselowski. Erik Jones has provided a string of quality finishes in recent weeks and is getting very close to scoring his 1st win of the season. Jones was very strong in practices and actually was the best of the Joe Gibbs Racing brigade. As a result of form, momentum, and the over looming shadow about the future of the #20 team, I believe Jones will do whatever takes to get a victory and I believe he should be a guy on everyone’s radar. Likewise, Brad Keselowski has looked really strong throughout the weekend as Bad Brad seeks his 1st win at his hometrack. Keselowski has been really close to winning at Michigan on multiple occasions and they have an excellent opportunity today with one of the better cars in the field.

If you want a few other names that have also looked pretty strong this weekend, Martin Truex Jr literally improved in every session this weekend. Since this is not an impound race, Truex and the #19 team could make even more overnight improvements that could put that car into contention. As I alluded to earlier, Alex Bowman had some really good speed for the first time in a few weeks. Lastly, Ryan Blaney is a guy that may be worth keeping in the back of your mind. Blaney’s speed has been pretty solid this weekend and while I think the #12 team needs to be better to be among the leaders; they are within striking distance.

Drivers to Fade

My two biggest fades going in Sunday’s 400 mile event at Michigan include Aric Almirola and the most recent winner at Michigan in Joey Logano. Almirola has just 1 top 10 finish in his 14 career starts at Michigan which begs to suggest that those stats may be driver influenced. I mentioned earlier that the Stewart-Haas cars looked really strong in practices but that did not include the #10 of Almirola. Instead, the #10 was consistently the worst Stewart-Haas Racing car and their speed was parallel to maybe a 15th place car. For Joey Logano, I was really surprised to see how much the #22 struggled on the stopwatch. I mentioned earlier Logano posted one of the most dominating victories in Michigan history last June. For whatever reason, that speed has not rolled over into this weekend. The #22 had what I would consider miserable lap times in practice and just did not seem competitive. Now with those things being said, I think our fade targets should still be proceeded with caution because again this is not an impound race meaning teams could have made several changes since Happy Hour. However if you can find match-ups that make sense against these two drivers, I would believe they are safe fades.

2019 Draftkings Consumers Energy 400 Optimal Lineup

2019 Consumers Energy 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Kyle Larson +1650 (.75 unit)
Erik Jones +1900 (.75 unit)
Clint Bowyer +2000 (.75 unit)
Kurt Busch +2200 (.5 unit) *early play
Ryan Blaney +2200 (.5 unit) *early play

Team Team Parlays

Austin Cindric +185 wins B&L Transport 170
Kevin Harvick +400 wins Consumers Energy 400
Risking 1 unit to win: +1325

Tyler Reddick +155 over Regan Smith
Brad Keselowski +450 wins Consumers Energy 400
Risking 1 unit to win: +1300

H2H Match-Ups

Clint Bowyer -120 over Chase Elliott (2 units)
Erik Jones -120 over Chase Elliott (2 units)
Brad Keselowski -140 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Alex Bowman +245 wins Group D (Johnson, Byron, and Suarez)(1 unit)