2019 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Predictions
Saturday July 6th, 7:48PM (EST) at Daytona International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Saturday evening NASCAR’s best will rekindle the magic of racing at Daytona International Speedway when the green flag waves for the Coke Zero Sugar 400. Last week, we witnessed Alex Bowman break through for his 1st career while cashing a winner at 45-1 odds. Bowman’s victory marked the biggest underdog win of the season among all of NASCAR’s touring series. However if you missed the big victory, Daytona definitely provides the possibility for another big winner and that’s what makes this race so exciting from a betting standpoint. As we look forward to an exciting and chaotic night at Daytona, we take this time to discuss the best betting options with our 2019 Coke Zero Sugar 400 race picks!

As everyone is aware, superspeedway racing provides the ultimate wild card. We never really know exactly what to expect but it is always entertaining. We know the race is unpredictable in nature but we will attempt to narrow down bets that are based on the principles on probability and value. However before we jump into driver discussions, I would like to point out a couple of important differences that this race will provide that the prior two superspeedway races did not. For starters, Saturday night’s race will be more sensitive towards good handling cars. Even under the lights, the track will be hot and slick which means cars must handle well in order to be able to pull off moves to get to the front of the field. Secondly I believe once cars are able to get to the front of the field, I believe they will have a better chance to stay at the front. I don’t anticipate the huge pack racing that we have seen in prior years. We will see a lot of single file racing as cars upfront look to force the hand of the cars behind them. As a result, track position will be surprisingly important.

In today’s age of superspeedway racing, I would consider that the group of Denny Hamlin, Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, and Brad Keselowski have clearly defined themselves as the best superspeedway talents in the sport. You could also throw Jimmie Johnson’s name into that group from a historical standpoint but I am really talking about the last few years. I am not exactly sure if we learned anything from practices on Thursday but it did seem that the #11 car could do anything he wanted. As I result, I have the #11 towards the top of my list among the favorites for Saturday. I also love backing Joey Logano in these races because he always seems to find a way to put himself in contention in the closing laps. Therefore, I will likely look to close out a parlay with the #11/#22 if possible so I have a few of the favorites on my lineup in some form or fashion.

Coke Zero Sugar 400 Dark Horses

From a betting standpoint, it is important that we fill our lineups with drivers that provide value in order to establish enough ROI for a superspeedway betting card. I typically try to keep my overall risk in the 4 unit range for these races with a lot of ½ and ¼ size bets that give me more drivers that could potentially cash a winning ticket. In order to accomplish this type of strategy, it is extremely important that the drivers on your lineup contain a lot of value so the reward is worth the risk. Therefore, let’s discuss a few drivers that definitely provide enough value to warrant betting attention.

Two of my favorite dark horses going into Saturday night include both Ryan Blaney and Jimmie Johnson. Ryan Blaney may not be considered a true dark horse from an odds standpoint but I consider him a dark horse for the fact that he has only won twice in 4 full seasons as a Cup Series driver. With that being said, Team Penske cars are confident in their handling setups and that is good news for Blaney who leads all drivers with a 96.4 average driver rating over the last 5 races at Daytona. If you consider the success that the other Team Penske cars have had this season, I think some pressure is building for the #12 to find victory lane and I believe that the entire team understands they have a great opportunity Saturday. Likewise, I believe the #48 team has a chance to end the longest winless streak of Jimmie Johnson’s career. Hendrick Motorsports has found some speed in the engine department and it’s hard to ignore the fact that Jimmie Johnson leads all drivers with 3 Daytona victories. I have made it a habit to fade Jimmie Johnson this year but this could be a weekend to jump back on board with the #48 team.

In terms of dark horses, we could make legitimate arguments for nearly everyone in the field. Still, I like guys like William Byron, Ryan Newman, and Aric Almirola as some of your deeper long shots. Almirola has a strong superspeedway background and is flying under the radar due to his performance thus far in 2019. Ryan Newman knows how to keep his nose clean and be in position towards the end. Meanwhile William Byron continues to show so much improvement, it would not be surprising to see him steal a win at a place like Daytona. Therefore, these are a few of the drivers that I am keeping on my radar that have rather big odds which should bring some solid value to all lineups.

Drivers to Fade

I have mentioned on several occasions this week that I am not a fan of H2H match-ups at Daytona because so much luck is involved in the finishes to these races. Furthermore, it is hard to find drivers to fade in these races because there are so many drivers that are capable of winning. I have not even mentioned guys like Chase Elliott. Kurt Busch, Clint Bowyer, and Kyle Busch in my previous mentions who are all more than talented superspeedway threats. However, I also realize that some bettors put more focus on exploiting H2H match-ups compared to betting on drivers to win the race outright and I agree that sometimes that is the best strategy. I just don’t think it’s the best strategy at the superspeedways.

Still if you are looking for a few drivers to fade, I would toss out the names of Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson as strong fades. Fading Kyle Larson at a superspeedway track should not be too surprising. Larson has publicly voiced his disdain for this style of racing and that disdain has often been associated with bad luck. Larson has finished outside the top 25 in 6 of his 11 career starts and boasts a measly 23.5 average finishing position in his career at Daytona. Meanwhile Chase Elliott may be a sharper and rather surprising fade candidate especially following his win at Talladega in April. For whatever reason, Elliott has never had much success at Daytona. Elliott’s best finish in 7 career starts at Daytona is 14th and he has finished 32nd or worse in 4 of those 7 starts. Therefore if that trends continues, Elliott is a surprising yet justified fade candidate.

2019 Draftkings Coke Zero Sugar 400 Predictions at Daytona

On Friday, rain moved into the area at Daytona International Speedway and cancelled qualifying efforts. As a result, the starting lineup will be enforced by the rule book meaning most of the top drivers will be starting at the front. However when it comes to superspeedway racing, I think it is important to pick as many drivers as possible that start towards the back. Place-differential is so important at Daytona because the finishing order is usually so random as a result of multiple car wrecks and utter chaos. I have cashed several winning tickets on lineups that had 1-2 cars that were wrecked at superspeedways by simply maximizing my place-differential points. Obviously that task will be harder on Saturday with the starting lineup set by points but it is an extremely important factor to consider when setting fantasy lineups for Daytona.

A few of the guys that I believe provide the most value in the fantasy realm include the flier options like David Ragan and Michael McDowell who are both starting from the 14th row. Ragan actually won this race in 2011 at 100-1 odds and several notorious strong performances at the superspeedways. Meanwhile, McDowell was a driver that I touched on in the early week preview as surprisingly having the 6th best average rating over the last 5 races. Both Ragan and McDowell are low salary options that provide some upside. Another cheap option with some upside includes the #96 of Parker Kligerman who continuously gets the best of his equipment and has some superspeedway skills.

Among the top 20 drivers, again I have a sneaky suspicion that Jimmie Johnson will run strong and possibly provide some value from the 14th starting spot. Ryan Blaney is a solid option that will not break your salary cap and likewise Aric Almirola provides some similar value. I am almost scared to put any of the favorites on my fantasy lineup this week because all we be starting at the front of the field. Therefore if one of those drivers gets caught up in Daytona chaos, it will be a huge hit in negative points. Unfortunately, it is nearly impossible to predict who those victims will be at superspeedway racing. If you do decide to play some fantasy lineups this week, it would probably be best to have a lot of variance to match the style of racing that will be presented Saturday and hopefully one of those lineups hits big!

2019 Draftkings Coke Zero Sugar 400 Optimal Lineup

2019 Coke Zero Sugar 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Ryan Blaney +1100 (1 unit)
Aric Almirola +2400 (.5 unit)
Jimmie Johnson +2800 (.5 unit)
Paul Menard +3300 (.5 unit)
William Byron +3300 (.5 unit) *early play
Ryan Newman +6000 (.25 unit)
Chris Buescher +8000 (.25 unit) *early play
Michael McDowell +8400 (.25 unit) *early play

Two Team Parlays

Austin Cindric +150 over Tyler Reddick (win)
Joey Logano/Denny Hamlin +455 wins Coke Zero Sugar 400
Risking 1 unit to win: +1285

Brad Keselowski/Kyle Busch +475 (cover parlay)
Ryan Newman +160 over Kyle Larson
Risking .5 unit to win: +700

Props

*Odds courtesy of Bovada!
Matt Dibenedetto +650 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)
Chris Buescher +900 finishes Top 5 (.25 unit)
Parker Kligerman +2800 finishes Top 5 (.25 unit)