2019 Coca Cola 600 Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Race Picks
Sunday May 26th, 6:18PM (EST) at Charlotte Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

In less than 24 hours, the engines will fire for the 60th running of the Coca Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway for one of the marquee calendar events in NASCAR. However tomorrow’s racing festivities extend beyond the realm of NASCAR as we approach the greatest day in motorsports. The morning hours will focus on the Monaco Grand Prix. Afterwards, attention will turn towards the 103rd running of the Indianapolis 500. Then the big boys from NASCAR will drive us off into the sunset with the Coca Cola 600 to cap off the biggest day of the year in motorsports. As we await an action packed day of racing, we take this time to breakdown NASCAR’s longest race and provide our 2019 Coca Cola 600 race picks!

If you happened to catch today’s Xfinity Series race, perhaps you heard how many times the broadcast spoke towards the dreadful “heat.” I personally live in the Charlotte area and the heat has been miserable this week mimicking the type of temperatures we would typically see in mid-July. Despite starting in the evening, tomorrow’s Coca Cola 600 will still have to deal with the heat until the sun goes down as temperatures are expected to be in the mid 90s yet again. That means the track is going to be extremely slick and we will see a significant amount of tire wear come into play. Today’s Xfinity Series’ Alsco 300 turned into a race of attrition due to tire problems and I imagine we will see some more on Sunday perhaps to a lesser degree.

What does that mean? Well, it means that nobody is safe from misfortune. If it is not a tire problem, it could easily become a handling problem as the race progresses and this track transitions into the sunset. Drivers are going to have their handful trying to muscle these cars around a slick track and we will likely see some “surprise” names battle their way into contention at some point or another. These circumstances make handicapping difficult because there are so many x-factors. Heck, there an entire additional stage in this 600 mile race. In the Xfinity Series race today, I felt like I handicapped that race perfectly yet in the closing stages my H2H driver cut a tire down after dominating their opponent for the entire race and I had similar bad luck with 2 parlay starters. Hell, one of those parlays (Austin Dillon) was dominating his match-up until the car suffered crush panel damage and Dillon had to retire due to Carbon Monoxide filtering into the car. That’s about as bad as it gets in terms of luck.

Either way, I am going to attempt to swing back with a couple of mean hooks in hopes for a bounce back effort on Sunday. I feel like I have a good grip on the drivers to target and we just have to hope things hold up for all 600 miles. Before we get to the discussion on the drivers to target, let’s first discuss the drivers to avoid. I am going to make a bold statement and say avoid the Team Penske cars on Sunday. I feel like those cars have lost some momentum in the last few weeks and it has shown on the stopwatch thus far in Charlotte since cars unloaded on Thursday. Joey Logano was the only Team Penske car that qualified in the Top 15 on Thursday and they all struggled in both of Saturday’s practices. We have seen these cars “race” well when the green flag drops for most of the year. However, I don’t have the same vibe from those teams this week. I think they are legitimately trying to find. Perhaps the only exception to this argument is Brad Keselowski. Keselowski has proven time and time again to get the best from his equipment and has scored 2 of his 3 wins on 1.5 mile surfaces. So unless it is the #2 car, I will avoiding Team Penske

Likewise, I have similar intuition about the Hendrick cars for the Coca Cola 600. The Hendrick Motorsports car have gained momentum in recent weeks. I watched all of the Hendrick cars very closely in practice in hopes that a potential dark horse would emerge. However, I simply did not see any evidence of any potential challengers. I honestly thought Chase Elliott or Alex Bowman would have some sleeper potential before the weekend began. Instead, I believe William Byron has the best car with Sunday approaching. Byron won the pole for the 60th running of the Coca Cola 600 on Thursday and it is worth noting that he typically performs well after a good qualifying effort. I believe Byron has the speed to stay towards the front but I am just unsure how far towards the front from an expectations standpoint.

Coca Cola 600 – Drivers to target

Since I have kind of broken down this preview into a team differential, it is only right to state that Joe Gibbs Racing has emerged as the best team so far this weekend. All of the JGR cars have shown tremendous speed. Kyle Busch, the defending Coca Cola 600 winner, has looked really strong. Meanwhile the likes of Denny Hamlin, Martin Truex, and even Erik Jones have all looked really strong as well. I took Denny Hamlin on openers because he has a great resume in the 600 including top 5 finishes in the last 3 marathon events. Hamlin remains a solid sleeper pick and someone to target in H2H match-ups.

However, I feel like Martin Truex is the guy that is not getting enough credit. Kyle Busch has garnered all of the early betting attention and we all understand the type of talent that is behind the wheel of the #18. However, Busch has also cooled off a bit from his hot start this year and the #19 team has picked it up in the momentum department. Truex has scored 2 wins in the last 4 races and is coming into a race that stylistically fits him perfectly. Truex has posted top 3 finishes in 5 of the last 6 races at Charlotte (oval) including 2 victories. The #19 team shown solid long run speed again in Saturday’s practices and I have to believe he will be a top contender when the sun settles at Charlotte especially considering the tire wear/issues that have emerged.

Outside of the JGR guys, the next best options are obviously the Stewart-Haas Racing guys. Kevin Harvick is a deserving favorite behind Busch. However, I want to start seeing Harvick be more “dominant” and actually score a win to warrant the sub 5-1 odds he is getting every week. Aric Almirola qualified in the 2nd position for the 600 but I actually thought he was the worst of the SHR cars in terms of lap times. Bowyer did not “overly” impress me on lap times either but that is typical from the #14 driver. Bowyer usually does not come alive until the 2nd half of races and that factor alone keeps him in the discussion for a potential target. Meanwhile one of the surprise cars of the weekend surrounds the #41 of Daniel Suarez. Suarez has shown excellent short run speed this week and admittedly the team has been working to make the car better on the long run. I thought they closed out final practice with some positive gains. If they can make a few more improvements, Suarez could be a legitimate dark horse.

H2H Sleepers and Targets

Outside of the JGR brigade and perhaps Harvick/Bowyer from SHR, I don’t feel confident naming any other real contenders for the victory. If this turns into a race of attrition like today’s Xfinity Series race, obviously that could bring different characters into contention. However, I don’t necessarily expect that to happen. With that being said, there are still some drivers to target in H2H match-ups that should exceed expectations. I mentioned Daniel Suarez and Denny Hamlin above who should race better than their match-ups suggest. I would also throw the likes of Paul Menard and Austin Dillon into that group as well. Menard has posted 3 straight top 20 finishes at Charlotte and likely has the best car this weekend that he has had in any of those races. I think the #21 could legitimately contend for a Top 10 finish on Sunday which would be the best finish of the season on a track over 1 mile in length. Likewise, Austin Dillon is a guy that I think we exceed his expectations. The RCR cars have been pretty solid and Dillon really likes his hometrack. The #3 car posted the 2nd best 10 lap average in final practice so they have brought some speed this weekend. So keep both of these guys on your radar.

Draftkings Coca Cola 600 Optimal Lineup

I know Kyle Busch is the heavy favorite tomorrow but I have no problem locking the #18 into my anchor position. The hot and slick conditions at the start of tomorrow’s 600 favor Busch tremendously. From the 3rd starting position, Busch should be able to get out front early and lead several laps. Even if he fades to some degree late, Busch should return value with the early potential and let’s not forget going into the 600; he has the best car. Afterwards, I am going to spend some salary for top tier drives Martin Truex and Denny Hamlin who I expect will both be a factor on Sunday. Both Truex and Hamlin will be starting outside the top 10 which helps the place differential potential therefore I don’t mind sacrificing the salary prices.

Behind 3 rock solid fantasy drivers, I am going to choose Daniel Suarez ($8,000) as my value option. Suarez is starting up front but I think he can finish around where he starts if things go according to plan. There is some risk in this pick but I am rolling the dice. My salary fliers are going to be Ross Chastain at $5,800 and Parker Kligerman at $5,100. Chastain is obviously racing in underperforming equipment but I am simply betting Chastain outlast a lot of the competitors around him to finish several spots ahead of where he is starting (35th). I am also taking another flier with Parker Kligerman for a similar strategy. Kligerman seems to get the best out of his car and more importantly stay out of trouble. If these two guys can simply stay out of trouble and move forward, I am banking on the rest of my picks producing the bulk of my fantasy points.

Best 15 Lap Averages	Avg. Time
Kyle Busch	30.16
Denny Hamlin	30.18
Erik Jones	30.19
Daniel Suarez	30.21
Martin Truex	30.22
Ryan Blaney	30.29
Paul Menard	30.29
Clint Bowyer	30.3
Brad Keselowski	30.35

Best 20 Lap Averages	Avg. Time
Kyle Busch	30.2
Erik Jones	30.23
Denny Hamlin	30.32
Daniel Suarez	30.33
Brad Keselowski	30.38
Clint Bowyer	30.38
Chase Elliott	30.4
Ryan Blaney	30.4
Joey Logano	30.43

*Graphs reflects the final run in race trim on new tires during final practice

2019 Coca Cola 600 Race Picks

*Final

Brad Keselowski +1150 (1 unit)
Denny Hamlin +2000 (.5 unit) *early play
Erik Jones +2000 (.5 unit)
Clint Bowyer +2500 (.5 unit)
Daniel Suarez +5000 (.25 unit)
William Byron +5000 (.25 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Tyler Reddick +180 wins Alsco 300 (win)
Kevin Harvick/Martin Truex +330 wins Coca Cola 600
Risking 1 unit to win: +1100

Paul Menard +150 over Daniel Hemric
Kyle Busch +200 does not finish Top 5
Risking 1 unit to win: +650

Clint Bowyer +140 over Joey Logano
Daniel Suarez +125 over Kyle Larson
Risking 1 unit to win: +440

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Martin Truex Jr -130 over Joey Logano (2 units)
Denny Hamlin -140 over Aric Almirola (2 units)
Daniel Suarez +100 over Jimmie Johnson (2 units)
William Byron +125 over Kurt Busch (1 unit)
Denny Hamlin +350 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
Daniel Suarez +575 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)