2019 Circle K Firecracker 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Friday July 5th, 7:48PM (EST) at Daytona International Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Tomorrow night a full Xfinity Series field will get an opportunity to race for a victory under the lights at Daytona International Speedway with the running of the Circle K Firecracker 250. In recent weeks, all Xfinity Series storylines have surrounded the Big 3 of Christopher Bell, Cole Custer, and Tyler Reddick who have combined to win the last 9 straight races. However tomorrow night’s Firecracker 250 at Daytona will bring some much needed parity into the spotlight as a product of the draft and superspeedway racing. As a result, several drivers should have a legitimate shot to earn a trip to victory lane and threaten an end the Big 3’s reign of terror. As we anticipate racing under the lights at Daytona, we are ready to discuss the drivers that should be on everyone’s radar and provide our thoughts on the best betting options. Take a look as we provide our 2019 Circle K Firecracker 250 race picks for Daytona!

Even though Daytona presents the perfect opportunity for a new driver to earn a victory this season that still does not mean it will happen. I am personally hoping we will see a different winner. However, everyone should keep in mind that this 9 race winning streak from the Big 3 also includes a superspeedway race with Tyler Reddick’s win at Talladega. Reddick is probably one of the better superspeedway drivers in the field with a victory at both Daytona and Talladega on his resume so it would not be surprising to see the #2 in contention again on Friday. Christopher Bell and Cole Custer have never won on the superspeedway tracks and this type of racing does not necessarily play into their strengths. Still, both are capable of winning and it is worth mentioning that Bell has greatly improved his performance at the superspeedways since the beginning of his career. Bell posted a 3rd place finish at Talladega and was 6th at Daytona back in February. Therefore, do not write off the favorites just because Daytona provides greater “opportunity” for the rest of the competition.

From a handicapping or betting standpoint, I really like the potential that someone from the group of intermediate odds will strike gold. There is a rather big group of guys from John Hunter Nemechek, Noah Gragson, Chase Briscoe, Austin Cindric, and others who are very capable of winning this event. Michael Annett, who won the season opener at Daytona, is also in that group as a respectable superspeedway talent. I was really impressed by Annett’s drive back in February as he was able to keep the #1 car at the front of the field for 45 of the 100 laps, including the final run to the finish. Annett is part of the J.R Motorsports brigade that always runs well in these races. In fact, J.R. Motorsports cars have won 3 of the last 4 races at Daytona. If you consider Annett’s emergence at the superspeedway,combined with Justin Allgaier’s knack for superspeedways and the emerging talent of Noah Gragson, it would not be surprising to see another win from this group again.

When I was looking at the last 3 superspeedway races in the Xfinity Series which includes the 2018 Firecracker 250 and the Daytona/Talladega races this season, Justin Allgaier stands out as the driver that has consistently been at the front of the field most often. Allgaier has maintained a plus 100 driver rating over those 3 events which is truly impressive considering how easy it is to find trouble at the superspeedway tracks. I consider Allgaier one of the best in the Xfinity Series at this type of racing but disappointingly his odds have been pretty low all week. In the two races earlier this year, Tyler Reddick, Christopher Bell, and Austin Cindric have posted the best average driver ratings. I actually wanted to take Cindric at openers but I thought his 14-1 odds were a little overvalued. I also noticed Cindric does not normally qualify well at the superspeedways so I held off to see if his odds would be better after qualifying. We will see if that thinking pays off and the #22 receives more valuable odds because I would like to have him on my lineup if the ROI makes sense.

A few other names that I think warrant some attention based on their odds includes Brandon Jones, John Hunter Nemechek, and Justin Haley. All of those drivers have the talent to deliver a surprising victory on Friday night. I feel like Justin Haley is a forgotten driver in the Xfinity Series right now but he is still an extremely undervalued talent. Remember, Haley initially won this race last year but was later black flagged after his pass in the tri-oval was deemed under the yellow line. Needless to say, he has proven he can get to the front when it matters. Meanwhile, John Hunter and Brandon Jones will certainly make aggressive moves and leave everything on the line if they are in position for a victory in the closing laps. I always like that mentality at the superspeedways. We don’t want our money on drivers that are afraid to make bold moves. Furthermore, I would also point out that Jones has been a solid driver at Daytona in recent years so he seems to have a knack for this type of racing.

Firecracker 250 Drivers to Fade

I mentioned in my early preview this week that I usually try to avoid H2H match-ups at Daytona. Most match-ups are a coin flip that boils down towards more luck than skill. These superspeedway races can produce a lot of chaos and carnage with big wrecks that often will take out innocent drivers. As a result, it is not smart to have a lot of wagers pending on the outcome of this style of racing. With that being said, I still always like to provide a few drivers that are worthy of fade consideration if you decide to pursue any match-ups. Currently, my two favorite fades for Friday include the likes of Cole Custer and AJ Allmendinger.

Fading Custer is simply a preference because he has not been great at Daytona or Talladega in his young career. Because Custer has been so strong this year, he will be paired against other top drivers in the form of H2H match-ups which presents fade value. In 5 prior starts at Daytona, Custer’s best finish is 14th which was back in February. With those types of stats, Custer’s provides a lot of potential fade value against other known favorites. Likewise, I believe AJ Allmendinger is also worthy of fade consideration. Allmendinger has been out of the driver seat all year after losing his ride in the Cup Series last season. To be quite honest, I never thought of Allmendinger as the greatest talent and he often drove over his head. If that happens here in his 1st chance back, I would bet Allmendinger does not even finish the race. That may be a bold stance but I am not big on Allmendinger in this situation. After topping the leaderboard in the only Xfinity Series practice earlier today, Allmendinger’s expectations from the public may be a bit too high. Kaulig Racing has provided some decent equipment but I would much rather have Ross Chastain or Justin Haley if I had to pick a driver from that particular organization.

*I am not going to post my normal Draftkings predictions this week. For Daytona and Talladega, your best fantasy strategy is to complete several different lineups with a lot of variance because so much luck is involved. I don’t feel like true handicapping is beneficial for this type of race. Even after a personal big win last week in Draftkings, I will not be playing many lineups this week because there is not much of a handicapping edge that can be applied towards fantasy racing this week.

2019 Circle K Firecracker 250 Race Picks

*Final

Christopher Bell +770 (1 unit)
Austin Cindric +1400 (.75 unit)
Chase Briscoe +1750 (.5 unit)
John Hunter Nemechek +2000 (.5 unit)
Brandon Jones +2000 (.5 unit) *early play
Noah Gragson +2200 (.5 unit) *early play
Ryan Sieg +5500 (.25 unit) *early play
Joe Graf Jr +10000 (.25 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Justin Allgaier +525 wins Firecracker 250
Team 2 – TBA
Risking .5 unit to win: TBD

Austin Cindric +150 over Tyler Reddick
Team 2 – TBA
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD