2019 Chicagoland Preview
NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service
For the first time in nearly two months, all of NASCAR’s touring series will be together on the same weekend when the racing action heats up this week at Chicagoland Speedway. Camping World will be the primary sponsor for all 3 races this weekend. The Gander Outdoors Truck Series will kick things off Friday night with the Camping World 225, followed by the Camping World 300 in the Xfinity Series on Saturday, and concluding on Sunday with the Monster Energy Cup Series in the Camping World 400. As we prepare for another full weekend of racing and numerous betting opportunities, we take the time to provide a full preview of Chicagoland Speedway and some things to keep in mind as the weekend approaches.
Chicagoland Speedway Layout and Notes
Like many tracks on the Monster Energy Cup Series schedule, Chicagoland Speedway is a 1.5 mile layout that shares resemblances in shape/banking to the likes of Kentucky and Kansas speedways. However, Chicagoland is a rather unique 1.5 mile design. There is honestly not a preferred racing groove. We will see a mixed bag of drivers on the bottom, middle, and all the way at the top of the track as rubber is laid down. By all understanding, this is a driver’s racetrack where drivers will have the opportunity to search for grip throughout green flag runs while wrestling the car through the turns in an effort to maximize throttle exit. With the new package and lower horsepower, it will be an even bigger driver’s track as drivers fight to keep their foot in the throttle to avoid losing momentum. Obviously a good car needs a strong setup for long runs at Chicagoland but driver input is a huge component towards getting the best speed in the car.
The surface at Chicagoland is very bumpy and rigid creating one of the most abrasive surfaces in NASCAR. Tire wear is extremely significant drawing some comparisons to the likes of Atlanta and Darlington. GoodYear will bring a completely new tire combination this week to Chicagoland Speedway. The combination is a product of a GoodYear tire test that was conducted back in early May. Brad Keselowski, Paul Menard, and Ryan Newman were the only drivers to participate in the test. NASCAR allows team organization rotations for series testing but it may be worth mentioning that all 3 organizations testing at Chicagoland were Ford manufacturers.
Handicapping Strategy
Anytime we come to a track that has a high level of track wear, I get sort of excited. Tracks like Atlanta, Darlington, Sonoma, Richmond, and Chicagoland are usually good handicapping tracks because we are not playing a game of track position where anything can happen. Instead, the better drivers and long run setups will prevail just as we seen last week at Sonoma. Because long run speed is so important, I also believe it is better to be cautious with early bets. I normally like to see practice speeds at these types of tracks because if you don’t have a setup that can retain speed for the long run, then you likely will not have a winning race car.
If we come across some drivers with extreme value once betting odds are released, I would not criticize anyone for jumping on early value. All I would say to bettors is make sure you do not oversaturate your betting lineup too early in the week before cars even hit the track. Practices do not mean everything but they are an important indicator at a place like Chicagoland. From an overall strategic standpoint, I will be looking to create some parlay opportunities in the lower series races. Because Chicagoland usually promotes the best talent at the front of the field, we could easily see the favorites at low odds pull out victories this week. As a result, it will be important to create some parlay opportunities and also be really sharp on H2H match-ups this week.
Camping World 225 Preview
Ross Chastain scored his 2nd straight win last week, though only one of them counted. If not for the disqualification at Iowa, Chastain would have 3 victories this season which is the best among Truck Series regulars and disturbingly impressive coming from Niece Motorsports equipment. The crazy thing is that I believe Chastain has a great opportunity to go after another victory this week. He will likely be at a bigger aero disadvantage this week but from a driver standpoint; Chicagoland provides a lot of speed gain for a guy like Chastain.
Judging by the way the season has unfolded on 1.5 mile tracks in the Truck Series, bettors would have to expect Stewart Friesen and Grant Enfinger will be among the top threats to win. Johnny Sauter and Brett Moffitt are both former winners which will obviously garner some respect. Moffitt is the defending winner of the Camping World 225 but the #24 team has not exactly exceeded expectations this year especially on 1.5 mile tracks. Johnny Sauter has been better than Moffitt at the 1.5 mile tracks but like Moffitt; the #13 truck has also experienced a semi slump over the last few weeks. Therefore, I will likely not bet on either of these candidates unless I see something convincing in practices.
For drivers to watch on Thursday, I would throw Ben Rhodes into the conversation as a potential dark horse to keep on the radar. Rhodes has finished 6th and 2nd in his last two Chicagoland starts in the Truck Series. Perhaps most importantly, Rhodes has been vastly underrated at the 1.5 mile tracks this season. The #99 is rarely talked about but has posted finishes of 5th at Atlanta, 4th at Charlotte, and 3 different runner-up finishes. At that pace, the #99 is eventually going to strike gold and Chicagoland could definitely be the place. Lastly, I would also throw Brandon Jones into the drivers to watch category. Jones has the luxury of getting behind the wheel of the infamous #51 truck with Rudy Fugle. In Jones’ last ride with the #51, they unloaded well off the pace and even qualified in the 21st position. Still, Jones was able to claw his way back to a 5th place finish. If the team unloads better this weekend, Jones could be a legitimate dark horse.
Camping World 300 Preview
I would hate to discourage anyone from early week excitement but the Camping World 300 is shaping up to be a battle between the “Big 3” before the week even begins. As I stated earlier, Chicagoland Speedway provokes the best out of drivers and talent is hard to hide. The names on the winners list at Chicagoland in recent years includes the likes of Kyle Larson, Justin Allgaier, Kyle Busch, Erik Jones, Kevin Harvick, Chase Elliott, and Joey Logano. Aside from Allgaier, we could make the argument that all of those drivers are championship talents at NASCAR’s highest level. Therefore we will likely see the best drivers continue to emerge this week and there is a huge talent gap from Christopher Bell, Cole Custer, and Tyler Reddick to the rest of the competition.
Unfortunately for the Big 3, Joey Logano enters the mold this week which clearly pushes his name to the top of the list. Logano will pilot the #12 car with Team Penske. Logano has an impressive resume at Chicagoland in the Xfinity Series with wins with both Joe Gibbs and Team Penske along with a pair of runner-up finishes in just 7 starts. If you consider the track difficulty and speed that the #12 car brings in competition, Logano will be the deserving overall favorite. We should only hope that that gives us better odds for the “Big 3” if the #12 cannot get the job done.
I think both Justin Allgaier and Chase Briscoe are two solid options that should showcase their talent this week. Allgaier has been really good at the heavy tire wear tracks and Briscoe has exceeded expectations in most races overall. However, I still don’t believe either driver is performing strong enough or quite has the talent to outrun the top 3. I would love to be wrong because as a bettor; I believe we always want to seek the drivers with better odds. I just don’t see it happening this week. Unless something major changes, this will be a race where we need to setup parlay opportunities to carry into the Cup race and possibly exploit a few H2H match-ups.
Camping World 400 Preview
Sunday’s main event in the Camping World 400 will likely see the Monster Energy Cup Series’ biggest names emerge at the front of the field. Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Martin Truex, and Brad Keselowski are all two-time winners. Statistically speaking, Chicagoland is one of Keselowski’s best tracks with a lucrative 9.2 average finishing position over 10 career starts. Kyle Larson has never won at Chicagoland but likely deserves similar respect. Larson has finished in the Top 5 in 3 of his 5 career starts including a runner-up finish last year. In terms of loop data stats, there are 8 drivers with plus 100 average driver ratings over the last 5 races. Those drivers include Kyle Busch (116.9), Chase Elliott (111.4), Kevin Harvick (109.4), Martin Truex (109.0), Brad Keselowski (108.6), Denny Hamlin (102.9), Joey Logano (102.4), and Kyle Larson (102.0). If you remember last week at Sonoma, there were only 4 drivers with plus 100 average driver ratings over the last 5 races. This week we have double the capacity.
What does this mean? Well when you look at those names, I see the top drivers in our sport. We will just have to carefully watch for the guys that unload and practice well on Saturday to prove whether they have a car worthy of contending for a victory on Sunday. If you go back to the tire wear topic that I mentioned earlier, I believe Martin Truex and Denny Hamlin have been the best in the business this year on long runs at high tire wear tracks. Therefore those two drivers have elevated stock as the week begins. Kyle Busch, Martin Truex, and Denny Hamlin have all won the last 4 races at Chicagoland which means the Joe Gibbs Racing guys will likely be tough to beat.
From the handicapping narrative, this weekends’ races will likely not provide the biggest profit potential. However, if we stick with the talent narrative, I think we can put most of our focus in the right direction towards drivers that have the best opportunity to end their day in victory lane. Sure I will be watching for any dark horse candidates when practices begin. I already have my eyes on the likes of Erik Jones and Alex Bowman for potential H2H match-up targets. I just want to see some conviction from those teams in practices. However I believe bettors should really focus on H2H match-ups at Chicagoland as they hold the key towards having a successful weekend.
