2019 Chevrolet Silverado 250 Race Picks

NASCAR Gander Outdoors Truck Series Betting Predictions
Sunday August 25th, 2:43PM (EST) at Canadian Tire Motorsports Park
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

The Gander Outdoors Truck Series will step into the Sunday spotlight for the first time this year with the running of the Chevrolet Silverado 250 at the Canadian Tire Motorsports Park. As the Cup Series enjoys a rare off week, the Truck Series will have the opportunity to fill the Sunday void at an intriguing road course venue. Luckily, the Truck Series has an excellent opportunity to provide onlookers an exciting event because Canadian Tire Motorsports Park has provided some of the most polarizing finishes in Truck Series history in recent years. As we hope for another exciting afternoon north of the border, it’s time to turn our focus towards our betting expectations as we present our 2019 Chevrolet Silverado 250 race picks!

The entry list for Sunday’s Chevrolet Silverado 250 is smaller than usual with just 28 trucks scheduled to participate. A lot of people don’t realize that operating costs make it tough for some of the smaller budget teams to make the trip to Bowmanville and it’s something I have routinely noticed over the last few years. Despite the smaller entry list, one of the most popular road course “ringers” in Alex Tagliani will make his return to NASCAR. The 45 year old Canada native has made 4 career starts in the Truck Series which have all resided in Bowmanville. Tagliani won the pole in his first 2 starts but has only managed a career best finish of 5th. In the last two starts, Tagliani was never a big factor in his 2 starts with Young Motorsports. However, this week expectations are a bit different as Tagliani steps behind the wheel of the most famous seat in the series in the #51 truck with Rudy Fugle and Kyle Busch Motorsports.

Tagliani was solid in both of Saturday’s practice sessions. The #51 truck finished P3 in the opening practice and was P9 in Happy Hour. More importantly, Tagliani’s overall average was pretty solid. With that being said, I don’t believe Tagliani is among the top favorites for Sunday’s event but remains a threat nevertheless. In terms of favorites, I believe it is hard to truly understand who will emerge at the front of the field. Unlike the Xfinity Series who just had their 3rd road course race of the season on Saturday, this will be the Truck Series first and only road course race of the season. So what does that mean and how do we approach Sunday’s 64 lap event? I believe we have to be cautiously aggressive. Meaning we can take a few drivers by spreading out our bets while keeping our overall risk relatively low. Perhaps we have some freeroll money after cashing in on yesterday’s Xfinity Series race but we still want to be stingy with our profit by avoiding any wasteful betting action.

Drivers to Target

Before I discuss observations pertaining to Saturday’s practices, let me first mention the importance of experience at Bowmanville. Aside from the 1st Truck Series event at the Canadian Tire Motorsports Park in 2013, every winner from 2014-2018 has had prior starts in Bowmanville. Ultimately what I am trying to say is that experience holds value. Guys like Brett Moffitt, Johnny Sauter, and Matt Crafton should likely be given some added value due to their experience north of the border. Sauter and Crafton have never been overly impressive in this style of racing but Moffitt does have a 3rd place finish as recently as last year. Along with experience, Canadian Tire Motorsports Park typically provokes the best talents in the field as well. When you look at the winners list which includes Chase Elliott, Ryan Blaney, Erik Jones, John Hunter Nemechek, Austin Cindric, and Justin Haley, one could easily argue that those were the best drivers in the field at that time.

If we continue to extrapolate experience and overall talent, Brett Moffitt and Ross Chastain are the two drivers that emerge as top threats on Sunday. Moffitt actually posted the fastest time in Happy Hour and produced the best overall lap times. In my opinion Moffitt should be the ultimate favorite on Sunday while Ross Chastain should be in the conversation as well. Outside of those two top tier talents, I would reluctantly place Todd Gilliland towards the top of my driver’s list on Sunday. I know Gilliland is 0 and 42 in the Truck Series and has consistently been a letdown driver in terms of betting purposes. However, the driver of the #4 has shown a lot of road course skills that are worthy of consideration. If you remember, Gilliland was leading on the final lap of last year’s Chevrolet Silverado 250 before Noah Gragson wrecked him prior to the checkered flag. Therefore, Gilliland has proven the ability to run upfront and based on the current competition; he remains a considerable threat on Sunday. Despite the winless career in the Truck Series, I would place Gilliland in my top 3 drivers ahead of Sunday’s green flag. Therefore the #4 should be targeted in all situations on Sunday as I believe he has a great opportunity to overachieve.

Drivers to Fade

If you happened to miss practices on Saturday, Jordan Anderson wrecked in Happy Hour and sustained heavy damage on the rear end of the #3 truck. Anderson and the #3 team did not bring a backup truck to Bowman and have elected to rebuild the rear end. I mention these facts because Anderson missed some important track time in Happy Hour and I also feel like the team has an uphill challenge in terms of completely repairing the backend of the #3 truck. For that reason alone, Anderson is on my radar as a possible fade ahead of Sunday’s race because the #3 truck could have lingering issues ahead of Sunday’s green flag.

One of the popular names that has creeped towards the top of my fade list includes the #52 truck of Stewart Friesen. By now, everyone should be familiar with Friesen’s background which includes dirt and short track layouts. Road course racing requires a completely different type of skill set and I am not sure Friesen’s current skills align with his normal performance. Friesen did finish 7th in last year’s race at Canadian Tire Motorsports Park but he did not perform well in that race. Instead, the #52 simply avoided trouble which is complementary yet still unconvincing. If we can find better talents paired against the #52 on Sunday, they have a better opportunity of winning based on pure probability because of the differences in skill sets.

Betting Strategy – Update

As I concluded my preview for tomorrow’s Chevrolet Silverado 250, I got a glimpse of odds pertaining to tomorrow’s race for the first time. Unfortunately, I am pretty shocked at current odds which have the likes of Alex Tagliani, Todd Gilliland, and Brett Moffitt all listed at under 4-1 odds. Odds are simply ridiculous. We have 2 drivers that have never won a race listed at +250 which is simply appalling. I am hoping things will change after qualifying on Sunday which will take place at 9:25AM (EST). If odds do not change, I will be forced to scale back my normal risks or forego tomorrow’s race all together. I don’t believe I have pulled out of a race all season due to odds purposes but I also understand that you cannot sustain profit if odds do not provide value. I am completely dissatisfied with current odds and hope that they improve ahead of Sunday’s green flag. If nothing changes, we may have to spectate as pure race fans instead of provoking betting interest. I never intend to withhold from betting action but I am also not going to be ignorant when value is non-existent. Therefore, I am currently waiting to see how qualifying unfolds and if current odds adjust to decide if any bets will be added for this event.

2019 Chevrolet Silverado 250 Optimal Lineup

*TBD after qualifying*

2019 Chevrolet Silverado 250 Race Picks

*Final*

H2H Match-Ups

Brett Moffitt -135 over Ross Chastain (3 units)