2019 Camping World 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday June 30th, 3:16PM (EST) at Chicagoland Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

On Sunday the Monster Energy Cup Series steps into the spotlight for the first time this year on NBC Sports with the running of the Camping World 400 at Chicagoland Speedway. If you are a fan of old school racing, tomorrow’s Camping World 400 should be a treat. Chicagoland Speedway never disappoints because it is the perfect combination of everything a 1.5 mile track should offer with a rough and bumpy surface, low grip, high tire wear, and multiple grooves of racing between the very bottom of the track to inches off the outside wall. If you remember last year’s race, fans were treated to one of the most exciting finishes in recent history and we are prepared for another exciting afternoon of racing. Check out our betting expectations as we provide our 2019 Camping World 400 race picks for Chicagoland!

Earlier today, Austin Dillon earned his 3rd pole of the season by posting a lap of 176.263mph. Qualifying results were a bit all over the place. Because of impound qualifying, teams were in their official race setups meaning cars that were trimmed out definitely had more single lap speed. However, that does not mean those cars will race well. Therefore, we should put very little significance towards the qualifying results seen this afternoon. Instead, we will put our focus on the better driving talents as their skills will definitely be put to the test on Sunday. Additionally, we will focus on the teams/cars that have shown strong long run potential because long run speed is extremely important at Chicagoland Speedway with the amount of fall off in lap times over the course of green flag runs.

The good news is that qualifying results have several contenders starting towards the back which could bring some betting value to the table. Guys like Brad Keselowski, Kyle Larson, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr, and Joey Logano all starting outside the top 10. All of the drivers in that particular group have excellent Chicagoland resumes and are obviously among the top names in the sport. Also it is worth noting that the starting lineup for Sunday’s Camping World 400 is not official. Teams must still past pre-race inspection Sunday morning and if anyone fails their initial attempt; they will have to start at the back. So that may be something to keep an eye on during the early hours on Sunday. For tomorrow’s race, I think we can take some close observations to our practice data which is provided below and combine that information with a few key handicapping angles to find the drivers to target on Sunday. So let’s get things started.

Camping World 400 Practice Data

*Top 10 best 15 lap consecutive average

	Avg. Speed (MPH)
Kevin Harvick	172.92
Alex Bowman	172.78
Jimmie Johnson	172.76
Chase Elliott	172.53
Kyle Larson	172.42
Kurt Busch	172.42
Joey Logano	172.35
Denny Hamlin	172.26
Kyle Busch	172.21
Daniel Suarez	171.92

*Top 10 best overall average speed (all laps)

	Avg. Speed (MPH)	Laps
Denny Hamlin	168.331	49
Kyle Busch	167.198	46
Chase Elliott	166.767	56
Joey Logano	166.592	49
Matt Tift	166.058	40
Brad Keselowski	166.023	54
Kyle Larson	164.565	48
Ty Dillon	164.359	51
Kurt Busch	164.341	56
Michael McDowell	163.982	26

If you consider the practice data, loop data, overall form, long run speed, and collectively the entire handicapping spectrum, then I think Kevin Harvick has earned the right to be called the overall favorite for Sunday. A lot of people are giving the #4 team criticism for failing to win through the first 16 races but the #4 team has still been strong. It’s not like Harvick has not contended for wins and I believe they have been making steps in the right direction. However, I also believe there is a healthy supply of contenders that deserve attention for Sunday as well. Several of the popular names showed strength in Happy Hour including the likes of Denny Hamlin, Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, and even Chase Elliott. I am still a bit skeptical on Larson. Historically, Chicagoland has been one of Larson’s best tracks and he was involved in that exciting last lap battle against Kyle Busch just one year ago. Larson’s driving style is suited for Chicagoland but historically he has made the most of his gains on the top side of the track. My concern for Sunday is that this new package that includes a lot of downforce may not be best tailored for this type of driving style. I wish I had more time to explain my concerns in-depth but I remain skeptical of Larson on Sunday despite many people thinking he will be among the main favorites.

In terms of who we should target among the favorites, I believe Denny Hamlin and the Team Penske teammates of Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano will be a force to be reckoned with. Hamlin had the best overall average in final practice and has shown excellent long run speed throughout the season. Hamlin owns a recent win at Chicagoland in 2015 and has finished inside the top 7 in each appearance since 2014. Meanwhile, Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano have both been excellent at Chicagoland Speedway in recent years. Keselowski has posted 8 straight top 10 finishes that includes 2 victories meanwhile Logano has racked up 5 straight finishes of 8th or better. I believe it is worth noting that Keselowski participated in a tire test at Chicagoland back in early May along with a group of Ford teams. GoodYear has brought a completely brand new tire code this week so I would expect Team Penske to be among the benefactors to that change.

If you are wondering about the red hot talent of Martin Truex Jr, I believe his driving style matches up perfectly for Chicagoland Speedway which has been proven with 2 victories in his last 3 Chicagoland starts. However, I did not see the speed from the #19 team on Saturday to garner the betting attention that would be needed for a heavy favorite like Truex. I had similar sentiments for Kyle Busch even though I thought the #18 was better in practices. However, it was not good enough to warrant the betting value that Busch will be listed ahead of tomorrow’s event. Therefore, I am going to pass on the JGR brigade aside from Hamlin who I took at openers whom still provides the best value of the group!

Drivers to Fade

One of my favorite drivers to fade for Sunday includes the pole sitter Austin Dillon. Dillon earned his 3rd pole of the season earlier today at Chicagoland but those pole wins have not been an indicator of success on Sunday. In fact, Dillon has only finished inside the top 10 once in his prior 5 poles and that was back in 2014 in the Daytona 500. I think the #3 car benefited from impound qualifying along with a trimmed out setup that is good for single lap speed. However, that will not be good for the race and I will be looking for opportunities to fade Dillon in the correct match-ups as I expect the #3 car to struggle to find long run speed that Chicagoland Speedway demands.

Other strong fade candidates include the likes of Clint Bowyer and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. For Stenhouse, the fade is primarily based on history. Stenhouse has failed to crack the top 15 in his last 5 Chicagoland starts and has posted finishes of 18th (Atlanta) and 16th (Richmond) at the other 2 tracks we have raced at this season with significant tire wear. The #17 has not looked great this weekend and I believe his style is not suited for optimizing long run speed. For Bowyer, I was not planning on fading Bowyer originally despite rather mediocre career stats at Chicagoland. However, the #14 has not looked sharp this weekend and reportedly struggled with handling issues. After Bowyer got tires for his last run in Happy Hour, his lap times fell off sharply after about 8 laps. Therefore, the #14 is obviously struggling with some issues and I don’t think they found many answers on Saturday.

Camping World 300 fantasy racing and betting dark horses

If you are looking for drivers to target in H2H match-ups or potentially find a few fantasy gems, let me discuss a few drivers that deserve some attention on Sunday. One of my favorite dark horses for the Camping World 300 includes the #88 of Alex Bowman. Bowman was really strong in practices and the same could be said for all of the Hendrick Motorsports cars. Jimmie Johnson had one of his best practice sessions of the season and Chase Elliott showed some real strength as well. I believe Elliott is a sneaky pick for the outright win but I think he is a little too good to be labeled a dark horse. Instead, Bowman deserves the dark horse title. He has been good on the 1.5 mile tracks this year and showed excellent long run speed in Happy Hour with the 2nd best 15 lap averages behind Kevin Harvick. Therefore, I believe the #88 is a great driver to select in both match-ups and for fantasy purposes.

In the fantasy realm, I really like the value that Chris Buescher brings to lineups at a mere price tag of just $6,800. Buescher has put together the best string of finishes in his Cup Series career and will be starting from the 28th position at a track where driver input can make a lot of ground. Daniel Suarez is another driver that is high on my list in terms of value. Saurez has a $7,400 price tag and is starting from the 29th position. If you look at Suarez’s body of work this year, he has been really solid. He posted finishes of 10th at Atlanta, 3rd at Texas, and has not finished worse than 18th on a 1.5 mile layout all year. Therefore, I feel like both Buescher and Suarez will bring solid fantasy value to all lineups on Sunday.

In terms of fantasy favorites, I like Kevin Harvick as an anchor for most lineups. I really think this could be the race where the #4 team seals the deal and he has an opportunity to get out front early from the 3rd starting position. However, I think there are numerous options among the favorites. Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson are cheaper options that have excellent Chicagoland Speedway resumes. Logano and Keselowski are starting outside the top 10 which increases their value. Hamlin is lurking in a potential spoiler spot. Needless to say, I don’t want to hammer down any single options. I think tomorrow’s race will likely have some strategy or luck involved towards the end of the race that mixes things up. Therefore, tomorrow’s race may benefit from multiple fantasy lineups where you limit the single driver exposure and even then you will probably need a little luck to fall your way. My advice would be to take advantage of the lower tier options in terms of value then mix things up among the favorites.

Draftkings Camping World 400 Optimal Lineup

2019 Camping World 400 Race Picks

*Final

Chase Elliott +900 (1 unit)
Joey Logano +1500 (.75 unit)
Denny Hamlin +1980 (.75 unit) *early play
Alex Bowman +4500 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Kevin Harvick +250 wins Camping World 400
Ryan Newman +155 over William Byron
Risking 1.25 units to win: +990

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Joey Logano -135 over Clint Bowyer (2 units)
Ryan Blaney -110 over Aric Almirola (2 units)
Alex Bowman -115 over Jimmie Johnson (2 units) *early play
Denny Hamlin +150 over Chase Elliott (1 unit)
Denny Hamlin +300 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
Alex Bowman +400 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)