2019 Camping World 300 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Saturday June 29th, 3:46PM (EST) at Chicagoland Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

On Saturday, the Xfinity Series returns from a short hiatus when the green flag waves for the Camping World 300 at Chicagoland Speedway. Before the off week, Christopher Bell scored his season leading 4th victory most recently at Iowa. Bell has been the leader of the “Big 3” which also entails the talents of Tyler Reddick and Cole Custer. Collectively the Big 3 have scored 8 straight victories in the Xfinity Series this season and they will look to keep the trend going on Saturday. However in order to keep that trend intact, the Big 3 will have to hold off Joey Logano and others at a tough Chicagoland Speedway. Find out our thoughts as we breakdown tomorrow’s race and provide our 2019 Camping World 300 race picks!

For the first time in several weeks, I actually feel like we may see a winner come outside of the Big 3 which is extremely surprising because I have not felt that way in a while. I consider Chicagoland Speedway a drivers track that favors long run speed. Historically Christopher Bell and Tyler Reddick have suffered on tracks with high tire wear which I attribute to their driving styles. Cole Custer has been much better overall on the tracks with heavy wear and he actually appeared to be the best of the Big 3 in Friday’s two practice sessions. Custer actually posted the best 10 lap averages in both sessions. Reddick was fast but did not quite have the same level of long run speed. So if I had to rank the Big 3 going into Saturday, I would probably go Custer, Reddick, and Bell at this point.

However, I think we have plenty of talent outside of the Big 3 that will warrant serious betting attention. Obviously, Joey Logano is the most skilled driver in tomorrow’s field. The defending Cup Series champion has 2 Chicagoland Speedway victories in the Xfinity Series stemming from two different teams with Joe Gibbs Racing (2009) and most recently with Team Penske (2013). Logano is an excellent talent at these low grip tracks and I can only imagine he will be a factor on Saturday despite having rather mediocre practice sessions on Friday. Logano actually stayed on old tires longer than most drivers during final practice so we did not get the best gauge of the #12 car’s speed. I would expect Logano to be strong but they definitely did not have overwhelming lap times on Friday.

Another driver that I expect to be a factor that also owns 2 Chicagoland Speedway victories includes the #7 of Justin Allgaier. Allgaier has a 2011 victory on his resume and another as recently as 2017. More importantly Allgaier falls into that group of drivers that usually performs really well on long run demanding tracks. In practices earlier today, I thought the #7 was really solid and that could be a good sign because Allgaier normally does not practice well. Instead, Allgaier was 4th in overall average speed and looked to be among the top cars from an observational standpoint on the last run on new tires in Happy Hour. Therefore, the 7 car deserves consideration as a legitimate dark horse.

Drivers to Fade

After practices concluded on Friday, I was pretty confident that at least two drivers were worthy of fading going into Saturday which included the likes of John Hunter Nemechek and Noah Gragson. I was anticipating fading Gragson before the week started because he is another driver that does not typically perform well at layouts like Chicagoland. I just wanted to wait to make sure the #9 did not unload extremely well to change my mind. Instead, the #9 struggled pretty bad throughout Friday’s practices and seemed to get worse as the laps were laid down. Therefore, I will definitely be looking to fade John Hunter if I can find the appropriate match-ups.

For John Hunter Nemechek, I was not necessarily looking to fade him before practices but after watching the #23 in both practices; something is just off with the speed in that car. Even on old tires, John Hunter was well off the pace and rarely had any good laps that were on par with the top 10 cars. Nemechek has never run an Xfinity Series car at Chicagoland but does have a win in the Truck Series so I highly doubt that it is a track familiarity issue. I just simply think the team is off on speed and needs some serious overnight changes to even get back into the ballgame. Therefore, I will likewise be looking for opportunities to fade the #23 car.

	Avg. Speed	Laps
Cole Custer	170.70	33
Zane Smith	170.20	21
Austin Cindric	170.19	21
Justin Allgaier	170.18	33
Tyler Reddick	169.89	26
Chase Briscoe	169.82	35
Christopher Bell	169.76	21
Ross Chastain	169.49	25
Brandon Jones	169.33	31
Riley Herbst	169.22	25
Joey Logano	169.02	31
Justin Haley	168.37	34
Noah Gragson	168.37	40
John Hunter	166.62	29

Draftkings and H2H targets

I will post my official Draftkings lineup tomorrow after qualifying in the section below. As of now, I would like to point out a few drivers that should hold some fantasy racing value or perhaps value in the H2H match-ups department. One of the names at the top of that list includes the #8 car with Zane Smith. I am starting to become a fan of Smith as he continues to impress with each start. The recently turned 20 year old has finished in the top 10 in each of his last 3 starts with JR Motorsports with finishes of 6th, 9th, and a career best 5th most recently at Iowa. Smith and the #8 team were once again solid in practices on Friday and I think have another great opportunity to score another top 10 finish. From a Draftkings perspective at just an $8,000 asking price, I think Smith provides great value for tomorrow’s Camping World 300.

Ross Chastain also provides some upside tomorrow as he joins Kaulig Racing for the 3rd time this year. In Chastain’s previous two attempts with Kaulig Racing, he did not get the best chance to showcase his talent considering both appearances were at superspeedways. However, Chastain will get a chance to race in better equipment than we have seen him in thus far this year in the Xfinity Series. We all know that Chastain is a great talent and he has produced top 15 finishes in 4 straight races. A top 10 is definitely attainable on Saturday and I will be keeping a close eye on where the #10 car qualifies to determine if he is worthy of fantasy consideration.

If you want to find a flier option for Draftkings, consider B.J McLeod in the #15 machine. At just $5,800, McLeod is one of the cheapest drivers on the board yet has posted top 20 finishes in 3 straight races. Again I am hoping McLeod bombs qualifying to provide some added place-differential value but I still believe the #15 is one of the best flier options for tomorrow’s event. Lastly, another driver that may provide sneaky value in both fantasy and H2H match-ups includes the #22 of Austin Cindric. I can never seem to predict Cindric correctly so take this advice for what it’s worth. However, the #22 looked a lot better than normal in practices today. The #22 team unloaded well and were fast from the very first run to the end of Happy Hour. If I can find Cindric as an underdog, I may try to use him to setup a potential parlay opportunity. I did not get any parlays to move forward from the Truck Series event and will be posting a few more on Saturday because I think they will be needed on Sunday. Therefore we should take a chance on any live dogs for parlay opportunities.

Draftkings Camping World 300 Optimal Lineup

2019 Camping World 300 Race Picks

*Final

Cole Custer +660 (1.25 units) *early play
Christopher Bell +670 (1 unit)
Ross Chastain +2000 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Joey Logano +185 wins Camping World 300
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

Tyler Reddick +135 over Cole Custer
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Zane Smith -125 over John Hunter Nemechek (3 units)
Ross Chastain -125 over Riley Herbst (3 units)
Chase Briscoe -115 over Austin Cindric (2 units) *early play