2019 Bojangles Southern 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday September 1st, 6:18PM (EST) at Darlington Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

NASCAR’s throwback weekend continues on Sunday with the running of the infamous Bojangles’ Southern 500 at Darlington Raceway. Earlier today, William Byron scored his 4th pole of the season with a lap of 172.487mph. While Byron seeks the 1st win of his career on Sunday, the Lady in Black does not typically favor 1st time winners nor inexperience. Darlington is the ultimate driver’s challenge where experience and driving talent continuously emerge at the front of the field. On Sunday, NASCAR’s best attempt to tackle the track labeled “Too Tough To Tame” to seek one of the most prestigious trophies in NASCAR. As we prepare for Sunday’s race, it’s time to breakdown our expectations as we provide our 2019 Bojangles’ Southern 500 race picks!

There will be plenty of attention on the throwback paint schemes and history surrounding the sport this weekend. After all that is one of the reasons the entire throwback concept is so popular and entertaining. From a betting standpoint, I also think it is important to mention the history at Darlington. When looking back through the history of this historic venue, few drivers standout in terms of dominance. Aside from Jimmie Johnson’s 3 victories, Denny Hamlin is the only driver with multiple wins among all active drivers. In the last 12 races at Darlington, there have been 11 different winners with Hamlin being the only multiple winner during that stretch. What does this information tell us? I simply believe it paints a clear picture on how hard it is to win at Darlington. I mentioned earlier that the top drivers emerge in this race based on the sheer talent it takes to be fast at this particular track; however to win drivers and pit crews must be flawless, the car must survive the brutal tire wear, drivers must keep the car off the wall, and ultimately you must have a little luck go your way as well. Because of the difficulty it takes to win at this historic venue, we must consider the elevated risk in our predictions and apply that knowledge towards how we assemble our betting tickets.

Before the week began, odds for the Southern 500 were simply atrocious and I am anticipating odds will remain relatively brutal following qualifying earlier today which did not feature many surprises. Perhaps the only surprises were the poor qualifying efforts of Martin Truex Jr (19th) and Kyle Busch (33rd). Unfortunately, I don’t expect odds to be much different which means we will have to be sharp with our predictions. Before we discuss Friday’s practices, I would say Denny Hamlin is one of the safest bets for drivers that should contend Sunday evening. Hamlin has been the hottest driver in the Cup Series in recent weeks with 5 straight finishes of 3rd or better including wins at Pocono and Bristol. More importantly, Darlington happens to be one of Hamlin’s best tracks. We mentioned the 2 victories previously and Hamlin also earned his 6th Xfinity Series win earlier today when he drove a backup car to victory lane in the Sport Clips Haircuts VFW 200. Hamlin’s car failed post race inspection so he will not be credited with the win. The good news the bets are still graded as winners with 5Dimes which is another reason why I promote them each week as our primary book. Either way, the #11 remains a huge threat ahead of Sunday’s event.

In terms of practices on Friday, let’s just get straight to the point. Kyle Larson was fast. Correction, Kyle Larson was incredibly fast in both practices on Friday. I was originally skeptical of Larson’s position as the overall favorite at opening odds this week. After all, Larson is winless in his last 70 races despite leading 284 laps in this race last year. However, Larson proved on Friday that he is the undeniable favorite ahead of Sunday’s green flag as his lap times were unparalleled. On long runs, the #42 was easily 2-3 tenths better than the field which may be a conservative effort. As a result, I will be looking to close out my parlay with Denny Hamlin winning today’s Xfinity Series race with Larson once parlay options are allowed on Sunday. The other drivers that I thought looked best in practices included Kyle Busch and Erik Jones is were are judging purely on lap times. I would also state that Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, and Martin Truex Jr were all within striking distance as well among the top contenders ahead of Sunday’s green flag.

Drivers to Target

If qualifying scared you on Saturday, then rest assured qualifying means absolutely nothing. Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr both had poor qualifying efforts. Busch’s lap was actually due to an engine issue. The #18 team chose to change engines after qualifying and will start from the rear. However, let’s not forget this was impound qualifying meaning cars qualified in race setups. Therefore, one lap speed is quite meaningless and most teams are focused on the long run speed. So basically, don’t worry about qualifying results or the starting lineup when basing your decisions.

I personally still like Busch and believe he is a better H2H target now due to the fact he will have to start from the rear of the field. One of my other favorite targets is a familiar target in the #20 of Erik Jones. I have featured Jones frequently in recent weeks as a driver to target and will continue to do so with the speed this #20 team is showing. Before the races at Michigan and Bristol, Jones had posted 4 straight finishes of 4th or better. While the #20 team did not get the quality finishes over the last 2 races, the speed is still prominent and Erik Jones has the driving style that provokes good long run speed at a track like Darlington.

If you are looking for a few under the radar targets for betting or fantasy purposes, I believe everyone should put focus towards Ryan Newman and Alex Bowman. Bowman did not run many laps in Happy Hour which may not provide the opportunity for his name to be elevated on the lap averages charts plus he started Happy Hour on old tires. However, Bowman has been solid since unloading on Friday and I believe the #88 team has a borderline top 10 car which should be good enough for most match-ups. Meanwhile, Ryan Newman is a guy that I would consider despite what practice times may suggest. Newman has posted Top 10 finishes in 7 of the last 10 races at Darlington and that includes recent years with inferior equipment. Newman has stated on several occasions that Darlington is his favorite track and he has consistently exceeded expectations on this tough surface.

Drivers to Fade

From a historical standpoint, Clint Bowyer is a driver that should be given fade consideration every time we arrive at Darlington. Bowyer has just 1 career top 10 finish at Darlington which came back in his 2nd appearance with the Lady in Black back in 2007. Since that 9th place finish, Bowyer has failed to crack the top 10 in each race and failed to crack the top 15 in the last 4 races at Darlington. I could elaborate on the reasons why Bowyer struggles at Darlington but I do not want to get too technical. Let’s just agree that the track “Too Tough To Tame” definitely applies to the driver of the #14 and after a decent 13th place qualifying effort, Bowyer has fade value.

Another driver that I believe we should fade includes the #48 of Jimmie Johnson. Johnson’s lap times were not terrible on Friday but they were not great either. The important thing to note about the #48 team is that they have been in a severely critical spot in recent weeks trying to make the Chase on points yet each week they have failed to deliver. The team is lacking speed and Johnson is not performing behind the wheel. There is just no other way to put it at this point in time. As a result, I don’t think this is the type of race where Johnson can turn things around. This team would have a much better opportunity at Martinsville or a short track. The #48 team is struggling on the bigger surfaces and I don’t think the conditions Saturday night (which will likely be extremely slick unless it rains) will help matters. Therefore, I believe we can be pretty confident with fading the #48 once again.

2019 Draftkings Bojangles Southern 500 Optimal Lineup

2019 Bojangles’ Southern 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Martin Truex Jr +1350 (1 unit)
Denny Hamlin +750 (1.25 units)
Erik Jones +1800 (.75 unit)

H2H Match-Ups

Denny Hamlin +185 wins Sport Clips Haircuts VFW 200 (graded win)
Kyle Larson +400 wins Bojangles Southern 500
Risking 1 unit to win: +1325

Kyle Busch +575 wins Bojangles Southern 500
Austin Dillon +120 over Aric Almirola
Risking 1 unit to win: +1385

H2H Match-Ups

Denny Hamlin -110 over Kyle Larson (2 units) *early play
Kevin Harvick -115 over Joey Logano (2 units) *early play
William Byron -105 over Clint Bowyer (2 units)
Erik Jones +125 over Chase Elliott (2 units)
Ryan Newman +1800 finishes Top 5 (.5 unit)