2019 Bluegreen Vacations 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday November 10th, 2:40PM (EST) at ISM Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

With just one race remaining before the season finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway, NASCAR’s playoff drivers will have one final race to secure their opportunity to fight for a championship. Martin Truex and Kevin Harvick have secured their championship opportunities with victories at Martinsville and Texas. Kyle Busch and Joey Logano currently sit above the cutoff line in the standings which would decide the final two drivers to make the Championship 4 if things ended today. However, everything could change with tomorrow’s running of the Bluegreen Vacations 500 at ISM Raceway. As championship hopes hang in the balance, we take this opportunity to provide our thoughts on how things will unfold at Phoenix on Sunday with our 2019 Bluegreen Vacations 500 race picks!

Earlier today, Kyle Busch earned the pole for the Bluegreen Vacations 500 with a lap of 140.116mph. Surprisingly, it was Busch’s 1st pole of the season and it comes at a great time. Busch currently sits 3rd in the point standings and if he can stay upfront to earn quality stage points early in tomorrow’s race; it could be the ticket to the championship. Typically when Phoenix shows up on the calendar, bettors quickly gravitate to Kevin Harvick who owns the most wins (9) all-time at Phoenix including a ridiculous run of 6 wins in 8 races from 2012 to 2016. However, it may be surprising to know that “Rowdy” has actually been the best driver at ISM Raceway in recent years producing an elite average driver rating of 129.5 over the past 5 races in the Valley of the Sun. Harvick’s average rating during that same time period ranks 2nd at 111.2. Chase Elliott, Denny Hamlin, and Martin Truex are the only other drivers that have an average rating of 100 or greater during that same period.

With those numbers in mind, Busch obviously has to be given some serious consideration ahead of Sunday’s race even with the fact the #18 team has struggled in recent weeks. Those recent struggles are relatively surprising when you consider the speed that Truex and Hamlin have shown in recent races so perhaps a quick turnaround would not be too surprising for this #18 group. The good news for Busch fans is that Phoenix is a track where the driver can make a lot of ground. To win at the Cup Series level, you are always going to need a good car but some tracks definitely provide more opportunity from behind the wheel. ISM Raceway definitely qualifies as one of those tracks.

Practice Observations

In practices on Friday, it was teammate Denny Hamlin that stood out the most among the competition. Hamlin led in nearly every category including 10, 15, and 20 lap averages. When mapping out lap times, Hamlin’s lap times were most impressive at about 11-12 laps into his long runs when compared against the lap times of Kyle Busch, Martin Truex, and Kevin Harvick. Races at Phoenix are typically shorter than other venues with 312 miles scheduled for each event. However, long run speed is still extremely important and will likely be the key ingredient to success on Sunday.

In terms of long run speed, I also liked what I saw from the Team Penske cars. For whatever reason, the Team Penske cars gave up a little take off speed but showed excellent long run speed. Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano were both posting some of the best laps in the field after 15 laps which could be a good sign going into Sunday’s event. Chase Elliott owns the 2nd best average finishing position (10.14) in the Cup Series behind Kevin Harvick and appeared to have solid speed once again in practices. Elliott did not have ‘elite’ speed compared to the leaders but he was not far off. Looking down the field further, I would also mention the likes of Matt DiBenedetto and Austin Dillon who both greatly exceeded expectations on the stopwatch compared to expectations going into the weekend.

Betting and Fantasy Targets

Though I believe Hamlin may be the best driver in terms of practice observations, I personally believe Ryan Blaney has sharp betting potential due to the fact that he has turned into a really good driver at ISM Raceway. Along with the practice observations above, Blaney captured the pole back in the spring and led 94 laps to bring home a 3rd place finish. In this race last year, Blaney also kept the #12 car at the front of the field all afternoon before suffering mechanical issues. Either way, the driver of the #12 is trending in the right direction in terms of recent performance, track history, and practice observations. As a result, I believe Blaney should be targeted in both H2H match-ups and fantasy rosters.

I mentioned both Matt DiBenedetto and Austin Dillon above as drivers that looked strong in both of Friday’s practices. Neither driver has an excellent resume at Phoenix but I believe their starting positions still provide some positive place-differential potential. Another driver that could easily exceed expectations on Sunday includes the #42 of Kyle Larson. In the opening practice on Friday, Larson was likely the best car in the field and while they faded a bit in Happy Hour; the #42 has proved to be fast all weekend. Larson’s recent history at Phoenix has included 3 different finishes of 3rd or better in the last 6 starts. Larson is one of those drivers that is in a must-win situation which is good from a handicapping perspective because the team will not be conservative in their strategy calls.

Drivers to Fade

Over the last two weeks, I have encouraged bettors to fade Brad Keselowski which has paid dividends and I believe that fade target is in-play again on Sunday. I am not exactly sure what is going on with the #2 team. Perhaps they are experimenting for 2020 but either way they have not shown speed. Keselowski has never been really great at Phoenix and he was the only Team Penske car that struggled in both practices on Friday. Therefore until something changes, we can keep fading the #2 car. Another driver that I am also considering fading simply based off track performance includes the #14 of Clint Bowyer. Statistically, Phoenix is one of Bowyer’s worst tracks with a measly 18.71 average finishing position and just two top 5 finishes in 28 career starts. In his last 12 starts at ISM Raceway, Bowyer has posted just a single top 10 finish making him a really good fade candidate for Sunday’s Bluegreen Vacations 500.

2019 Bluegreen Vacations 500 Optimal Lineup

2019 Bluegreen Vacations 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Kevin Harvick +800 (1 unit)
Chase Elliott +1200 (1 unit)
Ryan Blaney +1450 (1 unit)
Kyle Larson +2750 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

John Hunter Nemechek +160 over Noah Gragson (win)
Denny Hamlin +215 wins Bluegreen Vacations 500
Risking 1 unit to win: +715

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Kyle Larson -140 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Chris Buescher +160 over Ryan Newman (2 units)
Ryan Blaney +220 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)