2019 B&L Transport 170 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Predictions
Saturday August 10th, 3:04PM (EST) at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Shortly after the Truck Series concludes at Michigan in the Corrigan Oil 200, the Xfinity Series will take center stage for another week of road course racing at the Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course for the running of the B&L Transport 170. Last week, Austin Cindric flexed his road course skills by passing AJ Allmendinger in the final laps at Watkins Glen to score his 1st Xfinity Series victory. This week Cindric will be the heavy favorite to go after another victory when the engines fire for the B&L Transport 170. However for Cindric to pull off his 2nd straight victory, he will have to hold off a talented field of road course talent. Take a look as we breakdown Saturday’s racing at Mid-Ohio and provide our 2019 B&L Transport 170 race picks!

When I compare most of the road course venues in NASCAR, Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course is one of my favorites. The track has a pair of big left-hand turns (turns 1 & 5) which are unorthodox to other road course tracks. Mid-Ohio also has some extremely long straightaways for a road course venue but also has some really heavy braking zones that setup passing opportunities. In fact, the numerous heavy braking zones are the epitome of prime layouts for a road course venue and that is why we typically see the road course talents shine in this race. In the 6 prior events at Mid-Ohio, the likes of AJ Allmendinger, Chris Buescher, Regan Smith, Justin Marks, Sam Hornish Jr, and Justin Allgaier have visited victory lane. All of those drivers are well-known for their road course/open wheel talent and that is something that should be kept in mind ahead of Saturday’s B&L Transport 170.

If you look at the entry list for tomorrow’s event, there are plenty of talented road course threats including former winners AJ Allmendinger and Regan Smith. Additionally there are a few veteran road course talents in other part-time rides that will be entertaining to watch. Possibly the best unknown name that will be participating on Saturday will be Jack Hawksworth who is a former open wheel talent that currently competes in the WeatherTech Sportscar Championship. Hawksworth will be in the #18 car for JGR and he has looked solid thus far by posting the fastest lap in Happy Hour on Friday. Hawksworth should feel pretty confident at Mid-Ohio because he scored a victory at the track back in May in the WeatherTech Sportscar Championship Series. Hawksworth will look to make a big impression in his 1st start in a stockcar and he is in the equipment to make a quality run.

Before we get too caught up in the road course talents participating tomorrow, I think we need to state the obvious. Several of these drivers like Hawksworth and Regan Smith have not been in a stockcar in some time. At least Regan Smith has a background in NASCAR but he has also been out of action as a full-time driver for nearly 3 years. AJ Allmendinger is the only part-time driver that has really proved that he is capable of winning judging by his two performances at Daytona and last week at Watkins Glen. Therefore, the most likely scenario is that another full-time driver will visit victory lane on Saturday so that is where our betting action will focus on Saturday.

Drivers to Target

Because of the numerous road course talents that are participating on Saturday, I believe some of the Xfinity Series’ top talents are being foolishly overlooked. Aside from Austin Cindric who deserves to be in the overall favorite position, Cole Custer and Christopher Bell are definitely live threats for Saturday. Bell had an excellent run last week at Watkins Glen with a 2nd place finish. Despite being overlooked again this week, Bell was among the fastest cars in practice. In fact, the #20 was 2nd in 5 lap averages behind Austin Cindric and had a really strong overall average as well. Meanwhile, Cole Custer was not far behind with an equally fast #00 car. I actually took Custer at his 11-1 opening odds and he is currently listed at half that price at just +550. So hopefully if you planned on betting on the #00, you followed our early suggestion and got the best number.

Either way, I feel like Bell and Custer are excellent bets on Saturday. If you can find Christopher Bell in match-ups against anyone aside from the #22 and #00 at decent odds, I would encourage action on the #20 car. If you are looking for deeper options in the field, I think it would be rather foolish to completely overlook Justin Allgaier. I feel like I have wasted a lot of units on Allgaier this year but he is the defending winner of this race. More importantly that team probably has a better opportunity at winning at Mid-Ohio than they do on a traditional oval judging by their current performance. Allgaier’s odds are pretty generous at the moment so he does provide some value and positive ROI. One additional name that I will throw out for betting match-ups is the driver of the #51 car in Jeremy Clements. Clements has finished in the top 15 in 7 of the last 8 races and he is an undervalued road course talent. Therefore Clements could be a driver to target in low-tier match-ups as a relatively sharp play.

Drivers to Fade

I don’t have a very long list of drivers that I am open to fading on Saturday. After all, road course racing can provoke some unfortunate circumstances where a driver gets knocked off course and loses valuable track position. Therefore when I decide to fade certain drivers at road course venues, I want to be sure that they are strong fades and cannot steal a bet by simply gaining track position. A pair of drivers that fall into that category include both Regan Smith and Brandon Jones. Regan Smith is my preferable fade because I believe his name exceeds his potential for Saturday. Smith’s lack of seat time in recent years was evident in both practices today. The #8 car was well off the pace with nearly every trip on the racing surface and if I can find any match-ups fading Smith at decent odds, I will be in full fade mode. Lastly, I think Brandon Jones is also a good fade. Not only is Jones not known for road course skills but his finishes at Mid-Ohio have been abysmal with just 1 top 15 finish in 4 starts. Therefore, the #19 should be considered as fade target in match-ups as well.

2019 Draftkings B&L Transport 170 Optimal Lineup

2019 B&L Transport 170 Race Picks

*Final*

Cole Custer +1100 (1 unit) *early play
Justin Allgaier +1400 (.75 unit)

Two Team Parlays

Austin Cindric +185 wins B&L Transport 170
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

Christopher Bell +475 wins B&L Transport 170
Team 2 – Open
Risking .5 unit to win: TBD

Tyler Reddick +155 over Regan Smith
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1 unit to win: TBD

H2H Match-Ups

Justin Allgaier -145 over Regan Smith (2 units)
Noah Gragson +125 over Justin Haley (2 units)
Jeremy Clements -120 over Brandon Jones (2 units)