2019 Big Machine Vodka 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday September 8th, 2:24PM (EST) at Indianapolis Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

NASCAR’s Monster Energy Cup Series returns to the infamous Indianapolis Motor Speedway on Sunday for the running of the Big Machine Vodka 400. Formerly known as the Brickyard 400, this race remains one of NASCAR’s marquee events and is home to the most prestigious venue in motorsports. In previous years, the likes of Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch have been the most successful drivers at Indy with 6 combined victories. However, the Brickyard has also housed numerous upset winners in recent years including Paul Menard’s 2011 win, Ryan Newman’s 2013 win, and Kasey Kahne’s 2017 victory. Needless to say, anything can happen and we take this time to discuss who has the best opportunity to ‘kiss the bricks’ on Sunday. Take a look as we provide our 2019 Big Machine Vodka 400 race picks for Indianapolis!

I am kind of shocked that NASCAR scheduled this ‘prestigious’ race on the opening weekend of the NFL. Not only is it a direct conflict of interest but Indianapolis has struggled to produce a quality racing product over the last few years. The common theme in recent races has been “clean air” which coincides with track position along with the difficulty of running cars down from behind because of the negative aerodynamic effects on trailing vehicles. Unfortunately, none of those characteristics are expected to change under this new package and honestly things could be even worse. I have avoided talking about this new package for a while now. However, less horsepower will only intensify the difficulty drivers will have trying to pass on Sunday and will unimaginably make track position even more important.

One of the unique differences this week is that the Cup Series will qualify on the same day as tomorrow’s race with qualifying commencing at 10:35AM (EST). Afterwards, cars will be impounded after already passing tech inspection on Saturday. The rare same day qualifying format should not complicate things too much. However, I believe it is important to point out because pit road stalls have already been assigned according to points. As a result, I think it is important to point out that Kyle Busch has a big advantage from the #1 pit stall in a race that is so heavily dependent on track position. So if anything, Busch is the biggest benefactor in tomorrow’s format based on the #1 pit stall assignment.

Practice Observations

Ultimately, I believe tomorrow’s race will be a difficult handicapping event. Because track position is so extremely important and teams are always attempting strategy calls on pit road, this race can be frustrating to predict. Still if we are to discuss how cars looked in both practices on Saturday, I would state the likes of Kyle Busch, Kurt Busch, and Brad Keselowski were probably the best cars in terms of speed. Kurt Busch actually jumps out as a driver that could provide upside in betting value. The #1 car was extremely fast at Darlington last week and they have consistently been at the top of the charts since unloading this weekend. Perhaps the #1 team has found some extra speed and that is worth jumping on early before the trend establishes itself.

Likewise, Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski also had really strong speed. As stated earlier, Kyle Busch has been masterful at Indianapolis in recent years with 2 wins in the last 4 races. What people may not know is that Brad Keselowski has also emerged as a top contender at the Brickyard. Keselowski is the defending winner of the Brickyard and also posted a 2nd place finish in 2017. Therefore, I feel like it is about time that Keselowski earns some respect for his skills at Indy. I also believe that Kevin Harvick should be given considerable respect as well if we are talking about track trends. Harvick currently leads all active drivers over the last 5 races at Indy with a lucrative 125.0 average driver rating. So if we are talking history, the #4 has to be in the discussion as well.

2019 Brickyard 400 dark horses

Anytime the Cup Series visits Indianapolis Motor Speedway, we should put some focus towards potential dark horses. As stated earlier, the circumstantial nature of this race provokes upsets which we have seen rather frequently in recent years. Earlier today, I thought a few dark horses emerged as possible candidates for betting action on Sunday. One of the drivers at the top of my list includes young William Byron. The #24 had really good speed in practices and I have not forgot his impressive victory in the Xfinity Series in 2017 over guys like Joey Logano, Paul Menard, and Kyle Busch. Obviously that was a different style of racing in the Xfinity Series but I also like the fact that Byron is starting to come into the driver most expected. The speed is there and the driver is getting closer to contending for victories.

By now, I don’t believe we can consider Erik Jones a dark horse after last week’s win in the Southern 500 combined with the fact the JGR cars have been phenomenal. With that being said, I will still mention his name because he is not considered a front runner in terms of betting targets. Jones and Denny Hamlin looked pretty solid in practices which could provide some fantasy benefits depending on where they qualify. As a result, I don’t believe I have any other true dark horse drivers for Sunday. I would just reiterate my thoughts on Kurt Busch because from a betting standpoint; he should have as much value as anyone outside of the heavy favorites!

2019 Big Machine Vodka 400 Race Picks

Be sure to join our forums betting contest for the Brickyard 400. It is free to join and only takes 1-2 minutes to enter. $100 prize up for grabs! Find the info here: Big Machine Vodka 400 Forums Contest

*Final

Brad Keselowski +700 (1.25 units)
Denny Hamlin +1000 (1 unit)
Joey Logano +1100 (1 unit)
Kurt Busch +1200 (.75 unit)
William Byron +3000 (.5 unit)

H2H Match-Ups

Justin Haley +145 over Austin Dillon (Xfinity win)
Kyle Busch +385 wins Big Machine Vodka 400
Risking 1 unit to win: +1088

H2H Match-Ups

William Byron -130 over Jimmie Johnson (2 units) *early play