2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Predictions
Saturday August 17th, 7:46PM (EST) at Bristol Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

One of the most exciting races in NASCAR will take place tomorrow when the Cup Series returns to Thunder Valley for the illustrious Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. Earlier today, Denny Hamlin earned his 4th career Busch Pole Award at Bristol with a lap of 129.230mph. However, qualifying results were largely influenced by the qualifying order on Friday which correlates to the traction compound at the bottom of the race track. The end result was an extremely inconsistent qualifying session that will have fast cars scattered throughout the starting line-up potentially upping the level of craziness for Saturday’s main event. We discuss all the drivers bettors should be targeting and breakdown our expectations with our 2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race picks!

I believe there are numerous guys that could potentially win tomorrow’s Bristol night race. Several of the young emerging talents in the series looked really strong in practices on Friday including the likes of Ryan Blaney, Erik Jones, and Chase Elliott. While we will certainly discuss those options in a few moments, Bristol is still Kyle Busch’s domain until proven otherwise. Busch earned his 8th victory at Bristol back in the spring despite the fact he was involved in an accident in the opening laps. The victory back in the spring marked Busch’s 3rd win in the last 4 races at Bristol with older brother Kurt winning the only other race during that time frame.

Rowdy qualified all the way back in the 31st position earlier today but that was largely due to circumstances because he drew the #1 position in qualifying. For those that missed qualifying for both Xfinity and Cup Series today, the issue was that it took the traction compound several laps to come in. On a cool surface, cars simply did not have the speed as the cars that were fortunate to go later in the session. Therefore the earlier cars went onto the track for qualifying, the worse their chances were for recording a fast lap. However, don’t let the qualifying results fool you, Busch will still be extremely strong when the green flag waves and perhaps becomes an even bigger fantasy threat from the 31st starting position.

In terms of track history, older brother Kurt is also one of the best in the Cup Series at this venue and the defending winner of the Bristol Night Race. Last year’s victory, marked Kurt’s 6th victory at the World’s Fastest Half-Mile and I would also consider the #1 a threat anytime we are at Bristol Motor Speedway. In recent races, Joey Logano and Kyle Larson have been two of the most consistent frontrunners at Bristol. In fact, both Larson and Logano have better average driver ratings than Kyle Busch, despite Busch’s 3 wins, according to loop data over the last 5 races. Surprisingly, Larson leads all drivers with 489 laps led over the last 5 races and put himself in another advantageous position after qualifying P2 earlier this afternoon. Therefore keep those big names on your radar going into Saturday night because you can never underestimate driver input at a place like Bristol which is why the top talents usually emerge at the front of the field this particular venue.

Drivers to Target

If you followed our early plays this week, we captured a ton of value with our early predictions. We got Denny Hamlin at nearly 14-1 whose odds which will likely be cut in half after winning the pole. Meanwhile guys like Ryan Blaney and Erik Jones emerged as viable threats in practices which we took early with odds in the 20-1 range. I could not be happier with our early plays and the value that was gained in those early odds. If you are still looking for the sharpest targets, I believe Ryan Blaney, Denny Hamlin, and Chase Elliott were among the best cars in practices. Blaney was clearly the best of the bunch but the #12 did blow a power steering pump at the end of Happy Hour. The good news is that there was not any damage that should have affected the speed in the #12 car and because he did not have any major mechanical changes; Blaney will get to keep his qualifying position.

After Blaney, I think our crystal ball gets more foggy. Chase Elliott was a pleasant surprise after several weeks of mediocrity. Erik Jones was really strong in practices which is not surprising considering the #20 team’s current momentum. Meanwhile guys like Martin Truex Jr and Kevin Harvick were very close on speed compared to the top lap times. I actually think Truex is one of the sharper plays going into Saturday night’s event because he is not necessarily known as a short track talent and does not really have a great resume at Bristol. Nevertheless, the #78 car was very solid in practices and he will be starting from the 2nd row which should help with the track position war that will carry on for 500 laps tomorrow evening. I know I am throwing out more names than usual this week and that is why I alluded to numerous drivers having the speed to win in the opening of this preview.

In terms of match-ups, I think finding the most probabilistic match-ups will be difficult because the majority of the drivers that I have mentioned are paired against each other. However, I will conclude by saying Truex, Elliott, and Hamlin are the names that I will be looking to leverage value in match-up situations. Joey Logano is probably another great candidate due to his success at Bristol. Logano practiced on old tires the first half of Happy Hour which provided a false illusion that the #22 was lacking speed. However, I expect the #22 to be good when the green flag waves. The critical aspect will be identifying the most advantageous match-ups with those drivers listed.

Drivers to Fade

I am not sure if anyone has realized at this point in his career but William Byron’s talent is lacking at the short tracks. I noticed that the #24 car failed to show speed in practices and that got me thinking; I don’t remember ever seeing Byron upfront at a short track in any series throughout his young career. What I found was pretty convincing. In Byron’s stockcar career, his best finish was 12th in the Xfinity Series in 2 starts at Bristol. Since joining the Cup Series, Byron has failed to crack the top 15 in all 3 prior starts. In fact if you stretch out that narrative to tracks like Dover and Martinsville that combined length/layout qualities, Byron has just 1 top 10 finish in 9 career starts with 7 of those finishes residing outside the top 15. Therefore, I believe we have found a fade angle that is not based around the speed of the car but the lack of talent behind the wheel at these particular venues. So perhaps the #24 should be on everyone’s radar for fade considerations going into Saturday’s main event.

A few other names that I will be considering in my criteria for fade targets include Clint Bowyer, Aric Almirola, and possibly Kurt Busch. Aric Almirola is perhaps my favorite choice out of that group due to the fact he will be starting in the 5th position which presents great fade value. Almirola had a good draw in his qualifying position today which he converted into a solid lap. However, I did not see any indicators in practices that would suggest the #10 car could stay at the front of the field. In fact, Bristol is one of Almirola’s worst tracks with an embarrassing 25.2 average finishing position over the last 10 races. Meanwhile, Clint Bowyer and Kurt Busch are more popular names. I think the elder Busch is obviously the most risky fade option due to his strong career at Bristol. Busch complained of being tight throughout the day on Friday which is a bad combination for Bristol. Typically you want the car to be loose early in the run because it will become more “tight” as the runs prevail. If that indicator holds true, Busch could have a long afternoon.

Lastly, Clint Bowyer is just a guy that keeps finding trouble and I think too many people are attributing the finishes to “bad luck.” In reality, this #14 team has not had great speed and has consistently been competing in the middle of the pack which is usually where you find trouble. Judging by the two races we have seen this weekend at Bristol, if you are running mid-pack then you are going to be in dangerous territory throughout the night and the #14 car has been a magnet towards trouble in 2019. The problem with Bowyer is that he does not provide the leverage opportunity like Almirola and Kurt Busch. Therefore, I would probably just avoid the #14 car in all situations and be comfortable with whatever happens.

2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race Optimal Lineup

2019 Bass Pro Shops NRA Race Picks

*Be sure to participate in our free $100 Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race contest in the forums and pass the information along to anyone you know. The more participation the better!

*Final

Denny Hamlin +1350 (1 unit) *early play
Chase Elliott +1650 (.75 unit)
Ryan Blaney +2000 (.5 unit) *early play
Kurt Busch +2100 (.5 unit) *early play
Erik Jones +2200 (.5 unit) *early play
Matt Dibenedetto +30000 (.25 unit) *early play

Team Team Parlays

Justin Allgaier +135 over Erik Jones (win from Xfinity)
Kyle Busch/Kevin Harvick +320 wins Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1100

Kyle Larson +825 wins Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race
Ryan Blaney -115 over Kurt Busch
Risking .75 unit to win: +1200

H2H Match-Ups

Denny Hamlin -110 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr +105 over Aric Almirola (2 units)
Daniel Suarez -130 over William Byron (2 units)
Ryan Blaney +235 finishes Top 5 (1 unit)
Chase Elliott +260 wins Group C (Jones, Ku. Busch, Bowyer) (1 unit)
Matt Dibenedetto +300 wins Group E (A. Dillon, Menard, Buescher) (1 unit)