2019 Auto Club 400 Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Preview
Sunday March 17th, 3:46PM (EST) at Auto Club Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Tomorrow all eyes will turn towards Southern California when NASCAR’s finest battle it out in the Auto Club 400 at Auto Club Speedway in Fontana. One of the main reasons I love racing in Fontana is because this racetrack typically exhibits the best driving talents at the front of the field. Auto Club Speedway has an extremely rugged surface that provokes significant tire wear and fall off in lap times. There are multiple grooves that allow drivers the opportunity to search for grip and the racing conditions always provide one of the biggest driving challenges in the Cup Series rivaling the likes of Darlington and Atlanta. As we prepare for this exciting display of speed and driving talent, we take the time to discuss our expectations and betting advice with our 2019 Auto Club 400 race picks!

If you missed the early on-track activities this weekend, qualifying was disastrous on Friday which has been the norm under this new rules package. All 12 cars that made it into the final round of qualifying failed to record an official lap because they were all waiting on pit road for someone to pull out. Under this new package, the lead car is basically a sitting duck because drivers must maximize the effects of the draft to get a fast lap. When everyone failed to get off pit road and back to the flag before time expired, the pole was given to Austin Dillon as result of times recorded in round 2. However it was not just the final round of qualifying that was disastrous. In the opening round, several drivers posted disappointing times which were both a result of being cut off by other drivers during their qualifying lap or simply not getting any help in the draft. So if you scroll through the starting lineup today and see names all over the place, just know that the starting positions posted in qualifying are not parallel to the fastest cars that we have seen this weekend.

Even if qualifying was a single-car format, I am not sure that single lap speed nor starting positions are very important. Auto Club Speedway has one of the oldest surfaces in NASCAR which causes extreme tire wear and fall off in lap times. During practices, lap times differentiated by more than 2 seconds from the beginning to end of runs as a result of tire wear. Considering the fact we are at a 2 mile racetrack that has high-end speed, 2 seconds is a huge difference, in speed for a single lap, when comparing old and fresh rubber. I knew the long run speed would be the premium going into the week because it’s always extremely important at Auto Club Speedway.

Because of this factor, I pulled the trigger on Martin Truex Jr on openers because the #19 team has been the best long run car on a near weekly basis this season. Truex displayed that long run speed last year when he drove the #78 to a dominating victory by leading 125 of 200 laps. Earlier today, Truex did not look outstanding in practices but honestly they never do. The #19 will also have to come from the back after a poor qualifying effort. If you did not get on Truex early, then you may find the #19 at a slightly better number and despite the practice efforts; I still have Truex high on my list because of the speed they continue to show each week on the long run. So while I cannot make the case for Truex from a practice standpoint, I still would expect the #19 to be very good on Sunday.

Likewise, I think we could make similar conclusions for the Team Penske cars because of their performance this season without even looking at practice times. However when we consider practice observations on Saturday, Team Penske stood out even more than we may have expected going into the weekend. Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, and Ryan Blaney were all extremely stout on the stopwatch. In fact they were so good and so consistent on the long run, it was truly difficult to even make a recommendation on who was the best of the group. Their lap times were so close to each other, it was downright scary. I originally thought Brad Keselowski may have had the edge over Logano but when I mapped out lap times; Ryan Blaney appeared to possibly have the best car in the entire field or at least in final practice should I say. Either way you slice it, Team Penske’s current momentum, performance, and speed off the hauler have once again proved that they are the team to beat ahead of Sunday’s green flag.

The only driver that posted lap times comparable to the Team Penske brigade was Kyle Busch in the #18. As most people are aware, Busch is one win away from #200 which would be a monumental moment for the sport. Busch is a 3-time winner in Fontana which includes back to back wins in 2013 and 2014. When you consider the “Big 3” from 2018 or even discuss the best guys thus far in 2019, I think Kyle Busch is probably at the top of the list. Judging by what we saw earlier today, that trend should continue into Sunday.

For the rest of the “favorites”, I was not impressed with either Kevin Harvick nor Kyle Larson. Harvick has produced some quality finishes this season with 4th place finishes at both Atlanta and Las Vegas. However, the #4 team has not shown the “elite” speed that they are accustomed to showing. Harvick was solid but not great in practices. Meanwhile, Kyle Larson was possibly the least impressive of all the “favorites”. Larson’s #42 car fires off well but simply cannot maintain the speed. Both Larson and teammate Kurt Busch were complaining of similar handling issues in final practice. I am not sure if the issues are setup based or just something the entire organization is struggling with currently. However, it was obvious that those cars were struggling especially after 7-8 laps where they started showing more fall off than their nearest competitors.

From a betting standpoint, I may target more betting match-ups than normal this week. Based on odds, there is not a lot of value in the win markets which really hurts the ROI that I like to maintain on future bets. Additionally, I really like targeting match-ups at Auto Club Speedway because I think the conditions are better for the handicapper that knows their stuff. Among the drivers I think bettors should target in H2H markets, I believe Erik Jones and Ryan Blaney are two drivers that should bring value in all match-ups. Despite having issues last week, Jones and the #20 continues to show sneaky speed and I think that is the case again this week. Jones’ two finishes at Fontana have been 12th and then 7th last year. So he has successfully tackled this tough conditions and he has the speed to do it again. For Blaney, I simply had to mention him again for betting value in match-ups. I took Blaney on openers at +2150 and he reopened at +800 following Saturday’s practices. While his odds for the win have been saturated, he still has some value in match-ups because I believe he is a legitimate sleeper for Sunday that will likely be paired against mid-tier drivers in match-ups.

Graphs below reflect the final run in Happy Hour. *Lap times are mapped to begin with the final run at the onset of new tires. Most teams began with consecutive runs at the beginning of practice, took a break to make changes to their cars, and ended practice with one final run on new tires. These graphs below reflect the latter lap times.

Draftkings Auto Club 400 Betting Predictions

The good news about qualifying being another disaster is that starting positions are varied throughout the field. Austin Dillon has shown some speed this week but I don’t think I can trust him from the pole position. I don’t expect he will lead a ton of laps and then the negative place differential does not benefit fantasy owners. Among the favorites, I like Brad Keselowski and Martin Truex. Keselowski appears to have one of the best cars in the field and will be starting from the 13th position. Truex’s 27th starting spot gives the #19 car plenty of upside even if we don’t know his true ceiling.

Erik Jones and Ryan Blaney who I mentioned above in match-up purposes are both solid fantasy choices for Sunday. Both drivers have price tags in the lower $8,000s range and should finish better than they start barring unforeseen misfortune. A few flier options include the likes of Ryan Preece, William Byron, and Matt Tift. Byron’s price tag has slipped way down to the point he is underappreciated. Meanwhile, Preece and Tift are drivers that I think can make a difference from the driver’s seat on Sunday and better their finishing position from where they are starting by a good bit. I would consider all of those driver’s for salary relief options in fantasy.

2019 Auto Club 400 Race Picks

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*Final

Joey Logano +850 (1.25 units)
Martin Truex Jr +800 (1.25 units) *early play
Ryan Blaney +2150 (.75 unit) *early play

Parlays

Noah Gragson +180 over John Hunter Nemechek
Brad Keselowski +445 wins Auto Club 400
Risking 1 unit to win: +1425

Kyle Busch +345 wins Auto Club 400
Paul Menard +120 over Ryan Newman
Risking 1.25 units to win: +1100

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Ryan Blaney -145 over Aric Almirola (3 units)
Joey Logano -115 over Kevin Harvick (2 units)
Martin Truex Jr +100 over Kyle Larson (2 units)
Chase Elliott +100 over Clint Bowyer (2 units)
Erik Jones +400 finishes Top 5 (1 unit) *odds courtesy of Bovada
Erik Jones +285 wins Group C (Ku. Busch, Bowyer, Almirola) (1 unit)
Daniel Hemric +270 wins Group F (Dibenedetto, Buescher, and Preece) (1 unit)