2019 AAA Texas 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday November 3rd, 3:16PM (EST) at Texas Motor Speedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

Just 3 races remain in the 2019 season and with each passing week the intensity surrounding the championship intensifies. On Sunday, NASCAR’s best showcase their talent on the fastest 1.5 mile track in the sport with the running of the AAA Texas 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. Earlier today, Kevin Harvick put the #4 Busch Beer Ford on the pole with a blistering lap of 189.707mph and will have the luxury of leading the field to the green flag. Harvick has won 2 of the last 4 races at Texas including last year’s AAA Texas 500 and enters Sunday as the leading favorite to earn a championship bid to Homestead. We breakdown Harvick’s chances and discuss the best betting options with our 2019 AAA Texas 500 race picks!

If you missed the Xfinity Series preview earlier today, I basically broke down reasons why Texas Motor Speedway is not the best handicapping track. The track was repaved back in 2017 and holds a ton of grip which leads to high speeds with minimal tire wear. As a result, raw speed/aero advantages remain king and we rarely see big differences from short run to long run speed. With speed being the main ingredient for success and the top drivers within fractions of each other, track position is also extremely important at Texas. We saw these exact circumstances unfold in the Xfinity Series’ O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 earlier today. Both Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell had the fastest cars but had difficulty getting back to the front when they lost track position after pit strategy. Reddick was actually caught up in a wreck trying to fight his way back through the field. Bell was able to get back to the lead and capture the victory.

The reason I am pointing this out is to show why this style of racing is not ideal for bettors. The fastest cars will be the normal favorites that yield unfavorable odds and the battle for track position provides more risk than reward. As a result, my betting strategy for this weekend remains conservative. In that Xfinity Series preview, I also predicted that your Stewart-Haas Racing and Joe Gibbs Racing teams would be the likely betting targets going into the weekend because those teams have typically produced the best raw speed throughout the year. Along with Harvick’s pole lap for Stewart-Haas Racing, the JGR threats of Erik Jones and Denny Hamlin qualified in the 2nd and 3rd positions. Therefore, I am not backing away from my expectations surrounding the SHR and JGR teams. We simply need to identify the best from both teams to provide the bulk of our betting targets.

Practice Observations

Because of the circumstances surrounding Texas Motor Speedway, practice speeds will receive extra attention this week. I believe track history is always important in handicapping but when you visit a newly paved track that requires optimum speed for success; track history does not guarantee that teams have brought another fast car this weekend. Instead, we should give extra value to practice speeds and the teams that have continued to show good speed on similar layouts in recent weeks.

In practices on Friday, I thought the Stewart-Haas Racing cars were most impressive. Kevin Harvick and Clint Bowyer were likely the best in terms of overall speed especially over the course of several laps. Those cars were really quick each and every lap. Aric Almirola was also pretty impressive but I would not put him on the same level as the #4 and #14. Outside of SHR, Denny Hamlin was probably the best opposing threat. Hamlin won the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 back in March and has backed up that performance with great speed all weekend. Hamlin was as good as anyone in practices and will be starting from a threatening position at the front of the field.

Among the rest of the JGR cars, Erik Jones and Martin Truex were both solid. I’m not sure if either showed the “best” speed but I expect both cars to be strong on Sunday in race conditions. If you want to look for potential surprises outside of the SHR and JGR camps, let me suggest looking at the Chip Ganassi Racing cars of Kurt Busch and Kyle Larson. I think Larson was probably the biggest surprise in Happy Hour if we are basing observations on trending expectations on the 1.5 mile surfaces. Larson not only had great speed but seemed to get better as the laps were laid down. For Kurt Busch, I did not think he was quite as strong as the #42 but still impressive nevertheless. Perhaps the #42 and #1 cars provide some sharp value ahead of Sunday’s green flag.

Drivers to Fade

I have mentioned a bunch of teams above that impressed in practices. One team that I have not mentioned is the Penske Racing Fords of Ryan Blaney, Joey Logano, and Brad Keselowski. The reason for that is pretty simple; they looked bad in practices. With the exception of Blaney, the #22 and #2 cars did not show any speed. This statement should not be surprising because we have seen Team Penske’s raw speed fade as the season has progressed. I don’t believe this is a situation where we are going to see race speed from trimmed out and more downforce change expectations on Sunday. I think Team Penske is legitimately struggling. Blaney has been the best car of the stable in recent weeks while the others have been worth fading especially at the intermediate style tracks. Therefore, I would encourage everyone to look for fade opportunities against Keselowski and Logano on Sunday.

2019 AAA Texas 500 Optimal Lineup

2019 AAA Texas 400 Race Picks

*Final*

Kyle Larson +1100 (1 unit)
Erik Jones +2000 (.5 unit)
Kurt Busch +2000 (.5 unit)
Clint Bowyer +2500 (.5 unit)
Aric Almirola +4400 (.5 unit)

Two Team Parlay

Christopher Bell +170 wins O’Reilly Auto Parts 300 (win)
Kevin Harvick +385 wins AAA Texas 500
Risking 1 unit to win: +1200

H2H Match-Ups and Props

Kyle Larson -155 over Brad Keselowski (2 units)