2019 1000bulbs.com 500 Race Picks

NASCAR Monster Energy Cup Series Betting Predictions
Sunday October 13th, 2:18PM (EST) at Talladega Superspeedway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

NASCAR returns to the high banks of Talladega Superspeedway on Sunday with the running of the 1000bulbs.com 500. Tomorrow’s race serves as the ultimate wildcard event in the Round of 12 in the playoffs and could provide a ton of chaos in the race for the championship. Earlier today, Chase Elliott won the pole for the 1000bulbs.com 500 with a lap of 192.707mph. Elliott actually led a group of Hendrick Motorsports teammates that all qualified in the top 4 positions. After a setback at Dover, Elliott needs some Talladega magic just as we seen back in April when Elliott won the GEICO 500 at Talladega. While Elliott will be one of the main favorites again on Sunday, we also know there are no “favorites” once the green flag waves at a superspeedway event. As we prepare for an unpredictable and chaotic afternoon at Talladega, we take the time to provide our best betting options with our 2019 1000bulbs.com 500 race picks!

Talladega has traditionally been the more unpredictable superspeedway venue compared to Daytona. In fact, there have been 5 different winners in the last 5 Talladega races. If you expand the date range further, Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski have clearly stood out as the best drivers at this prestigious venue. Both Team Penske drivers have 3 wins each in the last 10 races at Talladega. Keselowski leads all active drivers with 5 career wins in just 21 career starts. Keselowski’s career win percentage of 23.8% is currently the best all-time at Talladega and even better than the great Dale Earnhardt Sr. who won 10 times in 44 career starts. Outside of Keselowski, Logano has won 3 times in the same amount of starts (21). Collectively those two drivers are the best recurring drivers for these Talladega races if you go by historical trends.

Betting Strategy

If you missed my Truck Series preview yesterday, I basically simplified my philosophy of superspeedway betting. Without repeating any of that information, let me just quote my comments once again: “Any time the superspeedway races roll around, my main focal point is always geared towards “value.” Because there are so many potential winners in this style of racing, it is always a good idea to downsize risk per bet and broaden the amount of overall bets. Instead of taking 3-4 drivers at 1 unit each, take some half unit and ¾ unit plays which allow 5-6 drivers or more. Therefore, we allow more opportunity based on variance while keeping our total risk relatively the same. I sincerely believe that is the best long-term strategy for superspeedway racing because you are staying within the normal range of risk while maximizing profit opportunities.”

Despite missing out in yesterday’s Truck Series race, the betting philosophy towards superspeedway racing remains the same. I am approaching this race like a freeroll because we have had so much success in recent weeks and honestly all season. I am not going to carried away with excessive risks but I am not going to hold back to simply play conservative either. Depending on where you are personally with your bank roll, you can adjust your strategy. Just remember this style of racing provides high risk, so “value” should be the primary goal when constructing any type of betting card. If for any reason, my subscribers are “needing” a win this week for lost money in other sports or different plays (outside of my own) then let me make a suggestion. Sit this one out! You never want to approach Talladega “needing” a victory and this is the least favorable handicapping race on the schedule. Now if you have profit stacked up like I have this season that you are not worried about possibly losing a few units, it’s a good race to bet because of the favorable odds and potential for a big payout!

Betting Targets

Betting targets for this race are not derived from practice speeds, nor qualifying positions, and honestly not even from average finishing positions. In these types of races, you simply have to bet on the best drivers that are tailored to superspeedway racing. One of the key pieces of information that I tend to review is loop data stats because it provides a pretty good idea of where drivers typically run at the superspeedway races. We know that actual finishing positions can easily be the result of a late race incident, last lap move, or some other anomaly. However, the average driver ratings paint a better picture of how the driver performed throughout the entire race. The top 10 drivers over the last 5 Talladega races are listed below:

Driver	Average Rating	Laps Led
Joey Logano	108.9	176
Kurt Busch	98.8	116
Brad Keselowski	94.2	90
Chase Elliott	92	70
Kyle Busch	91.8	57
Alex Bowman	91.7	34
Ricky Stenhouse Jr	90.2	40
Aric Almirola	90	28
Ryan Blaney	89.8	37
Daniel Hemric	85.5	0

As you can see, Joey Logano leads all drivers with an average driver rating of 108.9 which is extremely impressive. It’s difficult for a driver’s average rating to eclipse 100 at normal oval tracks. To show that type of strength at a place like Talladega is thoroughly impressive. Likewise, there are some other names that stand out on that list including Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman, Kurt Busch, and even Daniel Hemric that may be rather surprising. I personally believe the Hendrick Motorsports cars should be given elevated consideration for Sunday. Those cars qualified in the top 4 positions but more importantly they are started to become really good drivers at this style of racing. Elliott and Bowman have proved their talents and I would expect Byron to stay upfront tomorrow as well which provides some potential intermediate-range options. Brothers Kurt and Kyle Busch should also be given the same consideration. After several subpar performances in recent weeks, the Busch brothers enter Talladega with bounce back potential.

Aside from simple loop data stats, the best betting targets are the guys that have some proven success at superspeedway racing and provide “value” in terms of betting odds. In some weird way, there are not many “bad” betting options as long as you are getting value. If you look at both Daytona and the April Talladega race under this current package, guys like William Byron, Matt Dibenedetto, Jimmie Johnson, and Austin Dillon provide some good dark horse betting options. I know that this is the 2nd time I have brought Byron’s name up but he has posted excellent performances in the superspeedway races all year. I really like Byron’s chances on Sunday especially if the Hendrick cars can find a way to work together. Unfortunately all of the Hendrick Motorsports drivers odds have lost value after today’s strong qualifying effort.

Drives to Fade

To avoid more repeated dialogue, Talladega does not provide the ideal racing for handicappers meaning H2H bets are probably worth avoiding this week. I will likely try to find a single H2H to incorporate into a parlay with the heavily favored threats of Logano/Keselowski because I really want those talents in my line-up. Therefore I technically don’t have any drivers to “fade” for true handicapping purposes like we would see on traditional ovals. Instead, I am just going to mention a pair of drivers that have had terrible luck on the superspeedways this year. Those drivers include Kevin Harvick and Ryan Blaney. Harvick has failed to crack the top 25 in all 3 prior events in 2019. Meanwhile Blaney has finished 30th or worse in 2 of the 3 events. Both drivers have failed to run upfront consistently and Blaney has notoriously underperformed throughout his career at Talladega. So if you are going to attempt to find a match-up/driver to fade for Sunday, both Blaney and Harvick are high profile names that could provide value in fade situations.

2019 1000bulbs.com 500 Optimal Lineup

Please understand this week’s optimal lineup comes with high-risk due to superspeedway style racing. The following line-up focuses on advantageous place differential potential combined with loop data performance for floor/ceiling analysis. Either way, we will need luck to be on our side and our drivers to avoid trouble

2019 1000bulbs.com 500 Race Picks

*Final*

Denny Hamlin +1540 (.75 unit)
Kyle Busch +1800 (.5 unit)
Kurt Busch +2200 (.5 unit)
William Byron +2200 (.5 unit)
Alex Bowman +2500 (.5 unit)
Erik Jones +3300 (.25 unit)
Austin Dillon +6600 (.25 unit) *early play
Daniel Hemric +8800 (.25 unit) *early play

Two Team Parlay

Brad Keselowski/Joey Logano +425 wins 1000bulbs.com 500
Ryan Preece +135 over Ryan Newman
Risking 1 unit to win: +1130