2018 Whelen Trusted to Perform 200 Race Picks

NASCAR Xfinity Series Betting Preview
Saturday November 10th, 3:45PM (EST) at ISM Raceway
by Jay Horne of NASCARWagers.com, NASCAR Handicapping Service

On Saturday the Xfinity Series will get the opportunity to solidify the final 4 drivers that will move onto Homestead-Miami Speedway for a chance to win the championship. As it stands, Cole Custer is the only driver locked into the championship round thanks to his win last week at Texas which leaves 7 drivers fighting for the final 3 spots to advance to Homestead. Needless to say, time is running out and championship bids must be earned. All that stands in the way is 200 miles of racing at ISM Raceway for the running of the Whelen Trusted to Perform 200. We take this time to discuss a bit of the playoff scenario and focus heavily on the drivers who should bring some betting opportunities to our lineups. Take a look as we dive into our preview and provide our 2018 Whelen Trusted to Perform 200 race picks!

Currently Justin Allgaier and Christopher Bell sit below the cutoff line as tomorrow’s race approaches. The possibility that both drivers could fail to advance is nearly incomprehensible based on the fact the two have dominated the season with 11 combined victories. Yet troubles in the opening two races has Allgaier 12 points back of the cut off while Bell enters Saturday in a must-win situation. From a points perspective, Tyler Reddick, Elliott Sadler, and Daniel Hemric are all in pretty good situation within 8 points of each other and 12 points ahead of the cut off. Those drivers need a solid run and most importantly to avoid trouble. Meanwhile, guys like Justin Allgaier and Matt Tift are within 14 points. They need some of those front guys to have trouble and they can still point their way to Homestead. For Christopher Bell and Austin Cindric, they have to win to advance.

Now that the championship scenario is out of the way, let’s discuss what we should expect in the Xfinity Series’ 2nd stop at ISM Raceway. Back in March, Brad Keselowski scored the victory in the first stop at ISM Raceway. Justin Allgaier Christopher Bell were both top 5 finishers among the Xfinity Series regulars. Of course this week, we do not have to worry about Cup Series guys and that has many looking at Justin Allgaier as a potential favorite. Allgaier won at ISM Raceway in 2017 and his runner-up finish in the spring has produced high expectations for the weekend. However, the #7 team struggled in practices this morning not only with speed but with consistency. In fact, I am not even sure if Allgaier was among the top 5 cars in practice and while surely that can change by tomorrow’s checkered flag; I am currently looking in another direction for potential winners.

The guy that stood out the most in practices was none other than Christopher Bell. The #20 team has to win to advance to Homestead and their speed in practices on Friday proved they are on their way towards accomplishing that goal. The #20 car was head and shoulders the best car throughout practices consistently 2-3 tenths to the good of the nearest competitors. Now things are surely going to get wild and chaotic tomorrow so you have to consider the potential risk of things not going according to plan. However if the #20 can stay out of trouble, they will have an excellent chance to win unless things completely unravel based on the speed I saw earlier today.

If Bell somehow falters, there are a few drivers that could sneak into contention for a victory. Unlike some weeks, I only think a handful of drivers have a legitimate shot at the victory this week. Late race restarts could change that possibility but I am sticking to my guns at this point. Based on speed in practices, recent form, and driving styles, I believe the drivers with the best opportunity to play spoiler are Daniel Hemric and Ryan Preece. Hemric should be no surprise because he has been battling for victories nearly every week and somehow is still winless. However, Ryan Preece is a really sharp pick for Saturday. I watched Preece’s lap times closely today. The #18 did not have great takeoff speed but really looked really good on the latter part of the run. Hemric was more closer to Christopher Bell’s lap times but Preece is a guy that I expect to be a factor during the 2nd half of tomorrow’s race.

Xfinity Draftkings Fantasy Racing Predictions for Phoenix

For the fantasy players looking for help on Saturday, I think you have to lock in the #20 of Christopher Bell despite the steep price tag. This could be a dominating type of afternoon especially if Bell qualifies at the front. I think you should be able to steal some value with Ryan Preece as a driver on the bottom end of the favorites. From there, you really have to start paying attention to value potential. Make sure there are not any surprises in qualifying tomorrow before finalizing lineups.

If there are no surprises from qualifying, consider Matt Tift another intermediate driver that should return value. Tift has improved his finishing position in each career start at Phoenix including a 7th place finish back in the spring. The #2 has been fast all year and I expect they will have an opportunity to flirt with a top 5 finish. Don’t be surprised if the team pulls some strategy moves to make up the 14 points they trail in the championship hunt. If you need a few fliers to help provide salary cap relief, include considerations for drivers like Jeremy Clements and Ryan Reed.

I pointed out the fact that Clements has been running really well last week and while his qualifying effort hurt his potential last week; he has still produced more than 30 points in 6 of the last 8 races. Reed is a little higher priced but he also is a notorious poor qualifier giving his ceiling more potential. I thought Reed has some really decent speed in practices and therefore he is on more radar from a fantasy perspective. We will just have to wait until qualifying concludes to determine if the value remains.

2018 Whelen Trusted to Perform 200 Race Picks

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*Final

Daniel Hemric +650 (1.25 units)
Ryan Preece +1000 (1 unit)

H2H Match-ups

Christopher Bell +175 wins Whelen Trusted to Perform 200
Team 2 – Open
Risking 1.25 units to win: TBD

H2H Match-ups

Christopher Bell -115 over Justin Allgaier (5 units)